The elephant in the room regarding a vaccine (particularly next year)

[annabel85]

The vaccine is what we've all been clinging too, but it's going to a be a long and limited roll out as there's only so many doses, at least in the short term. And along with health workers the main priority is rightly going to be the elderly over the winter and spring if and when it becomes available.

The elderly have had to pretty much shut themselves away since March - or at least advised to. This vaccine would enable the elderly to be about and about again, socialise and see their families.

However, the elephant in the room, is what does this mean for the working age population? Are we just going to be sitting ducks so things can be back to normal in spring/summer? Maybe this is just what will have to happen, but a lot of the population who won't be eligible for this vaccine for a long time won't just be able to switch off the health anxiety that has been drummed in over Covid. People are terrified of catching it and it's not going anywhere. Many just want to get back to normal, which is perfectly natural, many more aren't going to be any less scared just because Mum or Gran has had a vaccine.

Someone made a tongue in cheek post yesterday about how you'll get posts along the lines of 'MIL has had vaccine and wants to do xyz but we don't feel comfortable'.

@HelloMissus

OP I agree that it will be a tough gig to convince some people who have bought the narrative that Covid is life threatening to all of us.

But as we saw in the Summer - enough folk want to go out to eat, to meet friends, to return to work.
I guarantee that if they opened the theatres or the football stadia tomorrow they’d fill up.
If they said we could meet up with our families for Xmas, most people would snatch their hands off.

Yeah. At the moment there's those who have been terrified by all the fear and those who aren't really anxious and just want to live their normal life.

Right now, the issue is getting those who just want to live their normal life to follow the rules. Down the road the issue will be getting those who have been left terrified - and have strong health anxiety - to get back to to normal.

When people have said on MN that we need to live with the virus they have been jumped on by posters calling them granny killers etc.

It's interesting now that the vaccine is near but most of them won't get it and when they do there is still a low risk they might still get infected the realisation has hit them that we will have to live with the risks.

Personally I will be happy to get back to normal and take my risks. I am at the bottom of the list to get the vaccine but that's life. The only thing that will annoy me is if we can't travel without it and then I will be doing everything I can to get it privately.

@JamSarnie

When people have said on MN that we need to live with the virus they have been jumped on by posters calling them granny killers etc.

It's interesting now that the vaccine is near but most of them won't get it and when they do there is still a low risk they might still get infected the realisation has hit them that we will have to live with the risks.

Personally I will be happy to get back to normal and take my risks. I am at the bottom of the list to get the vaccine but that's life. The only thing that will annoy me is if we can't travel without it and then I will be doing everything I can to get it privately.

Agreed.

Personally I will be happy to get back to normal and take my risks. I am at the bottom of the list to get the vaccine but that's life. The only thing that will annoy me is if we can't travel without it and then I will be doing everything I can to get it privately

Agree 100%

And not because I’m desperate for a week on the beach in Benidorm (although there’s nothing wrong with that), but because my family live abroad.

Yes it will be like herd immunity for the under 50s, vaccination for the rest.

That is how things will be 'back to normal'

This vaccine is very likely to grant little or no immunity to Covid 19. What it does is reduce the symptoms in vulnerable people to little or nothing.

It simply isn't economically viable to give it to those who aren't Clinically Vulnerable because the risk of serious illness is tiny.

@WhoopsSomethingWentWrong

Personally I will be happy to get back to normal and take my risks. I am at the bottom of the list to get the vaccine but that's life. The only thing that will annoy me is if we can't travel without it and then I will be doing everything I can to get it privately

Agree 100%

Agree in terms of myself, but as I live with someone vulnerable, I won't feel comfortable doing much until they've had the vaccine, while the virus is still widely circulating. It wasn't too bad in June-August when the rates here were near zero, but then it was social distancing and masks everywhere anyway. The more people mix the quicker the virus will circulate. We saw that with the Uni students and colleges in September.

Everyone is going to have their own personal circumstances.

This vaccine is very likely to grant little or no immunity to Covid 19. What it does is reduce the symptoms in vulnerable people to little or nothing.

It's an antidote which is what we've needed. A vaccine to make you immune isn't going to happen in 6-9 months, if ever.

The other gamechanger would be to find a cure for those who are already ill with it. That really would get us back to normal.

Yes it will be like herd immunity for the under 50s

You don't get natural long term immunity to Covid 19. In the short term we will probably need to revaccinate the vulnerable every year or few years.

In theory there may never be a vaccine giving sterilising immunity but eventually it will wax and wain each year like other seasonal flus.

