Do we need a reality check about covid?

[TheSilence]

I’m so quiet about this in real life, and bite my tongue but I’m so sick of hearing certain things and it’s making me despair of the human race.

I am no scientist, nor do I especially understand research/data or statistics.

But in a nutshell, I am sick of people minimising this virus. I’ve seen and heard it for 7 months now and am most frustrated by these kinds of comments:

“It’s just flu but they’ve renamed it”
“Flu has a higher death rate”
“For 99% of people it’s just like having the common cold”
“All nurses ever do is film tik Tok videos”
“Long covid doesn’t exist”
“Masks cause severe neurological damage”!

This is just a few because I don’t want to rant too much, I haven’t even covered the vast amount of conspiracy theories I’ve read.

From my understanding, all of those statements I’ve said are wrong, but I’m aware that my understanding is wrong.
I know some people might be reading this thinking I’ve got it back to front and that people are over estimating this virus, but that hasn’t been my experience at all.

Bottom line is, the single most important thing about covid that makes it a severe threat is that it’s brand new. The people who understand these things barely understand this. When going into a battle or war, knowing and understanding your enemy gives you a huge advantage. It’s the same with this, and tbh I can’t get my head around the statements people make with such certainty, such as “I KNOW for a fact if I or my family get it we’ll definitely be fine” or “Long covid is DEFINITELY the same as any post viral syndrome”. How can these people be so ridiculously sure when scientists aren’t?

I hate the arrogance and huge egos of people in this country and other western countries.

And yes I’m struggling with severe mental health issues that I can’t get proper help for because of covid. As I know I sound very ranty and possibly angry.

I’m just saying - please take this seriously.

OP about the CBT. The first step is just being aware of thinking styles and questioning them. Before trying to change anything or link into behaviours etc. It sounds like you are self aware if you are recognising you can have some of those thinking styles (we mostly all do at times)

There are some useful things online and books also if there are waiting lists recently, good luck.

I think it is too simplistic to say this is a binary choice between totally ignoring/minimising the virus and complete hysteria/fear/keep us lockdown for a year...

The problem for me is that everything is very one-sided at the moment in the way information is reported and in the measures that are taken.

Everything is focused on virus/lockdowns while we have people losing their jobs, kids going hungry, a mental health crisis and people with conditions like cancer who have died or struggled to get treatment because of indiscriminate lockdowns.

There needs to be a balance somewhere.

Also , the reporting is always about new cases but strangely never about how many people recover. Not to mention the fact that we seem to have forgotten that on average about 1,400 people die everyday in the UK....

The reality is still that the majority of people will recover if they get the virus.

This virus is not going away, even when/if a vaccine comes in.

The government is not helping by messing up testing/track and trace and going after the hospitality industry when most cases seemed to have been caused by schools/university reopening.

People are not going to follow rules if they have lost trust in the so called leaders and the rules make no sense.

Humanity has faced new viruses throughout history. They did not go away by the population locking itself down for months/years...

Yes it is imagine being the sort of person who distances yourself over something that you have no idea is effective or not.

TrustTheGeneGenie Are you seriously still doubting the efficacy of masks against an airborne/droplet spread virus?

@toxtethOgradyUSA

OP - do you think if we all followed The Rules, everything would be okay?

No, not with our government. An early strategy back in January and a working test and trace system would have helped massively, then along with a sensible population it may have bought us some time to help avoid those thousands of deaths.

But now, in this situation? No, we are too far gone I think, in fact I see the UK as totally screwed right now in so many ways.

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow

I honestly believe one of the reasons we have such high positive tests and deaths is because we are such an unhealthy country.

Our obesity rates are shocking. Most people are overweight and in an inflamed state. Type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure and tummy fat. It’s a perfect storm.

We are also too woke to fell people, nicely, that they need to lose that weight as soon as they can before winter.

I remain baffled by people terrified of covid but happy to walk around with any number of lifestyle diseases which present a far higher risk to them overall

I do totally agree with this.

@Orangeblossom7777

OP about the CBT. The first step is just being aware of thinking styles and questioning them. Before trying to change anything or link into behaviours etc. It sounds like you are self aware if you are recognising you can have some of those thinking styles (we mostly all do at times)

There are some useful things online and books also if there are waiting lists recently, good luck.

