Do we need a reality check about covid?

[TheSilence]

I’m so quiet about this in real life, and bite my tongue but I’m so sick of hearing certain things and it’s making me despair of the human race.

I am no scientist, nor do I especially understand research/data or statistics.

But in a nutshell, I am sick of people minimising this virus. I’ve seen and heard it for 7 months now and am most frustrated by these kinds of comments:

“It’s just flu but they’ve renamed it”
“Flu has a higher death rate”
“For 99% of people it’s just like having the common cold”
“All nurses ever do is film tik Tok videos”
“Long covid doesn’t exist”
“Masks cause severe neurological damage”!

This is just a few because I don’t want to rant too much, I haven’t even covered the vast amount of conspiracy theories I’ve read.

From my understanding, all of those statements I’ve said are wrong, but I’m aware that my understanding is wrong.
I know some people might be reading this thinking I’ve got it back to front and that people are over estimating this virus, but that hasn’t been my experience at all.

Bottom line is, the single most important thing about covid that makes it a severe threat is that it’s brand new. The people who understand these things barely understand this. When going into a battle or war, knowing and understanding your enemy gives you a huge advantage. It’s the same with this, and tbh I can’t get my head around the statements people make with such certainty, such as “I KNOW for a fact if I or my family get it we’ll definitely be fine” or “Long covid is DEFINITELY the same as any post viral syndrome”. How can these people be so ridiculously sure when scientists aren’t?

I hate the arrogance and huge egos of people in this country and other western countries.

And yes I’m struggling with severe mental health issues that I can’t get proper help for because of covid. As I know I sound very ranty and possibly angry.

I’m just saying - please take this seriously.

Humanity has faced new viruses throughout history. They did not go away by the population locking itself down for months/years...

Yes and neither will coronavirus.

We need to learn to live with it. And yes, some people will sadly die from it. But we need to make decisions based on society overall. We need to consider the effects of lockdown on lost jobs, lost income, increasing debt, other health issues getting neglected etc,,,!

@sunflowers246

Humanity has faced new viruses throughout history. They did not go away by the population locking itself down for months/years...

Yes and neither will coronavirus.

We need to learn to live with it. And yes, some people will sadly die from it. But we need to make decisions based on society overall. We need to consider the effects of lockdown on lost jobs, lost income, increasing debt, other health issues getting neglected etc,,,!

I get that completely and am not in favour of them, but will there be an impact on society if the virus is going out of control? How will the health system cope and schools etc? Will people get treatment for non covid issues? Will people be out spending the same? I’m just saying that by living with it, that might cause huge problems as well.

@sunflowers246

Humanity has faced new viruses throughout history. They did not go away by the population locking itself down for months/years...

Yes and neither will coronavirus.

We need to learn to live with it. And yes, some people will sadly die from it. But we need to make decisions based on society overall. We need to consider the effects of lockdown on lost jobs, lost income, increasing debt, other health issues getting neglected etc,,,!

We haven't had the capacity to lockdown before. We've not understood how virus work enough to make a decision like that. Nor have we had the social infrustrature to do so.

Interesting the countries with the best social security and state health systems are also the ones tending to do better than the ones which have greater inequality, less social security safety net and more investment in public health. It doesn't take a genuis to work out why.

Even they face challenges with this but if you have 25+ ICU beds per head of population compared to around 7 ICU beds per head of population the point at which you have to lock down in a worst case scenario is higher. It means the packages of restrictions imposed can look vastly different.

This isn't even about deaths from covid now in reality, because survival rates have improved and the death rate is still % wise fairly small for the population as a whole provided they get health care - and this will become even more true over time as a vaccine roles out.

Where the problem kicks in, is where rates start to raise because of lack of care and when this prevents other healthcare services from operating. The bed problem.

I'd argue that the UK doesn't have a covid problem at this point. Its primary issue is actually a hospital bed problem. And if you see things in that light, the whole thing looks rather different.

YANBU. I'm so sick of people ranting about how they are "over it". People are still dying.

