Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

But I agree with you re distancing. People really won't go on doing it for many more months. You might be able to go on asking people to isolate if they've been in contact with a case, and maybe a ban on big events but I don't think you can tell people not to see friends and family indoors for a year and more. And gets even harder once some are vaccinated - my mum's been in the phone today saying she'll come and see me once she's had her vaccine :) Very hard to have one set of rules for the vaccinated and another for the rest of us. Impossible to do through laws and policing.

@Firefliess

Sorry, that's what I meant on the school fines! Allow parents to home educate but hold the school place for this academic year without fines or sanctions.

Newcastle cases have started to creep up again. Roughly an extra 80 per day since the 2nd Nov.

Anecdotally I feel I suddenly know of many more local people, parents, staff at school and other schools who have actually contracted it.

North Tyneside and other surrounding areas have been shooting up too.

It will be interesting to see if the lockdown has any impact going forward.

More like between 50-80, still a noticeable amount.

(Sorry from 2nd to the 6th Nov)

@TheSunIsStillShining - I don't understand your figures. This is the 60+ UK population, as posted upthread; care home staff is estimated by ONS at 441,498 for 293,391 residents (link also above).

60-64: 3,755,185
65-69: 3,368,199
70-74: 3,318,867
75-79: 2,325,296
80-84: 1,715,328
85-89: 1,042,090
90 and over: 605,181

Sorry, you did 50s too:
50-54: 4,661,015
55-59: 4,405,908
NHS staff is 1.4m
So over 27m are over 50, NHS or care home workers.

Plus everyone else clinically vulnerable but younger. (Probably not pregnant, definitely no children yet.)

I used this site:
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/ukpopulationpyramidinteractive/2020-01-08

I'm an idiot. Sorry to everyone. Going up and down the tree actually shows the number of people in that one specific age year. Don't know how I could have missed that. I'll ask MN to remove my prev post to not pollute the thread.

Ah, now it makes sense. I was ever so confused by your figures. No need to remove it though!

By the way, care home staff look high because:
24*7 care; so 168 hrs per week to cover is 4-5 FTE staff per required round the clock care worker (fewer on shift at night, but still cover is needed), but also there are lots of part-time staff. It's common for staff to work in multiple places; hospital and several care homes, but the level of over-counting for a vaccine will be hard to work out.

@MRex

Ah, now it makes sense. I was ever so confused by your figures. No need to remove it though!

By the way, care home staff look high because:
24*7 care; so 168 hrs per week to cover is 4-5 FTE staff per required round the clock care worker (fewer on shift at night, but still cover is needed), but also there are lots of part-time staff. It's common for staff to work in multiple places; hospital and several care homes, but the level of over-counting for a vaccine will be hard to work out.

not an issue: create the list in excel with name and DOB and then write a function to spot the identicals... Should be done in a few month by Deloitte :)

There’s a really good interview with Chris Whitty in this week’s BMJ, I read the paper copy over breakfast (I suspect the online version is behind a paywall) but if you want a photo of the paper one send me a message and I’ll send it. Don’t want to post it publicly in case that breaches the rules

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

There’s a really good interview with Chris Whitty in this week’s BMJ, I read the paper copy over breakfast (I suspect the online version is behind a paywall) but if you want a photo of the paper one send me a message and I’ll send it. Don’t want to post it publicly in case that breaches the rules

That sounds really interesting, I’d be really interested to see it. I don’t think you can attach pictures to pm though.

www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4235

Can you see it from this link? I’m not sure if they’ve released it from the paywall or I’m logged in so can see it...

From Liverpool Council...

#LetsGetTested | The numbers are in!

Since #MassTesting began on Friday 6th November...

🔘 23,170 have been tested
🔘 154 people have tested positive for Covid-19
🔘 0.7% positivity rate

Even if you don't have symptoms, please get your test:
gov.uk/testliverpool

Hiw interesring. Can't remember, what positivity rate does one "expect" from mass testing - or what rate is worrying? Obviously it's early days for Liverpool though.

Slovakia had a little over 1% test positive from their mass testing:
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/06/slovakia-hopes-to-halve-coronavirus-cases-with-mass-testing.
0.7% seems a little low from the previous Liverpool positivity, but the Liverpool rates were dropping whereas Slovakia's were increasing, so it's writing the realms of plausible.
Hopefully the approach works in finding a majority of the superspreader cases so Liverpool's case rates drop massively. It's great that so many have turned out for testing.

But the previous positivity rates were obviously for those with symptoms as that was the criteria for getting a test.

Do they gather data on demographics/work/symptoms?
It would be interesting to see what proportion of the 0.7% are symptomatic vs asymptomatic.

Wouldn't it!

I think all of those are asymptomatic, if you’re symptomatic then you use the other system (there have split the testing sites)

They're supposed to be all asymptomatic to be part of the mass testing in Liverpool. That's the criteria for taking part (though I guess some may have sore throats, gastro symptoms, etc - ie not the 3 core Covid symptoms)

If the people taking part in the mass testing are typical of the whole population in Liverpool then that would suggest 3,500 people currently have Covid in Liverpool (0.7% of the 500,000 population). Around 1,400 have tested positive with symptoms in Liverpool in the last week, which suggests the majority (circa 70%) of people with Covid don't have any symptoms (or at least not the 3 key symptoms needed to get a test).

It may be, though, that the people queuing up for mass testing are those who're more likely to have it. There wouldn't seem much point in being tested if you, say, live alone and work from home. So the number of asymptomatic people across the entire city could be lower than 3500.

They've some way to go to test the whole city though if they've only managed less than 5% so far!

@AnyFucker

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For fucks sake, just use the bookmark option. It’s not bloody hard. Everyone else manages it. I’m sick of seeing your random . posts

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