Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Lets have a go for % testing positive for COVID-19

..................................................age 2 year 6 ....................year 7-11
3 May to 16 May 2020 ....................... 0.34% ................0.19%
17 May to 30 May 2020 ........................0.13% .............0.08%
31 May to 13 June 2020 .......................0.00% ............. 0.00%
14 June to 27 June 2020 ........................0.05% ............. 0.12%
28 June to 11 July 2020 ..........................0.00% ..............0.00%
12 July to 25 July 2020 ...........................0.11% ...............0.00%
26 July to 8 August 2020 ........................ 0.06% ..............0.03%
9 August to 22 August 2020 .....................0.04% ............0.13%
23 August to 5 September 2020 ...............0.13% ............. 0.02%
6 September to 19 September 2020..........0.26%.............. 0.25%
20 September to 3 October 2020 ...............0.29% ..............0.61%
4 October to 17 October 2020 .....................0.61%.............1.36%
18 October to 31 October 2020 ..................1.14% ..............1.98%

I won't do the other year groups (they are in the link) but only the 18-25s are higher than the age 2 - year 6 children. Whereas you'd expect it to be the other way around if transmission was mainly coming from community spread to primaries.

It's interesting that the rate of infection for year 11- 16 was lower than community and lower than age 2 - year 6, all the way up until September when it shoots up.

[I am imagining teens skulking in their bedrooms, and lads not wanting to be hugged by their mums etc. And then they all get crammed into tiny classrooms in September and the infection rate goes way up.]

Casting an eye over the figures across all ages, the summer holiday effect doesn't leap out at me, what do you think?

Surveillance report out later of course! that could be interesting too.

This lockdown will be interesting in outcome. It will really show how much difference pubs and smaller shops/ beauty industry etc make , given how almost everything else seems to be running as normal if the roads and various MN threads are anything to go on.

I'd love the old Jenny Harries' slide showing traffic movements.

I think that it will be really hard to tease out what is happening actually, because of all the different conflicting factors - half term, various excuses for parties, back to school, tiers, lockdown.

Yes, it certainly isn't a controlled experiment.

@herecomesthsun Those positivity rates are quite alarming for primary age students actually, given that 52% of children who test positive in the huge Zoe Covid Symptom Study don't have the three adults symptoms required for testing.

I wonder what that means for the real numbers in that age group.

Here's the link to the Zoe study figures: covid.joinzoe.com/post/back-to-school

@herecomesthsun - interesting, that's from the ONS testing? So the primary increases from 4th August, but very slowly. Secondary is up and down unless you ignore week of 23rd, if that was altered then it would also be increasing at a similar rate from 4th August. Did lots of people avoid testing their child the week before return to school / go on late holidays so they didn't test? If I had time, I'd want to look back at the dataset for that week to see how many tests for that age group. Maybe tomorrow!

Yes, it is ONS, so extrapolating from a sample (but a large sample) and should be a fairly accurate picture of how infections are increasing. It might be that the sort of people who participate in this are self-selecting in some ways though! (? believe in following the science / ? more careful)

I apologise that the previous links don't work, something to do with how my Chromebook processed the spreadsheets, but it's all there in the ONS data.

ONS data set is here www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata

If you click on the green link , you get a spreadsheet with links to different data subsets vertically on the left.

Latest hospital activity days is out

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

No age grouping for the actual results (11th Sept dataset) just that it was based on finding 71 cases from 68 households. God I miss the days of projections saying there might be 2000 new daily infections. Bring back August!!!

I was thinking that earlier MRex when reading another thread. How have we managed to get to a point where no one one bats an eyelid at 20-30,000 infections daily and nearly 600 deaths...?Sigh.

I think the schools going back in July can be misleading. As an example my GS is now in year 11 so as a year 10 he was back in school for 4 weeks, right? Well what actually happened was he went in for half a day each week and met with subject teachers and form tutor.

I might be wrong but I think the way things were presented was that year 10s and 12s were back in school, well they were but certainly in some schools it was far from full time.

One of my other GSs was in year 1 so he also went back to school, his year was split in 3 so he went in 2 days week 1, 2 days week 2 and 3 days week 3, I think he did 1 day in week 4. So there were only ever one third of 3 years in school rather than 7 years in fulltime so obviously social distancing was very different.

I just thought it might help clarify things when looking at infection rates in schools in July.

@Piggywaspushed
I agree. Remember when we were all horrified at the 22k when they found them down the back of the sofa?
We've now been regularly around that for some days and no one is batting an eyelid.

@ancientgran
You're right. Round here the year 10s who went back it was along the lines of half a day a week, or a one to one welfare meeting. None I know of went back either full time or into full classes.
Even at the primary classes who went back, they were in bubbles of 10 maximum, and kep totally separately. It's not comparible to now.

- SEN has additional risks with more adults in the room, older children and no effective distancing; arguably these children are most in need of open schools and also most at risk of covid; I think at one point we saw it had 3 x the primary school cases

My maths might be wrong but there being fewer Sen schools than any other affect the significance of this? Cases being transmission?

So proportionally a very high number affected. Sen schools have on average older staff. No masks for staff or pupils (certainly primary.) absolutely agree should be open, however there are definitely ways to run effective part time learning especially as there will be more pupils with CEV or CV.

Google/ wiki says BESA, the British Educational Suppliers Association has more up to date figures. It states that in 2019 there are 24,323 schools in England, which includes 391 nurseries, 16,769 primary schools, 3,448 secondary schools, 2,319 independent schools, 1,044 special schools and 352 pupil referral units.

On the schools thing, this data is interesting:

@Witchend You're right. Round here the year 10s who went back it was along the lines of half a day a week, or a one to one welfare meeting. None I know of went back either full time or into full classes.
Even at the primary classes who went back, they were in bubbles of 10 maximum, and kep totally separately. It's not comparible to now.

Not just here then. I just thought it was worth mentioning as if people haven't got children in those age brackets (or grandchildren) it would be easy to assume those years went back normally and I think people do assume that because they refer to numbers not rising in July when children went back. I think the reason the numbers didn't rise was because it was very safe compared to the fully schools now.

@NeurotrashWarrior

On the schools thing, this data is interesting:

Absolutely fascinating, @NeurotrashWarrior ;-)))))

Why are the results always late on press conference days? And it's always due to issues with England's deaths data, too 🙄

was just on Sky, death numbers are delayed but more than 33,000 cases today!!!!!

Wow! 33k 😞 My twin had double the previous highest number. Will be interesting to see where the increases are.

Did some numbers fall off the bottom of the spreadsheet again?
I know it's being cynical, but I had no trust in the plateau for case numbers recently, in the light of previous cock ups.

Town not twin 🙄

Big jump in testing though - the Liverpool effect?

30,843 on dashboard