I work in care and although the place I work at has been incredibly lucky I know carers who have not been so lucky. They've been terrified to go to work in case they fall ill and die. Many carers have died. One former colleague of mine contracted the virus and passed it to her husband who spent 6 weeks in intensive care. At one point she was advised to prepare for the worst. The poor woman felt like she'd murdered her husband for nmw. When I read about people being over covid or refusing to wear a mask because it's a government conspiracy it feels like a giant slap in the face to my colleagues and I who have literally risked our lives and our families lives to keep other peoples loved ones safe and cared for.

We haven't had the capacity to lockdown before. We've not understood how virus work enough to make a decision like that. Nor have we had the social infrustrature to do so

That’s not entirely true. It’s pretty instinctual to separate the sick or remove yourself from an area of sickness.

There’s plenty of evidence from the 1918 flu of mass closures of public places and instructions not to gather. Before that the bubonic plague there’s villages like Eyam that isolated themselves when they had an outbreak of plague.

More recently we had TB sanatoriums (church funded in the absence of a national health system as I understand it) and currently we close schools for outbreaks of notifiable diseases if the numbers are high enough and close hospitals to visitors for outbreaks of norovirus.

This isn’t entirely unprecedented, the scale needed is boggling, but our methods for corona are pretty basic standard infection control methods.

I wonder how many of the people going to great lengths to not “catch it” and shouting for more rules and lockdowns have actually had it and not noticed? Quite a few I reckon.

Guernsey have been “COVID free” for months. This week someone wanted to travel so went for a test as they needed a clear test to travel.

Turns out they were positive but didn’t have a clue. Track and trace kicked in and 60 people were tested. None of them thought they had it as the whole island is COVID free.

Turns out 7 tested positive. That’s over 10% of the people they tested and none of them had a scoooby. There are undoubtedly more positive cases there as they haven’t even been social distancing and have had virtually no restrictions on public gatherings etc.

It was there and no one knew. What does that tell you?

@Tiredeyesneedsleep

I wonder how many of the people going to great lengths to not “catch it” and shouting for more rules and lockdowns have actually had it and not noticed? Quite a few I reckon.

Guernsey have been “COVID free” for months. This week someone wanted to travel so went for a test as they needed a clear test to travel.

Turns out they were positive but didn’t have a clue. Track and trace kicked in and 60 people were tested. None of them thought they had it as the whole island is COVID free.

Turns out 7 tested positive. That’s over 10% of the people they tested and none of them had a scoooby. There are undoubtedly more positive cases there as they haven’t even been social distancing and have had virtually no restrictions on public gatherings etc.

It was there and no one knew. What does that tell you?

It’s tells me that very low levels in a population that is alert to the risks and compliment with preventative measures (such as testing for travel purposes) make it much easier to control and prevent overwhelming a health system whilst allowing the majority to go about their business.

What should it be telling me?

@Cornettoninja

I think you miss the point. There is no social distancing, large public gatherings, no masks.

It was only picked up because someone wanted to travel to a country that insists on a negative test prior to arrival. Hardly indicative of a killer disease.

No, I think I just don’t agree with your conclusion.

What’s your verdict on the death rates and hospitalisations elsewhere?

People get sick and die, especially in Autumn and Winter. That’s life unfortunately.

Personally I think the actions being taken are way over the top and I know lots of people who agree, also lots who don’t.

It splits people more than Brexit

@Cornettoninja

No, I think I just don’t agree with your conclusion.

What’s your verdict on the death rates and hospitalisations elsewhere?

North Dakota looks pretty ropey.

I went along with it all at first, since it was a new virus and all that, but I am becoming increasingly disillusioned with the scaremongering that's going on. The fallout, to my mind, is totally not worth it.

A big part of the problem, I think, is that in our society now any accident that befalls someone is someone else's fault to be litigated over, and nobody must die. People are kept alive in conditions we wouldn't allow our pets to undergo, and now that something has come along which is making some people die we can't deal with it. The Science is being used as an excuse for arse-covering.