I think there are many people that will need help with health anxiety. I agree with PP that at some point the media need to dial down daily reports on cases and deaths and this will help. We also need some help with analysis of risk and rationalising Covid in line our personal risks we take in every day life without a second thought.

A vaccine to make you immune isn't going to happen in 6-9 months, if ever.

I agree. I was just being clear about why the suggestions to vaccinate some groups of young people first are silly. I think some people overestimate what a vaccine will achieve but I agree it's great news.

@Jaxhog

I think they are wrong on who to vaccinate first. Most elderly who aren't in nursing and residential homes that I know are going out and about anyway. Going to shops wearing masks and trying to social distance, they seem to be doing well.

Rubbish! Rather than arguing who should go first and sharpening our elbows, let's just be patient until it's our turn.

Well I'm top of the list so would be willing to let more vulerable under 50's go ahead of me. I'm really not as vulnerable as those who have had transplants or cancer treatment. I'm not sharpening my elbows at all.

Interesting to see this change from protecting the elderly till they get the vaccine first!

Not so altruistic now hey?

It also depends on what you mean as working age population. With twenty-somethings, where their individual risk is very low, the only moral argument that there's been to keep them compliant has been the whole "don't kill your granny" theme. Once Granny has been vaccinated, why should they stay in and behave??

To be completely honest, I think we should all just be immensely grateful and relieved that these scientists have discovered a vaccine.

There is hope on the horizon - we need to hold on to that thought.

I think things will just snowball, the older population will get the early vaccine, people will relax a bit because their older/ill relatives are now not at risk. Then maybe another vaccine will come along and then another and more and more people will feel confident enough to get out and sit next to people on the bus and at the cinema ect.

I don't feel like a sitting duck. I am happy for people on the coal face to be prioritised for the vaccine and, with each person who gets it, the chances of transmission within the general population go down. As it stands I am still teaching as normal.

We have to wear face masks in corridors but not classrooms and not outside. If it gives some people some comfort then that is fine, but I don't believe that it achieves any meaningful reduction in the likelihood of transmission. I live in an area with very low levels of Covid and I am aware that this can make people complacent, but I am fit and healthy and I follow the guidance. There is no point in worrying beyond that.

I don't think it'll be back to normal for any one group just because they get the vaccine.

If I understand correctly, the risk of death for anyone under about 60 is literally not above normal risk of death from anything else among that cohort, so we're not sitting ducks for death if we don't have a vaccine, but I imagine there is an issue of, as with measles vaccines, the immunity may be compromised if not a large enough % of people are vaccinated.

We'll all still have to stick with some degree of social distancing and wearing masks through 2021, even if there is a vaccine, because using it is going to be something of an experiment and we can't risk it going exponential if it doesn't work and everyone's 'gone back to normal'

I think this a good sign that next year is likely to be better than last but certainly no 'back to normal by spring!' like the papers were claiming today.

@BeaMends - I agree. Even if it's not 'the end' it's definitely light at the end of the tunnel that we can be grateful for.

@whiteonesugar

Agreed *@Forgetmenot157* - they dont tell us the flu cases every year do they?! If they did none of us would go out...

I think flue numbers are available. If you don't go out because of that, then you need to learn to evaluate risk.

@MaudesMum

It also depends on what you mean as working age population. With twenty-somethings, where their individual risk is very low, the only moral argument that there's been to keep them compliant has been the whole "don't kill your granny" theme. Once Granny has been vaccinated, why should they stay in and behave??

Yep. I don't think you're going to have much trouble getting the average person to go out again!

If I understand correctly, the risk of death for anyone under about 60 is literally not above normal risk of death from anything else among that cohort

I'm not sure that's quite true. I believe the risk of death for a particular age group is similar to their total risk of death from all other causes- provided early treatment is available. So effectively your risk of death roughly doubles.

For most people that is still very very small but it's calculated at two peaks which represent a small proportion of the population infected.

We'll all still have to stick with some degree of social distancing and wearing masks through 2021

I agree. If we were to vaccinate all CV people and then remove all restrictions we'd have a year or two of rampant Covid 19. That's proabably somewhere around 10 to 50 thousand deaths among the 'young and healthy' population. It might be enough to exceed peak ICU capacity (at which point the death rate increases massively).

My gut feeling is spring/summer will be much better but there will be some restrictions in place next winter too.

I assume that, as more and more people are vaccinated, there will be a community benefit that will help everyone, not just those who have received it.

I would imagine that the community benefits won’t be massive at first, but will grow as mor people are vaccinated.