Mink mutation

[Lilybet1980]

Anyone know how worried we should be about the mink outbreaks in Denmark?

They did release the sequences yesterday, many hundreds of them ( the sheer volume of work tells you how seriously they are taking this).

Cluster 5 is in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein, which is why it could potentially reduce efficacy of vaccines designed against this.

They tested the antibody-containing serum from recovered covid19 patients on cells infected with cluster 5 and found it to be less responsive than cells infected with other covid19 variants.

Companion animals are less of an issue because they are not densely packed together. The mink virus spread among thousands of mink, mutating as it went.

If I give CV to my dog, he'll not be able to give it to any others.

And Denmark has poor animal practices in comparison with UK. I never buy Danish bacon, for example, as the intensive pig farming is nightmarish.

Both Spain and the Netherlands culled 100,000s mink in July for the same reason. So it’s not particular problem to Denmark. I wonder if Spain and the Netherlands were perceived to have got the issue under control at that point. Or perhaps the mutation is already out there

Generally they mutate to become less lethal. Effective viruses do not kill their hosts.

Hmm. I hope you mean it as shorthand for starts.

Mutations are random. Or nearly random. They can affect any part of the viral genome, and can change the coded protein or not.

There's a fine balance between transmission and lethality for pathogens in general. Viruses don't make long term plans. If they are easily transmitted, very deadly viruses will be selected for regardless. Eventually they will wipe out all the susceptible population. It's an arms race. The resistant population will then grow and the virus will seem less lethal, but it was in fact the population that became resistant.
The signature of the plague is still seen in Europe.
Or transmission will stop, ending that viral strain.

Don't assume that pathogens tend to become less virulent or deadly. Transmission is the drive for selection.

The origin of vaccines was based on an observation that milk aids who contracted cowpox ( a mild human illness) were conferred with immunity to the much more deadly smallpox. Inter species infections have been around since viruses first appeared.
I don’t think we should be getting our knickers in a twist just yet based on the wildly speculative media interpretation of scientific comment.
Virus that kill their host rapidly are not very successful. We rarely see the historic plague anymore because it has mutated to a much milder disease causing form. It’s still around but happily co exists with us, as do hepatitis, colds, and herpes to name a few. Covid is following the same pattern, it causes a mild infection in the immunologically fit ( and perhaps the genetically less susceptible) but kills off the elderly and the genetically susceptible.
Unfortunately we have evolved as a species to an intellectual level where we can now effectively control natural selection to a limited extent. We have messed with the natural order with modern medicine and now suffering the consequences.
I’m becoming more and more inclined to agree with the “big reset”ideas. As with previous global pandemics if you survive/have mild illness it has probably more to do with your genes that with modern medicine.
It’s really very sad that so many elderly have succumbed but as a healthcare worker it frequently amazes me how some of my patients are still with us due to the myriad of serious underlying health issues, but we have this wonderful NHS that has massively increased the lifespan of a large majority of people. Maybe this is the true cost of such an incredible, free at point of access, health service provider.

Virus that kill their host rapidly are not very successful. We rarely see the historic plague anymore because it has mutated to a much milder disease causing form.

Why do these myths still persist?

Look up plague.
And see my previous post.

Lweji good post re the population becoming resistant. I used mutation because most non virologists would find it easier to visualise a virus becoming weaker rather than the uncomfortable idea that for for the population to become resistant you need to accept a large number of deaths in the genetically susceptible. MN leans towards save every soul rather than letting natural selection do its thing.
I suspect Covid 19 will follow the path of most corona viruses and become endemic. Vaccine, if effective may only be required by immunologically vulnerable. The emerging data does suggest that there is some genetic vulnerability, perhaps related to the immune systems over reaction to the viral damage ( cytokinins storm). It will be interesting to see how research into this progresses. The growing evidence of a link to diabetes, heart disease and other inflammatory based chronic diseases may open new doors to the treatment of these diseases in the future so maybe Covid is not all bad. Fast tracking a method of identifying the genes involved means early identification and preventative treatment of the underlying comorbidities.

I don’t think we should be getting our knickers in a twist just yet based on the wildly speculative media interpretation of scientific comment

The PM of Denmark is taking it very seriously (owes it to the world etc) and I am grateful to her for that

Both Spain and the Netherlands culled 100,00 minks in July apparently and yet this is the first we've heard about it on a national level.

for the population to become resistant you need to accept a large number of deaths in the genetically susceptible. MN leans towards save every soul rather than letting natural selection do its thing.

I'm not advocating letting selection do its thing at all.

I'm saying that we need to understand that viruses are not benevolently or even selfishly seeking to become milder to prevent their own demise.
It doesn't happen that way at all.

This virus is transmissible way before it causes symptoms, so if it kills its host it will already have been transmitted. There is no selection against lethality at the moment.
People need to understand this.

I’m more concerned about the fact that in this day and age there are still mink farms!!! Why???

Lweji

Angrymum22

for the population to become resistant you need to accept a large number of deaths in the genetically susceptible

Or, alternatively..... vaccinate the population.

I’m sorry but it seems you are trying to use Lweji’s explanation of a biological process to justify herd immunity.

But there is no evidence that the mink strains is more contagious or more lethal, merely that itmaybe more resistant to antibodies. But they don't have enough data to comment yet. Hence the caution. The caution in itself is not a reason to panic.

Of course viruses can and do mutate to become more deadly. It's less common for them to do that, and there is no evidence that coronaviruses do that, but it does happen.

It's not only the vaccine. And the vaccines may not even have the variant region in them. I don't know enough about the vaccines that in the making. But if experts are worried, then I'm worried.

But if sera with antibodies from recovered patients doesn't react as much to this strain, it's possible that those who got immune to the main strains won't be to the new one. That is a worry too.

Having said all that, the most important immunity may be the cellular type, which does not involve antibodies. I'd like to see some data regarding that.

In any case, I'm happy that they are being cautious. Less happy that there are already people infected.

Worst case, they'll add this variant to the vaccine. Not great but that's what they do with the flu every year.

It's really concerning where this could lead to. The thought of this new type virus already spreading outside of Denmark is grim. Do you know if say someone in the UK was infected with the new strain and developed symptoms and was tested, would the test identify the new strain?

@mrshoho

It's really concerning where this could lead to. The thought of this new type virus already spreading outside of Denmark is grim. Do you know if say someone in the UK was infected with the new strain and developed symptoms and was tested, would the test identify the new strain?

It may depend on the test. There will be several and not just one.

But the primers (the sequences that detect the virus) will have been designed in conserved regions, although sufficiently different from other coronaviruses.

The trouble with putting Denmark on the quarantine list, is that a person in Denmark wanting to enter the UK today, only needs to get a train for a few hours to a neighbouring country and fly from there.

Thank you Lweji.

@Lweji - how yo you know so much?

Erm...
Biology degree.
PhD in a Biomedical Science.
Academic with a special interest in molecular epidemiology, phylogenetics and evolution of pathogen-host relationships for the bugs that I study.
Development of several PCR methods for different species.
Read lots of scientific papers, attended several seminars.
Written a few, presented a few.

Not a virologist, and not involved in covid research, but I have been paying a lot of attention to it.

awesome - you rock!!

Thanks.

@Lweji so we either catch whatever the mutation or die. That makes sense.

sorry should have said catch and survive.