I have just attempted to shelter from the rain under a large roof next to my local library. I was shooed away by the staff .Can anybody please explain me how I was a threat.

The sheltered area is about the size of half a football pitch btw.

Couldn’t agree more. I have said for months now that all the pandemic has shown is how poorly funded and managed the nhs has been for the last 30 odd years. We have an ageing population and science has provided us with the means to keep people alive who once would have died. If we want people to live longer it has to come at a cost. We therefore need to invest in more beds and the health care professionals to man those beds. We haven’t done this over many years so we are now faced with a virus that predominantly kills the old but we haven’t the resources to deal with it. Look at how we built the nightingale hospitals. Great we have the beds but oh dear no one to man them.

@cassgate

Couldn’t agree more. I have said for months now that all the pandemic has shown is how poorly funded and managed the nhs has been for the last 30 odd years. We have an ageing population and science has provided us with the means to keep people alive who once would have died. If we want people to live longer it has to come at a cost. We therefore need to invest in more beds and the health care professionals to man those beds. We haven’t done this over many years so we are now faced with a virus that predominantly kills the old but we haven’t the resources to deal with it. Look at how we built the nightingale hospitals. Great we have the beds but oh dear no one to man them.

My post was in response to Redtoothbrush.

@randomer

I have just attempted to shelter from the rain under a large roof next to my local library. I was shooed away by the staff .Can anybody please explain me how I was a threat.

The sheltered area is about the size of half a football pitch btw.

Every time I've been to my local library I've been greeted by some kind of "welcome" party comprising never fewer than 3 people ; one to point at the hand sanitiser, one seated at a little desk to hand me a pen and then sanitise it, and one spare doing not much of anything. I'm then directed to an inexplicable one way system around the books (which I do not follow). It's all so very over the top.

Great we have the beds but oh dear no one to man them
yup
we can rebuild you!
we have the technology!
(but we cant be arsed to train anyone to use it and we dont pay high enough wages to attract people to the roles that are needed)

@randomer

Is there any way of finding out How many "extra" people have died from Covid this years? Sadly a certan number of people will die in an average year.

Also what about non Covid deaths which could have been avoided ? i guess we will never know.

We are now entering a phase where ths restrictions may be contributing to deaths.
Its so confusing.

Sorry for anybody directly affected, I don't mean to sound heartless.

I have also wondered about this. If covid had been around last year, I feel it would have almost certainly killed my Ddad who was in his 80s, had end stage cancer and died a month after being admitted to a care home. He had a fever and infection the week he died. If he had contracted covid in either the hospital before he went to a care home, or in the home itself, he would have been listed as a victim of covid, but the primary cause would have been cancer.

However there were people that had been at the care home for several years and obviously weren't the same level of vulnerability, and likely would have had years ahead of them, so I'm not writing off covid deaths as "they would have died anyway" but I imagine some of them would have been. I am not for one moment saying the elderly are expendable, I have several relatives who are fit and healthy in their 80s and 90s, but some of the deaths would have been primarily caused by something else.

I'm sick of people maximising the virus.

"Loads of young healthy people have died"
"Vulnerable people are highly likely to die from it"
"Long covid is common"

Conversely, we need to take the severe implications of continued restrictions seriously. The economy, education, mental health and in many cases physical health are being left by the wayside.

We haven't had the capacitytolockdown before. We've not understood how virus work enough to make a decision like that. Nor have we had the social infrustrature to do so.
And yet we managed to survive all the previous pandemics.

If there was no testing facility, would we even know we are in a "second wave" right now?

@KitKatastrophe

We haven't had the capacitytolockdown before. We've not understood how virus work enough to make a decision like that. Nor have we had the social infrustrature to do so. And yet we managed to survive all the previous pandemics.

If there was no testing facility, would we even know we are in a "second wave" right now?

A bit like we were in February I suppose. it was only when the ambulance service, 111, hospital a&e and ICU became stretched that the country realised how much shit it was in. I'd say the increased testing is helping in someway despite what others may think.

