The elephant in the room regarding a vaccine (particularly next year)

[annabel85]

The vaccine is what we've all been clinging too, but it's going to a be a long and limited roll out as there's only so many doses, at least in the short term. And along with health workers the main priority is rightly going to be the elderly over the winter and spring if and when it becomes available.

The elderly have had to pretty much shut themselves away since March - or at least advised to. This vaccine would enable the elderly to be about and about again, socialise and see their families.

However, the elephant in the room, is what does this mean for the working age population? Are we just going to be sitting ducks so things can be back to normal in spring/summer? Maybe this is just what will have to happen, but a lot of the population who won't be eligible for this vaccine for a long time won't just be able to switch off the health anxiety that has been drummed in over Covid. People are terrified of catching it and it's not going anywhere. Many just want to get back to normal, which is perfectly natural, many more aren't going to be any less scared just because Mum or Gran has had a vaccine.

Someone made a tongue in cheek post yesterday about how you'll get posts along the lines of 'MIL has had vaccine and wants to do xyz but we don't feel comfortable'.

Just to add, the 'sitting ducks' is where school teachers for example are now and still haven't been given any priority with a vaccine.

I can just see the MN msgs:

"I can't believe Doris out socialising normally ! How dare she! She hasn't had the vaccine because it wasn't offered to under 50s. I don't care if Doris allowed to socialise nowadays, she should lock herself away or get a private vaccine instead because she is probably out murdering with her reckless selfish behaviour."

What needs to happen after the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated is for the government to not release figures on cases etc.

If it gets to a point where they truly want us to get back to normal they can't keep reminding us about it. At the end of the day once they chances of the NHS being overwhelmed has diminished ( which will I'll be the case once those demographics have been vaccinated) there is no reason we can't go back to normal.

@Forgetmenot157

What needs to happen after the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated is for the government to not release figures on cases etc.

If it gets to a point where they truly want us to get back to normal they can't keep reminding us about it. At the end of the day once they chances of the NHS being overwhelmed has diminished ( which will I'll be the case once those demographics have been vaccinated) there is no reason we can't go back to normal.

This is the thing. People have had it drummed into them all year that Covid is the plague and needs to be avoided at all costs.

To go from that one minute to going back to the bear pit of the open plan office again and wider society with no social distancing in place, or masks on public transport etc will be a tough sell.

The divide will be get back to normal versus keep social distancing and masks indoors and on public transport.

The elderly have had to pretty much shut themselves away since March - or at least advised to

Nope - that was the advice to the CEV (no age categories) and even that was eased in June and suspended in August, and just brought back in 'lite' form with this lockdown

It's been interesting to read the difference in threads about the need to 'protect the vulnerable' so that everyone else (low risk) can get back to near normal when a) the only protection was to isolate them and b) when anactual protective jab is in the offing

We will have instant testing by spring so that will open up society a lot for the rest of us.

This was my thought too... everyone sounds so excited but I can't see anything changing for me for a long time yet. My reasons for not wanting to catch covid are not going to change so until I'm vaccinated, I will need to continue what now feels my new normal anyway.

What the news has done is to convince ppl that there is just this one vaccine that's close. That's not the case. There's 3 maybe 4. If you look at the articles on BBC news you can see the UK has spent on more than 1 vaccine.

I think they are wrong on who to vaccinate first. Most elderly who aren't in nursing and residential homes that I know are going out and about anyway. Going to shops wearing masks and trying to social distance, they seem to be doing well.
I think first should be NHS and social care workers (so they can carry on caring for the sick and elderly) followed by, working people with medical problems regardless of age (so many are parents to young children or work as key workers), teachers, and other key workers, such as shop workers, transport etc. Then go through the ages getting younger and younger.

Agreed @Forgetmenot157 - they dont tell us the flu cases every year do they?! If they did none of us would go out...

There is more than one vaccine coming.

It's been interesting to read the difference in threads about the need to 'protect the vulnerable' so that everyone else (low risk) can get back to near normal

I'm talking about what will be the big difference though between those who do just want to get back to the normal - and don't fear Covid - and those who still want to take precautions and be careful.

That difference is very much there now, but the difference now is the rules and guidance - regarding social distancing/masks/restrictions -are in place whether you like it or not. Once that flips back the other way towards normality, you'll still have a lot of people with major health anxiety.

It's just a mess. I've stuck to the rules 100% because I don't want either of my parents catching it because of me. I have anxiety and it has been worsened greatly over lockdown.

They have both said they will get the vaccine as soon as they can, but they might not be for a long while yet.

And then the fact that it's 90% effective scares me. So 1 in 10 will still be able to be infected - and there's thought that people can still spread the virus even if they are themselves immune.

This isn't enough for me to get 'back to normal', I don't think.

