The elephant in the room regarding a vaccine (particularly next year)

[annabel85]

The vaccine is what we've all been clinging too, but it's going to a be a long and limited roll out as there's only so many doses, at least in the short term. And along with health workers the main priority is rightly going to be the elderly over the winter and spring if and when it becomes available.

The elderly have had to pretty much shut themselves away since March - or at least advised to. This vaccine would enable the elderly to be about and about again, socialise and see their families.

However, the elephant in the room, is what does this mean for the working age population? Are we just going to be sitting ducks so things can be back to normal in spring/summer? Maybe this is just what will have to happen, but a lot of the population who won't be eligible for this vaccine for a long time won't just be able to switch off the health anxiety that has been drummed in over Covid. People are terrified of catching it and it's not going anywhere. Many just want to get back to normal, which is perfectly natural, many more aren't going to be any less scared just because Mum or Gran has had a vaccine.

Someone made a tongue in cheek post yesterday about how you'll get posts along the lines of 'MIL has had vaccine and wants to do xyz but we don't feel comfortable'.

The reduction in the R rate is significant, but also the impact will be on the NHS. Hopefully hospitals will be able to offer the same rate of routine surgeries, with less cancellations or re-scheduling. This will make a huge difference in healthcare and the excess death numbers.

@HeronLanyon

I may be way off with my reckoning but it feels (yes feels) to me that currently I am at an extremely low Risk because I am being even more careful than current regulations demand. Once I am vaccinated - I’m in one of the lower categories but On current thinking I will be vaccinated - it feels as though if I Then go out and about as normal I will be exposing myself to a 10% chance (albeit in a lower incidence reality) - way higher than now.

My first thought was well I’ll just carry on as now surely rather than actually increase my risk by false sense of security.

I may need to rethink my understanding of the maths, proportions and of chance/risk maths !

At least by the time you get round to be vaccinated a lot more will be known about the vaccine and its effectiveness, after health workers and the elderly have had their vaccines.

The difficulty will be expecting vulnerable people to 'go back to normal' before they get the vaccine. Therefore, you might get a situation where people on the vulnerable list (but way down on the vaccine list) become forced to shield until they can get the vaccine, if everything goes back to near normal.

I agree. It all feels messy right now - also it’s good news - just needs some careful government handling (Oo er) and individual risk assessment etc as the situation becomes clearer. Good thread. Thought provoking.

I think things will go back to normal very quickly once they start administering the vaccine. Our company is already taking bookings for events from April onwards at full capacity with no social distancing measures, masks, etc as we expect them to be phased out by then, similar with workplaces too. Concerts, festivals, etc are all looking to go ahead from May onwards next year too.

As long as the logistics and distribution goes well, I can see measures effectively disappearing overnight once 30-40% of those that are vulnerable are vaccinated especially with the onset of Spring.

I feel for those with health anxiety because of the way the media have portrayed Covid over the past year. I do worry for those that might be fearful of returning to the workplace as the unemployment rates are going to be so high that employers will have the pick of the labor pool.

It's seasonal, so vaccine or no vaccine, cases will be vanishingly small by the time we're into spring. Hopefully by next autumn people will be more relaxed.
I'll be very happy to get back to normal and I'm no more worried about the virus than any other cause of death. When your time is up, it's up.

While the hospitals are full with Covid patients the working population is more likely to die or have long term complications due to not getting treatment for something unrelated to Covid than Covid itself.

Getting the vaccine to those likely to need hospital care if they catch Covid and to those working in the NHS is the best way of saving most lives by all causes.

Every person who is vaccinated (or at least 90% of them) is one less person who will contract the virus, one less person to control the virus - thus making it safer for everyone else. I have been shocked by some of the immediate responses to the vaccine - the clamour from some people to push themselves further in front of the queue because they are more essential or more worthy. As with any vaccine, the more people who receive it the better, but even if you personally do not have the vaccine you will be at less risk because of those who have had it.

I am not arguing against having the vaccine by the way, just reminding my self to be patent until I can have it. I know that in my circumstances I will be right down at the bottom of the priority list.

What everybody seems to be avoiding here is explaining how the elephant got into the room in the first place.

An adult elephant wouldn't fit through through a normal-sized door.

... and why does it keep going into people's rooms anyway?

@asifiwould

Every person who is vaccinated (or at least 90% of them) is one less person who will contract the virus, one less person to control the virus - thus making it safer for everyone else. I have been shocked by some of the immediate responses to the vaccine - the clamour from some people to push themselves further in front of the queue because they are more essential or more worthy. As with any vaccine, the more people who receive it the better, but even if you personally do not have the vaccine you will be at less risk because of those who have had it.

I am not arguing against having the vaccine by the way, just reminding my self to be patent until I can have it. I know that in my circumstances I will be right down at the bottom of the priority list.

That's the issue though isn't it. If the vaccine doesn't confer immunity then those of us who aren't vaccinated won't be protected by many people being vaccinated in the community as we are for say measles. I honestly have no idea, will wait and see.

I’m fairly relaxed about covid but won’t be going to a festival until I’m vaccinated, and I don’t expect that until late summer / autumn (late 40s).

@tootyfruitypickle

I’m fairly relaxed about covid but won’t be going to a festival until I’m vaccinated, and I don’t expect that until late summer / autumn (late 40s).

The general consumer confidence angle will be important.

Last July and August I felt confident going to the pub or a restaurant because of all the measures in place. Bearing in mind there was hardly an official case in my area throughout July and August. As soon as it shot up in September I stopped going.

Fear has been relentlessly drummed into people since the start of March. It'll take time for a lot of people to feel confident being in crowds for example; or in a busy shop or pub, or a busy train or on a packed bus. I've barely been within a meter of another person since March outside of my own house.

@minipie

Is nobody worried about possible side effects of this vaccine, especially on people who are already very elderly and/or in poor health ?

I’m all for good news but I am somewhat nervous about this. My mother for example is 72 and having chemotherapy, I cannot imagine she’s going to be comfortable taking a brand new vaccine where any medium and long term side effects are completely unknown.

Of course they are concerned about possible side-effects - that's why it is still being tested and hasn't been authorised for use yet.

@TwoLeftSocksWithHoles

What everybody seems to be avoiding here is explaining how the elephant got into the room in the first place.

An adult elephant wouldn't fit through through a normal-sized door.

... and why does it keep going into people's rooms anyway?

God, I could get flu, I could be hit by a bus, i could... I just want to get back out there and take my chances, knowing there is no risk of killing granny. Life involves risk.

My grandaughter is in her early twenties and has Cystic Fibrosis. Shes had to shield completely, now apparently she's only in the fourth priority group to get vaccinated behind all the very elderly, medical and caring staff and the over seventies. I think it's awful and presumed she would be in the priority one group. Doesn't bear thinking about if she caught it, even when she gets regular 'run of the mill' chest infections they knock her lung capacity for six and literally put her life in danger, doesn't bear thinking about if she gets this. I've been told lm being ageist saying this but how can it make sense to save an octagenarian when my dgds life expectancy with all the recent CF drugs that are available (finally) has now increased by about twenty years from when she was born.

The thing I wonder about is the length of immunity conferred by these vaccines. If it’s only say 6-12 months, isn’t it possible we’ll need to revaccinate the elderly before we even get to the under 50s?