Mink mutation

[Lilybet1980]

Anyone know how worried we should be about the mink outbreaks in Denmark?

@Aridane I'd guess the declawing is so that they don't damage each other's pelts in the close confines of the cages.

[quote Aridane]Seems maybe that with Spain and Netherlands covid was transmitted from human to mink but not back again - but who knows

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/17/spain-to-cull-nearly-100000-mink-in-coronavirus-outbreak[/quote]
That's sobering to read. The cruelty shown to living animals is gut wrenching. The mink are gassed but as they are semi aquatic they have the ability to hold their breath so gassing doesn't often work the first time. urghh and all for humans to drape themselves in their fur.

The headlines all look a bit end of the worldish. Like the scientific and medical community have such a difficult task ahead with and ever changing situation. I know a lot of people will say oh it should be fine cos of x y a we don’t need to panic yet. But at the same time it is scary. And so many people in February said that about Covid. And I just don’t have a great deal of trust in the authorities to make the right decisions at all.

Regarding the mink farms earlier in the year, it was my father who lives in Spain who told me about it. I found it in the news then, but it did not make it to the front page here in UK. There was proof that the minks had transfered the virus back to humans then.
At the beginning of the year, there was a case in a zoo, I think US, where a keeper had infected a tiger.
It was only a report here, someone saying about cats overthere and so on. Now it has translated in the minks cull and Denmark working to fully suppress this new strain ( by the way, as far as I had previously read covid 19 is actually quite deadly to the poor minks)
It is not giving me full anxiety, but yes I find it scary and worrisome.
And I would expect WHO and other authorities to monitor this and keep testing other species too.
Back in March or so, there was concern about the great apes, whether this virus would reach them and if it may be deadly to them

[quote MaxNormal]@Aridane I'd guess the declawing is so that they don't damage each other's pelts in the close confines of the cages.[/quote]
That’s what I thought (like de beaking hens) - however, the pictures of the living minks shows them still with claws

I remember reading an article last year about a virus which was causing concern in China, and at the time not thinking anything of it. Turns out that was a mistake.. and I fear this news is going to develop the in same way.

While this isn't the best news obviously, I have faith that virologists and vaccine developers will be well aware of this as a possible complication. It won't be the first time this has happened in previous viruses.

In fact rereading the article from New Scientist I linked earlier says as much in the last part.

There have been many worrying pieces of news since March about surprise issues with Covid; blood clots and re infection being two off the top of my head. We (if we're ordinary members of the public) just have to sit tight and see what transpires.

covid mink are in six countries now, apparently. Americas, Netherlands, Denmark,.... can't remember the whole list.

DH has a colleague in Denmark. He says that there is a concern that the mink covid could spread to rats. I don’t wish to be alarmist, and I can’t bring myself to look at and if the videos/photos of the mink farms, but I would have thought that any intensive farming would attract rats.

I am hoping one of the knowledgeable folk on here will be able to tall me that such a transmission is impossible.

And as for buying the furs, DH and I went on holiday to Turkey a few years ago. Our fellow guests were overwhelmingly Russian. In the basement of the hotel was a very expensive selection of shops including a shop specialising in furs. In addition to being horrified, it struck me as bizarre as the temperatures there were sky high. Clearly, there was a demand from the Russian clientele.

Any of the photos/videos!

@Maze76

I remember reading an article last year about a virus which was causing concern in China, and at the time not thinking anything of it. Turns out that was a mistake.. and I fear this news is going to develop the in same way.

China only reported it to the WHO on the 31st of December. Articles will have been in January this year. It was included and discussed in some of my teaching, and by colleagues, towards the end of January.

But it feels like a long time to me too.

I was also worried about covid before it seemed like others were, but that in itself doesn't mean that this specific story is anything to be overly concerned about based on the data we currently have available.

The Danish are taking it seriously. Good. Again, that doesn't in itself mean there is reason to panic.

I agree. As the general public we don't need to worry.

Health authorities are clearly monitoring the issue and taking action.

The issue with rats won't be so much that rats are easily infected, but that they will become infected with a mutated version. Like it happened with minks.
The virus is in circulation in the human population and its genetic diversity is low. Meaning that it hasn't changed much during the past almost one year. It's working well, so there is no selection for variants. This means we can study it and will end up knowing how to treat it and what vaccines to make.

As you can read in the article below, it doesn't infect other animals (not easily) in its current form. But viruses mutate, and with large numbers of animals in contact with humans, a genetic variant will emerge that can infect those animals and will cross the species barrier. Plus, viruses can mix with each other, thus creating even more variants than mutation alone.
Selection will lead to more efficient variants being established in that population. This is what happened when it crossed originally to the human population, and now to minks, and it can happen to other animals, such as rats, yes (see article).
The main issue are numbers and proximity.
It tends to happen in China, and other locations, with a high density of human and animal populations in close contact. Like the mink farms here. As for the rats, it will depend on the farms. Intensive farming tends to be safer. There may be an issue with farms where mink or other animals are reared in less clean conditions. Ground reared will be more dangerous in that aspect than cage rearing. We see this for a range of diseases that I study. But it could still happen in any farm.

The thing is that crossing to those animals selects for variants, those variants can reassort with each other and our own current virus. If we have a stream of new strains emerging regularly, we can end up with a situation similar to the flu where vaccines have to be guessed every year and efficacy can end up being as low as 40%, and even those who got ill at one time won't be protected for another version.
Worst case, we could end up with more severe variants and even more diverse clinical nd transmission pictures.