Thanks so much @Orangeblossom7777 I appreciate that 💕 I’m quite self aware in some ways and have huge blind spots in others unfortunately!

I will try to have a look for some good online resources.

@TheClaws

Yes it is imagine being the sort of person who distances yourself over something that you have no idea is effective or not.

TrustTheGeneGenie Are you seriously still doubting the efficacy of masks against an airborne/droplet spread virus?

No, I'm sure if the appropriate medical grade masks were being worn properly they'd have some effect. I do however doubt the efficacy of think bits of material not worn properly and not washed properly yes.

@TheNewLook

Totally disagree OP. I think the world has collectively lost its mind. I also think those who give the advice (scientists) are so invested in their beliefs and research that they are holding their ground and attempting to save face when it has become very clear that Covid’s average victim is 82. The average life expectancy in this country is 81. A year of our lives has been wasted due to a virus that the vast majority won’t get and, if they do, they’ll not only survive but barely notice.

Thing is it doesn’t matter if it’s covid or appendicitis or 82 year olds or 30 year olds dying. Large numbers of people requiring hospital services and to an extent funeral services can (and will) cause a massive ripple effect. That’s the problem, not covid in and of its self.

If covid was a short illness and killed people quicker it would bring different problems but hospital infrastructure could probably cope better alongside normal services with the numbers we have seen. But covid doesn’t allow for that. It’s a long illness in people who are moderately to severely ill and needs fairly intensive medical intervention which uses up a lot of resources that simply aren’t there for the numbers needing them for the length of time they need them.

It’s almost irrelevant what is causing the pressure on the health service.

OP we are taking it seriously. We have no choice, unless we want to risk fines or judgement from neighbours. We also can’t physically open schools and shops/pubs ourselves if the government close them! So we are all taking it seriously in our actions, because it’s the law. But I’m afraid you can’t control our thoughts.

I think that anyone who feels it’s not being taken seriously enough, and is in a panic about Covid, should focus less on ranting on forums that the rest of us are far too casual. They should look at their own lifestyles - ensure that they are not one single pound overweight, ensure they don’t smoke, make sure they eat healthily and exercise regularly, take vitamin D supplements etc. Then just take whatever precautions they feel are necessary, and leave the rest of us alone.

I’m sorry of my lack of blind panic concerns you OP, but I will continue to think as I want to.

@manicinsomniac

I don't know, to be honest.

I have been taking it seriously so far and I'm still concerned for vulnerable people.

But I'm starting to think we need a reality check the other way - that actually we need to realise that there are lots of things that pose a danger ot our lives, Covid increases the danger of some of those other things and we need to be a bit more proportional in our response to Covid over and above everything else.

This.

And ive just ran numbers through my head on beds, cases, natural immunity, failure of t & t, restriction fatigue, chances of success with mass testing and the fact a vaccine if its like the flu vaccine could only protect 50% of people who have it, only over 50s getting the vaccine and i think our prospects for next winter being 'normal' may be less good than we currently realise and frankly its not a nice scenario but one that needs to be built into planning and the public prepared for slowly, in the hope that actually things will be better than that.

I had thought things would be ok going forward from next summer. My calculations on that are slipping back.

I do believe we need to switch from short term fire fighting to a longer term strategy because of that. I think the government have done that but the public aren't fully aware of it.

The announcement of mass testing as a way out has been pitched as something that will come into effect soon. However where we are on trials on this, and what the logistics and cost are suggest its a much longer term strategy than most people realise. Its going to be next summer before its probably viable to any degree and even then with considerable limitations. Its planning for next winter not a solution for this.

Because we are still likely to see problems with bed capacity due to covid next winter as hospitalisation rates are so much higher than flu ones and our excess bed capacity precovid was already problematic.

So far people have thought about this in terms of short goals / target points (eg end of full lockdown, reopening dates, christmas etc) and i think theres a need to switch to longer goal points to understand / process whats happening.