Is there any way of finding out How many "extra" people have died from Covid this years? Sadly a certan number of people will die in an average year

The ONS is the generally accepted source for excess deaths.

Comparing a figures for the last five years showed a large rise in excess deaths over lockdown/spring (I think it was somewhere between 50-60k more deaths than the previous five years) but conversely we have had less deaths than the last five years comparable time period through summer.

Unfortunately this is another answer only time will give us. If our deaths (over and under) even out at the end of the year closer to the five year average total deaths that this shows there’s evidence that a lot of victims were near the end of their lives. If it doesn’t then the impact from covid is as high as we theorise it is.

That’s a big gamble to take with peoples lives before the data is available.

Excuse the multiple typos - shouldn’t be posting whilst supervising bedtime!

“It’s just flu but they’ve renamed it”
“Flu has a higher death rate”

We underestimate a multitide of common illnesses such as flu and norovirus as killers. Flu was responsible for 50 000 excess deaths in 2018 due to a combination of a long, hard winter favourable to respiritory illness and a vaccine that did not counter the appropriate strains. While Covid 19 is a new mutation, our bodies are used to coronaviruses, so it's not a totally novel virus and the majority of healthy people can fend it off without serious illness or indeed symptoms.

“For 99% of people it’s just like having the common cold”
As above. Clearly there is a problem for the minority of cases that require hospital intervention. Out main problem is medical capacity and staffing which is an annual problem.

“All nurses ever do is film tik Tok videos”
Stupid comment. But there are discrepencies in access to NHS services across the country and hospital trusts. Some have provided better care than others.

“Long covid doesn’t exist”
Clearly it does. The issue is more that medium and long term post-viral fatigue is under-investigated and disregarded. More research into this phenonemon would be useful. However for an illness that has existed for a year at the maximum, there are a lot of spurious claims about permanent effects.

“Masks cause severe neurological damage”!
Stupid comment, even from a dedicated mask-hater who thinks that the typical Joe Public mask is little more beneficial than a security blanket, and people would do better to take spacing and crowding more seriously. They do inhibit communication and social connection though. People wh are exempt should be able to feel confident to go about their business without discrimination or harassment.

As a society, there is too much emphisis on the virus and too little on the wider social and economic costs of the response. News reports from the first months of the year were genuinely alarming, but we've learned much more about who is suceptible, risk factors and treatments. I think there is a lit of sunk costs fallacy and covering up the state of the NHS with a convenient scapegoat going on.

In my own life, I'm careful about distancing, density of people and frequent mixing. I wear a visor as masks cause me genuine physical distress. I try to keep to lower risk situations, mainly outdoors where practical, but don't strictly follow all rules where they are illogical and have a worse outcome than strict aherence or in comparison to other rules. It doesn't mean I'm not taking it seriously, but critical thinking is important and blind adherence and fear are not healthy ways to live indefinitely.

@randomer

Is there any way of finding out How many "extra" people have died from Covid this years? Sadly a certan number of people will die in an average year.

Also what about non Covid deaths which could have been avoided ? i guess we will never know.

We are now entering a phase where ths restrictions may be contributing to deaths.
Its so confusing.

Sorry for anybody directly affected, I don't mean to sound heartless.

Good thing, too. Can you imagine a world in which no one ever died of anything?

Arguably, disease is not only inevitable, but necessary; it is one of the chief natural checks on population. It has functioned quite well that way among humans for millennia, and continues to function so among other animal species (in addition to all the new manmade pressures on them). A deeply unpopular way of looking at it, but nonetheless true.

Indeed, the partial success of attempts to cure all disease and indefinitely prolong human life, which are the legacy of the last century or so, are largely responsible for the human overpopulation and resulting environmental destruction that threatens not only humankind, but all life on Earth. Ironic, really. These things will come round in circles.

The notion of "excess" deaths in a world of nearly 8 billion humans is baffling to me... One of the many pieces of Covid-era terminology that make no sense to me.