It seems to me that a key lesson from this is that strict barriers should be used between workers and farm animals in general. Something that was already an issue with bird flu, for example, but it is clear now that it should be taken seriously for all intensively farmed animals.

A link to the Nature paper that reviews animal models.
www.nature.com/articles/s41385-020-00340-z

If the UK government is sufficiently concerned that it is now banning non-UK hauliers from entering the country if they’ve been through Denmark and asking UK hauliers to isolate for 14 days with their families, I’m wondering if it is serious enough that they should be behaving more like Asian countries and Australia on this and requiring people coming from Denmark to isolate in accommodation provided free by the State where it can be ensured that they are isolating and where they can be tested for covid mink mutations?!

I think they should close their borders for at least 14 days and isolate people returning from Denmark indeed.

[quote Lweji]I agree. As the general public we don't need to worry.

Health authorities are clearly monitoring the issue and taking action.

The issue with rats won't be so much that rats are easily infected, but that they will become infected with a mutated version. Like it happened with minks.
The virus is in circulation in the human population and its genetic diversity is low. Meaning that it hasn't changed much during the past almost one year. It's working well, so there is no selection for variants. This means we can study it and will end up knowing how to treat it and what vaccines to make.

As you can read in the article below, it doesn't infect other animals (not easily) in its current form. But viruses mutate, and with large numbers of animals in contact with humans, a genetic variant will emerge that can infect those animals and will cross the species barrier. Plus, viruses can mix with each other, thus creating even more variants than mutation alone.
Selection will lead to more efficient variants being established in that population. This is what happened when it crossed originally to the human population, and now to minks, and it can happen to other animals, such as rats, yes (see article).
The main issue are numbers and proximity.
It tends to happen in China, and other locations, with a high density of human and animal populations in close contact. Like the mink farms here. As for the rats, it will depend on the farms. Intensive farming tends to be safer. There may be an issue with farms where mink or other animals are reared in less clean conditions. Ground reared will be more dangerous in that aspect than cage rearing. We see this for a range of diseases that I study. But it could still happen in any farm.

The thing is that crossing to those animals selects for variants, those variants can reassort with each other and our own current virus. If we have a stream of new strains emerging regularly, we can end up with a situation similar to the flu where vaccines have to be guessed every year and efficacy can end up being as low as 40%, and even those who got ill at one time won't be protected for another version.
Worst case, we could end up with more severe variants and even more diverse clinical nd transmission pictures.

It seems to me that a key lesson from this is that strict barriers should be used between workers and farm animals in general. Something that was already an issue with bird flu, for example, but it is clear now that it should be taken seriously for all intensively farmed animals.

A link to the Nature paper that reviews animal models.
www.nature.com/articles/s41385-020-00340-z[/quote]
I felt quite reassured at the start of your post, but not so much by the end

Measures are being taken.

I mean, we can't relax entirely, but we would need to worry if nothing was being done.

@Lweji

Measures are being taken.

I mean, we can't relax entirely, but we would need to worry if nothing was being done.

But doesn't it seem inevitable that the below will happen at some point and spiral out of control? I was trying not to panic about this latest development, but the more I think about its potential to spread to different species of animals, the more concerned I get. If this does happen, is science now advanced enough that a vaccine could soon be created that could cover more variants than the flu vaccine is currently able to do?

The thing is that crossing to those animals selects for variants, those variants can reassort with each other and our own current virus. If we have a stream of new strains emerging regularly, we can end up with a situation similar to the flu where vaccines have to be guessed every year and efficacy can end up being as low as 40%, and even those who got ill at one time won't be protected for another version

It was almost certainly always going to be the case that the covid 19 vaccine would end up being like the flu vaccine and would need tweaking to account for different strains. This is not new or even necessarily worrying information.

I can’t help thinking that unless we go down New Zealand route of actually quarantining all arrivals that anything we do is largely futile. If it has been detected elsewhere then letting anyone in from any country poses a risk now. I would think the horse has bolted already. I mean it’s good the government are quarantining arrivals as hopefully it will slow spread. But unless all other countries take a similar approach we are not going to be able to stop the spread forever.

@Chickenandrice

I can’t help thinking that unless we go down New Zealand route of actually quarantining all arrivals that anything we do is largely futile. If it has been detected elsewhere then letting anyone in from any country poses a risk now. I would think the horse has bolted already. I mean it’s good the government are quarantining arrivals as hopefully it will slow spread. But unless all other countries take a similar approach we are not going to be able to stop the spread forever.

I tend to agree. Our quarantine is a half hearted attempt anyway. New Zealand requires all people entering to pay upfront to reside in government arranged accommodation during quarantine. It only takes a handful of infected overseas visitors to quickly cause widespread transmission. People here are legally getting straight on to public transport, going shopping to get supplies etc. If they have the new strain who knows what additional mess we'll be in. I was feeling hopeful of a way out next year but it seems like it's just starting all over again.

Me too mrshoho and I know that it’s not the right thing to say and I don’t really discuss with people irl as nobody likes doom and gloom. But it’s really not looking too great. I am just (half seriously) thinking that maybe I should look in to emigrating to New Zealand to see if that’s possible. I so with I loved there right now

*wish I lived there

I agree that quarantine has to be done properly or not bother that much.

The rate of mutation and reassortment for this virus doesn't seem, or hasn't been, even close to the flu virus, so that's good news.

But, it is important that diversity is kept down.