The elephant in the room regarding a vaccine (particularly next year)

[annabel85]

The vaccine is what we've all been clinging too, but it's going to a be a long and limited roll out as there's only so many doses, at least in the short term. And along with health workers the main priority is rightly going to be the elderly over the winter and spring if and when it becomes available.

The elderly have had to pretty much shut themselves away since March - or at least advised to. This vaccine would enable the elderly to be about and about again, socialise and see their families.

However, the elephant in the room, is what does this mean for the working age population? Are we just going to be sitting ducks so things can be back to normal in spring/summer? Maybe this is just what will have to happen, but a lot of the population who won't be eligible for this vaccine for a long time won't just be able to switch off the health anxiety that has been drummed in over Covid. People are terrified of catching it and it's not going anywhere. Many just want to get back to normal, which is perfectly natural, many more aren't going to be any less scared just because Mum or Gran has had a vaccine.

Someone made a tongue in cheek post yesterday about how you'll get posts along the lines of 'MIL has had vaccine and wants to do xyz but we don't feel comfortable'.

I am happy for people on the coal face to be prioritised for the vaccine and, with each person who gets it, the chances of transmission within the general population go down.

Especially since increasing evidence that transmission is correlated with symptom severity and exposure.

Everyone obsessing over long covid is forgetting that loads of other viruses and illnesses cause similar long term conditions. Why should long covid get special treatment? I got sick after glandular fever, and have been ill for 15 years. I don't get any special treatment at work regarding sickness triggers etc.

I think the general idea is that if the most vulnerable (elderly and then medically vulnerable) get the vaccine first then the rest of us don't have to be worried. So we can start getting back to normal because covid will become like any other yucky illness. Those who end up in hospital won't be in the numbers they have been, because they've vaccinated the most vulnerable. You will always get the odd anomaly, like you do with flu and pneumonia etc etc.
I only know one person IRL who is "terrified" and they're strongly asthmatic and have been hospitalised regularly for chest infections etc. Otherwise everyone (including my 60+ parents) find the whole thing a massive inconvenience which needs to be over as soon as possible. I don't think everyone is going to continue hiding indoors - only those who have become terrified right from the start by not being able to view it as a risk:gain ratio.

I've had 2 elderly patients tell me today that they will not be having any vaccinne as they believe Boris is trying to kill them.
They weren't related and didnt know each other but both firmly believe that the Gov are after them as they cost too much with pensions and health needs.
I'm not a Botis fan but even I dont think he is that extreme. (Osborne maybe).....

The Tories have consistently f**ked up everything since January. If you think they'll get this bit right you're gonna be very disappointed

@Orangeblossom7777

Not so altruistic now hey?

There’s a difference though, between waiting your turn for a vaccine (fair enough), and being ineligible for any vaccine and just left to catch it to “provide herd immunity”. I don’t mind waiting but I’m past mid 40’s now and overweight, and quite frankly scared by this idea.

I'm mid 40s too, my DH should get it as over 50 and in the CEV group (hopefully) I know he is higher risk and that is as it should be. I'm a bit concerned but know my risk is statistically low, as a female in particular.

@LindaEllen I think perhaps you missunderstand how a vaccine works. No vaccine will be 100% effective. Some are much lower than 90%. The point is that if there are a huge number of vaccinated people it will limit transmission as many people will be vaccinated.
It might be an idea to read a bit about how these things work otherwise you may spend the rest of your life living like this unnecessarily.

Is there evidence that this vaccine doesn't confer sterilising immunity, or just an absence of evidence that it does? I'm not really sure how you'd test for it in a controlled way, short of deliberately infecting vaccinated volunteers with covid and then getting them to try their hardest to infect unvaccinated volunteers, which obviously isn't going to happen!

@SDTGisAnEvilWolefGenius

I assume that, as more and more people are vaccinated, there will be a community benefit that will help everyone, not just those who have received it.

I would imagine that the community benefits won’t be massive at first, but will grow as mor people are vaccinated.

Exactly this. The more people that have the vax, the less people in the community who are catching and transmitting the virus. Priority has to be given to vulnerable people first, closely followed by key working population. Subsequently pressure is off the NHS to look after those who do catch it and requires medical attention. Those NHS workers being key, so are therefore able to provide care. Makes sense to me

Is there evidence that this vaccine doesn't confer sterilising immunity

No. It's just the current guess based on the immune response of Covid and other Coronaviruses. So far the only data released is on effectiveness and efficacy. We don't know the medium term immunity effect for the reasons you say.

That said, I'd bet my house it won't provide sterilising immunity. It's only aiming for disease modification.

Is nobody worried about possible side effects of this vaccine, especially on people who are already very elderly and/or in poor health ?

I’m all for good news but I am somewhat nervous about this. My mother for example is 72 and having chemotherapy, I cannot imagine she’s going to be comfortable taking a brand new vaccine where any medium and long term side effects are completely unknown.