I think the government have done that but the public aren't fully aware of it
Redtoothbrush are you saying you think the government have a long-term strategy but they're not telling us about it yet?
Do you have a hunch about what the strategy is?

No, I'm sure if the appropriate medical grade masks were being worn properly they'd have some effect. I do however doubt the efficacy of think bits of material not worn properly and not washed properly yes.
After a while of wearing masks, I've come to realise what a spluttery laugher and talker I am, and if I cough it's not great either. A mask has to do something for other people in terms of people like me surely!

@Mintychoc1

OP we are taking it seriously. We have no choice, unless we want to risk fines or judgement from neighbours. We also can’t physically open schools and shops/pubs ourselves if the government close them! So we are all taking it seriously in our actions, because it’s the law. But I’m afraid you can’t control our thoughts.

I think that anyone who feels it’s not being taken seriously enough, and is in a panic about Covid, should focus less on ranting on forums that the rest of us are far too casual. They should look at their own lifestyles - ensure that they are not one single pound overweight, ensure they don’t smoke, make sure they eat healthily and exercise regularly, take vitamin D supplements etc. Then just take whatever precautions they feel are necessary, and leave the rest of us alone.

I’m sorry of my lack of blind panic concerns you OP, but I will continue to think as I want to.

I don’t want anyone to be in a ‘blind panic’ about anything, that achieves nothing at all.

Well the problem is that the people who have some of the thoughts that I listed, are then adjusting their behaviour according to those thoughts. So those who believe it’s the same as a cold or the flu are going around seeing whoever they want and happily breaking whatever laws they see fit.

I’m actually not running around in a panic about it believe it or not. I’m just quietly angry, mostly at the government for being so inept. And slightly towards people who think they know for sure things that even virologists don’t know.

Yes you’re right, there’s lots as an individual we can do to make sure we’re as low risk as possible.

And sorry for ranting on here, I have absolutely no one in real life that I can talk to about all this, so I had hoped a discussion site would be an appropriate place to vent, but according to a few comments on here it isn’t and people are not ok with it!

@TheSilence

@RedToothBrush Totally agree

@RedToothBrush I don’t disagree with anything you’ve posted but my confidence in testing/tracing is shot due to this government royally fucking it up. Remember the cries of ‘who could of foreseen a rise in demand for testing in September?’despite having literally months to prepare?

In terms of what our leadership can apparently manage to coordinate short term, fire fighting may be the only realistic option on the table. It’s shit and the government should be hung, drawn and quartered imho but realistically there aren’t many options if we haven’t got coordination at a national level.

@Requinblanc

I think it is too simplistic to say this is a binary choice between totally ignoring/minimising the virus and complete hysteria/fear/keep us lockdown for a year...

The problem for me is that everything is very one-sided at the moment in the way information is reported and in the measures that are taken.

Everything is focused on virus/lockdowns while we have people losing their jobs, kids going hungry, a mental health crisis and people with conditions like cancer who have died or struggled to get treatment because of indiscriminate lockdowns.

There needs to be a balance somewhere.

Also , the reporting is always about new cases but strangely never about how many people recover. Not to mention the fact that we seem to have forgotten that on average about 1,400 people die everyday in the UK....

The reality is still that the majority of people will recover if they get the virus.

This virus is not going away, even when/if a vaccine comes in.

The government is not helping by messing up testing/track and trace and going after the hospitality industry when most cases seemed to have been caused by schools/university reopening.

People are not going to follow rules if they have lost trust in the so called leaders and the rules make no sense.

Humanity has faced new viruses throughout history. They did not go away by the population locking itself down for months/years...

Agreed

People massively over-estimate the risk to younger people, it's thousands of times lower than the vulnerable.

For older people it's a threat and a fair bit more deadly than flu. For the under 25's it is less likely to kill you than flu.

The arguments about how to deal with it are what really divides people. One camp wants to hide away and thinks that it's possible to eliminate it, others look across Europe and see no major country has achieved this without using lockdown, and this isn't sustainable long term.

If I knew a vaccine would be available in large quantities for the millions of vulnerable at Christmas time, I'd support further measures for 6 weeks. A vaccine could however be much longer away, and ultimately not that effective.