It's not enough for me to believe that my parents are safe.

A lot of people will be applying for jobs in their local nursing homes.

This isn't enough for me to get 'back to normal', I don't think

You won't ever have normal then. 90% is amazing. It's way more than expected.

@LindaEllen

It's just a mess. I've stuck to the rules 100% because I don't want either of my parents catching it because of me. I have anxiety and it has been worsened greatly over lockdown.

They have both said they will get the vaccine as soon as they can, but they might not be for a long while yet.

And then the fact that it's 90% effective scares me. So 1 in 10 will still be able to be infected - and there's thought that people can still spread the virus even if they are themselves immune.

This isn't enough for me to get 'back to normal', I don't think.

It's not enough for me to believe that my parents are safe.

No vaccine is 100% effective. Most childhood vaccines have an efficacy of 85-95%, includes the measles vaccine. 90% is incredibly high.

@Dumpypumpy

We will have instant testing by spring so that will open up society a lot for the rest of us.

I hope so but do you have a source for this?

@LindaEllen

It's just a mess. I've stuck to the rules 100% because I don't want either of my parents catching it because of me. I have anxiety and it has been worsened greatly over lockdown.

They have both said they will get the vaccine as soon as they can, but they might not be for a long while yet.

And then the fact that it's 90% effective scares me. So 1 in 10 will still be able to be infected - and there's thought that people can still spread the virus even if they are themselves immune.

This isn't enough for me to get 'back to normal', I don't think.

It's not enough for me to believe that my parents are safe.

The thing for me is I won't feel comfortable around my parents at least until they've had the vaccine. Not without taking every precaution.

As they're both barely 60, they're way down the list.

Statistically only a few hundred people under 50 have died so actually I disagree, they’ll start with care home and nhs workers, plus the very old, as they are the ones actually statistically at risk of spreading it to highly vulnerable people, or at risk themselves. The rest of us are just not at risk. Statistically. Which is what logical decisions should be made on. If people want to lock themselves up for a one in a million (or less) chance they’ll die or be seriously ill from it, that’s their choice but it’s not logical. I think most are comfortable with the risk, however, certainly everyone I know is.

@FedUpAtHomeTroels

I think they are wrong on who to vaccinate first. Most elderly who aren't in nursing and residential homes that I know are going out and about anyway. Going to shops wearing masks and trying to social distance, they seem to be doing well. I think first should be NHS and social care workers (so they can carry on caring for the sick and elderly) followed by, working people with medical problems regardless of age (so many are parents to young children or work as key workers), teachers, and other key workers, such as shop workers, transport etc. Then go through the ages getting younger and younger.

Care home staff are in the first priority category. Healthcare workers and other social care workers in the second.

The older population may be doing a reasonable job of keeping themselves safe, but age is the biggest factor by far, far more so than being younger with one of many underlying conditions. Eg 15% of people over 80 who were diagnosed with it in Spain died, 7% of people with diabetes died (don’t be alarmed older and diabetes people, these figures are from the first wave when only very poorly people would be being diagnosed).

It does seem odd though that those who are younger but clinically extremely vulnerable are lower down the list, below all age 65 and over. Given they were told in March not to even go in the garden!

Have they even proven the vaccine to work in the very elderly, with flu they have much less of a response to that vaccine?

I think we will have to socially distance while it's rolled out. As the more vulnerable and medical staff are vaccinatated we may be able to return to more normal, less distanced activity.

So not sitting sucks as I don't think we will be fully normal while it's rolled out.

@Fischliweiss

I think we will have to socially distance while it's rolled out. As the more vulnerable and medical staff are vaccinatated we may be able to return to more normal, less distanced activity.

So not sitting sucks as I don't think we will be fully normal while it's rolled out.

That's probably right, but it's hard enough to get people to follow the guidelines now. Tempering people's expectations through the spring and particularly summer will be difficult, there's already been a lot of euphoria.

It's great news on the vaccine but Covid isn't going to just go away in 2021.

The only reason I’m following the rules is so I don’t spread it to anyone elderly or vulnerable, so once they are vaccinated I will be more than happy to get back to normal. I don’t know anyone young and generally healthy who is concerned about catching it themselves.
The reason the elderly have been prioritised over those younger but clinically vulnerable is that age is the biggest risk factor.

i think the thinking is by eventually vaccinating everyone 50+, plus younger CEV people, plus health and social care bods (I'm guessing that would amount to perhaps 40 or 50% of the population, wild guess) the pressure on the NHS in dealing with this will be enormously reduced which is the main reason for the lockdowns.
At that point, there may well be an argument to let it carry on spreading throughout the younger and healthier (not saying I support that, but I imagine it's a view). I suspect things will look a lot better in spring/early summer next year but actually getting rid of this will take years.