I think the OP raises a point about the working age population and how it will (or not) change their lives once there is a vaccine. The concern I mentioned the other day in conversation is people let their guard down, and cases and deaths goes up before all are vaccinated.

I can expect some countries will require a vaccination before letting you in, and so the demand (not necessarily met) will cause anxiety, far worse than those who forget to renew passports in good time (as an example). People seem to regard going away almost as a human right.

All those who are catastrophising need to be mindful that on a worst case scenario about 15% have had Covid the figures indicate it's less than 6%. 66m x 15% is 9.9m; 66m x 5% is 3.3m. The death rate is therefore somewhere between 0.0050 and 0.015% overall. It has never been the plague. I am over 60, a little overweight and have an auto-immune disease and my change of dying is less than 10% of 1%.

The elephant in the room is that this is not the plague.

It is deeply saddening that a population where education is mandatory now until 18 has swallowed the propaganda hook, line and sinker and has been unable to realistically assess their own risk.

We have been held to ransom for the highly unionised NHS which despite us locking down for them, has not locked out for us.

To be fair, the propoganda (looking at you BBC in particular) has been terrible..

Everyone obsessing over long covid is forgetting that loads of other viruses and illnesses cause similar long term conditions.

How frequently, though? That’s something I would like to know, but haven’t found any data on. It’s difficult to get figures on long Covid too, but I recently saw an estimate that there are already 60,000 people with it - more than the number who have died.

Why should long covid get special treatment?

The only justification for that would be if it affected vastly more people than other viruses. Although the better solution would be to offer support to people with any kind of post-viral syndrome.

It should mean that 2022 is ok. But we've got a long way to go with masks and reducing close indoors contact until then.

@OhTheRoses

All those who are catastrophising need to be mindful that on a worst case scenario about 15% have had Covid the figures indicate it's less than 6%. 66m x 15% is 9.9m; 66m x 5% is 3.3m. The death rate is therefore somewhere between 0.0050 and 0.015% overall

Please do check my maths, but I think you forgot to multiply by 100 to get a percentage figure.

50,000/9,900,000 = 0.0050, or 0.5%

50,000/3,300,000 = 0.01515 of 1.5%

The last time John Campbell looked at infection fatality rates - which differ depending on demographics and other local factors - the average figure was around 0.23%

@PuzzledObserver

Crikey I lost a message there. You are right. Still not a lot is it though compared to the vicarious impact on other health related issues and the annihilation of the economy.

@OhTheRoses

Still not a lot is it though compared to the vicarious impact on other health related issues and the annihilation of the economy.

That's a false dichotomy, though, because without the various measures taken to control the virus, other health related issues would still have gone undiagnosed/untreated because there are only so many beds and staff to go around.... and the economy would still have been hammered with so many people off sick and unable to work for varying periods of time.

The economy will recover. It will probably take several years, but it will recover. Dead people don't generally recover. Whether they died from Covid, or from cancer which went undiagnosed too long because the hospital was overrun with Covid patients.

@megletthesecond

It should mean that 2022 is ok. But we've got a long way to go with masks and reducing close indoors contact until then.

I'd expect pretty much back to normal by summer 2022 at the latest, but people need to be realistic about next summer regarding some restrictions ongoing and social distancing.

@nosswith

I think the OP raises a point about the working age population and how it will (or not) change their lives once there is a vaccine. The concern I mentioned the other day in conversation is people let their guard down, and cases and deaths goes up before all are vaccinated.

I can expect some countries will require a vaccination before letting you in, and so the demand (not necessarily met) will cause anxiety, far worse than those who forget to renew passports in good time (as an example). People seem to regard going away almost as a human right.

Millions still had to go abroad on foreign holidays even in the middle of a pandemic, when there was all kind of restrictions anyway. That has been a big driver of the second wave in Europe which gathered pace in France, Spain and Italy (the main holiday destinations).

Far more people than last year will want to go away next summer, as most who'd normally go abroad this year didn't.

People seem to regard going away almost as a human right

Lots of people have family living abroad. DS is nearly 2 and the in laws haven’t seen him since just before he was 1. It’s hard when there’s no prospect of seeing your family.

I may be way off with my reckoning but it feels (yes feels) to me that currently I am at an extremely low Risk because I am being even more careful than current regulations demand.
Once I am vaccinated - I’m in one of the lower categories but On current thinking I will be vaccinated - it feels as though if I Then go out and about as normal I will be exposing myself to a 10% chance (albeit in a lower incidence reality) - way higher than now.

My first thought was well I’ll just carry on as now surely rather than actually increase my risk by false sense of security.

I may need to rethink my understanding of the maths, proportions and of chance/risk maths !

I have indeed misunderstood some basic maybe - the lower incidence (r rate) reality is pretty significant I think. Hmmm