There are some considering Covid potentially bi/multiphasic in a comparatively small group of people - there are some conditions that have research models that bi or multiphasic and as post-viral.

Multiple Sclerosis has viral-initiated models that include both. Few doubt MS is a very serious condition and including it as a post-viral condition (even with other possible causes) doesn't diminish that (it even has the same link with Vitamin D in some research as some around Covid is having).

Most likely, like most conditions that are linked to viruses, there are multiple causes - ICT treatment has already been recognized as a factor. They have linked viruses to POTS, but there is evidence that also links it to traumatic blood loss, puberty, pregnancy, and deconditioning. It still gets included in discussions on post-viral conditions even though for many the cause of their own isn't that clear.

As this open letter on the value of the term Long COVID' says:
"While waiting for further research, ‘Long Covid’ may, mechanistically, include patients with symptoms variously deriving from direct viral damage, immune response damage, opportunistic bacterial infections, and post-viral/post-sepsis symptoms. Additional post-traumatic and mental health symptoms might interact with physiological symptoms in complex ways. ‘Long Covid’ accounts for
the possibility of persistent viral infection with low levels of viral shedding; protracted immune reaction; latency; or the presence of virus in reservoir organs or tissues."

This type of hodgepodge happens with chronic conditions. It's batching together symptoms when there are many conditions with overlapping causes and issues. While there are some who say "it's post-viral syndrome" as if that explains everything and yes that is really annoying and dismissive, most - including the research that has been using that term and some patient-led groups, it's official recognition as a real medical issue - and like many medical issues, that means there is a fuckton we don't know and we're often grouped by similar experiences.

I agree some need to take some things involving Covid more seriously, but also there are some that go too far the other way (and the government has the former while at times acting the like the latter when it gets them out of other things).

I agree with others that other things need to be taken as seriously. My GP surgery have thankfully been prompt when needed (though less screenings for on-going conditions have been going on), I know others who have suffered significantly across medical and other issue because Covid. Isolation is a major issue, help for reconditioning after illness harms those who became very ill with covid and other conditions, and so many other things that we're just expected to ignore even as things deterorate with nothing really being discuss in how these things are going to change once Covid goes the way of similar diseases.

@RedToothBrush On my good days I like to believe that the government do have a long-term strategy that they're keeping silent about, and they're taking the view "if we tell the plebs about it, they'll think the pandemic is over, they'll become careless, they'll stop social distancing, they'll start hugging granny, etc. So we have to keep them docile and terrified: let's invent some more figures".

Remember how Ken Livingstone went to a lot of trouble to make the congestion charge look as if it was working? Introduced it in half term; roadworks everywhere in London just before which vanished as soon as it came in, mistimed traffic lights restored to normal on D-Day. Smoke and mirrors, to make it look as if it was working.

I think the reality is this is the perfect storm of a virus.

Its new, its serious but not so serious that it is clear that one path should be chosen over the other.

It is also I think far more studied than any other virus. We don't have proper comparisons to flu for example because flu isnt allowed unchecked and we dont take data from people

“Long covid is DEFINITELY the same as any post viral syndrome”

Post viral syndrome is awful and serious though. I have said before that one of the issues facing is not that we are minimising THIS virus but we have gotten so used to minimising ALL viruses we forget actually how vulnerable we are to viruses.

Coupled with the fact that this is now seen to be a cardiovascular disease which is the leading cause of death

@BiBabbles

There are some considering Covid potentially bi/multiphasic in a comparatively small group of people - there are some conditions that have research models that bi or multiphasic and as post-viral.

Multiple Sclerosis has viral-initiated models that include both. Few doubt MS is a very serious condition and including it as a post-viral condition (even with other possible causes) doesn't diminish that (it even has the same link with Vitamin D in some research as some around Covid is having).

Most likely, like most conditions that are linked to viruses, there are multiple causes - ICT treatment has already been recognized as a factor. They have linked viruses to POTS, but there is evidence that also links it to traumatic blood loss, puberty, pregnancy, and deconditioning. It still gets included in discussions on post-viral conditions even though for many the cause of their own isn't that clear.

As this open letter on the value of the term Long COVID' says:
"While waiting for further research, ‘Long Covid’ may, mechanistically, include patients with symptoms variously deriving from direct viral damage, immune response damage, opportunistic bacterial infections, and post-viral/post-sepsis symptoms. Additional post-traumatic and mental health symptoms might interact with physiological symptoms in complex ways. ‘Long Covid’ accounts for
the possibility of persistent viral infection with low levels of viral shedding; protracted immune reaction; latency; or the presence of virus in reservoir organs or tissues."

This type of hodgepodge happens with chronic conditions. It's batching together symptoms when there are many conditions with overlapping causes and issues. While there are some who say "it's post-viral syndrome" as if that explains everything and yes that is really annoying and dismissive, most - including the research that has been using that term and some patient-led groups, it's official recognition as a real medical issue - and like many medical issues, that means there is a fuckton we don't know and we're often grouped by similar experiences.

I agree some need to take some things involving Covid more seriously, but also there are some that go too far the other way (and the government has the former while at times acting the like the latter when it gets them out of other things).

I agree with others that other things need to be taken as seriously. My GP surgery have thankfully been prompt when needed (though less screenings for on-going conditions have been going on), I know others who have suffered significantly across medical and other issue because Covid. Isolation is a major issue, help for reconditioning after illness harms those who became very ill with covid and other conditions, and so many other things that we're just expected to ignore even as things deterorate with nothing really being discuss in how these things are going to change once Covid goes the way of similar diseases.

Thanks for this interesting and informative post.

@Quartz2208

I think the reality is this is the perfect storm of a virus.

Its new, its serious but not so serious that it is clear that one path should be chosen over the other.

It is also I think far more studied than any other virus. We don't have proper comparisons to flu for example because flu isnt allowed unchecked and we dont take data from people

“Long covid is DEFINITELY the same as any post viral syndrome”

Post viral syndrome is awful and serious though. I have said before that one of the issues facing is not that we are minimising THIS virus but we have gotten so used to minimising ALL viruses we forget actually how vulnerable we are to viruses.

Coupled with the fact that this is now seen to be a cardiovascular disease which is the leading cause of death

I very much agree, it’s the perfect storm, so many variables have come together and the solutions are so varied and none of them come without a cost.

You’re right, we minimise post viral illnesses and have done for too long. It makes me sad that it’s only now that people with ME for example are finally being acknowledged and understood.
I wish I knew what the answers to all of this were.

I just said on another thread at the heart of this is a long term issue of a public health crisis of inequality and chronic underfunding of beds leading to problems with bed blocking and the need for bed management that comes from that.

Covid just holds a mirror to this. And the solution certainly isn't to priortise health over wealth because you can't. The two are intrincisally linked. The places with the biggest covid problem are those with the biggest existing economic problems. You can't fix that by making the economics worse. This causes a fundamental problem because of how this ultimately clashes with Conservative ideology and policy making which has favoured austerity, low taxation and cuts.

As we move forward and we get a vaccine and survival rates improve we will still be left for some time with a problem of managing beds and how this impacts patients in others areas as well as covid.

How do you turn that around? How do you manage next winter too because its still likely to be worst than any other previous flu season where the health service is struggling. Looking at the data I think the hospitalisation rate for covid is about 10 times more than flu which has vaccines but these are only helpful to about half the people who have it. We may have greater natural immunity levels by then which reduce transmission, but we've already pushed transmission lower than its natural rate through restrictions. And the restrictions stop us building up higher levels of natural immunity as quickly - another catch 22. So we are still probably left with a basic math problem next year over beds.

And there aren't enough doctors and nurses out there to solve the problem going into next year because of the training required (and on this note even recruiting from abroad is off the cards - for this reason and because of how travel restrictions and visa issue add to it).

I don't know what the solution is, but its neither saying only your health matters we can rebuild the economy because of the link to health or we must prioritise the economy, because you can't avoid the bed problem.

Its an absoluete mess and it feels like we've basically painted ourselves into a corner over many many years of not getting this link.

@RedToothBrush that’s a very insightful post and I can’t help but agree. Covid has exposed years of neglect and failure to plan for things like this.