Pure data thread #1: Daily numbers, graphs, focused analyses

[BigChocFrenzy]

This is pure data, NOT for the "worried about Corona"

We welcome calm factual, data-driven contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these and avoid emotional venting or politics
📈 📉 📊 👍

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

COVID-19 Risk Factors
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
PHE Clinical RFs - summary & social vulnerability indicators
PHE Clinical RFs - respiratory disease
PHE Clinical RFs - non-respiratory - CVD,T1, T2, obesity, flu jab coverage
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - deprivation, demography, economic inactivity, ethnicity
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - Vulnerable Groups (1): care / nursing home, MH, visual disabilities
PHE Non-Clinical RFs - homeless, children in care, ESL

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

excellent way to see who is paying attention, @boy3 ;-)

@boys3 ! I mean....

I did a double take when I saw Bromley!! 👀

Ah, phew!

Thanks boys. Looks like Nottingham and Newcastle are heading in the right direction at least.

For those interested in economic outlook projections and impact so far:

home.kpmg/uk/en/home/insights/2018/09/uk-economic-outlook.html

www.ifs.org.uk/publications/15078

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.pwc.co.uk/premium/covid-19/uk-economic-update-covid-19.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiZuMzF-9DsAhXkRBUIHY4uB9sQFjADegQIDhAB&usg=AOvVaw2mQ70ViI8n2m6KWMisNEth&cshid=1603671596005" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.pwc.co.uk/premium/covid-19/uk-economic-update-covid-19.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiZuMzF-9DsAhXkRBUIHY4uB9sQFjADegQIDhAB&usg=AOvVaw2mQ70ViI8n2m6KWMisNEth&cshid=1603671596005

Last one shows projections for recovery with contained spread and second wave scenarios. Both the first two estimate 8-8.5% unemployment at the beginning of 2021 and also show impact and projected recovery by industry.

Data from US:

www.yelpeconomicaverage.com/business-closures-update-sep-2020

Hello, name change that won't change back for some reason.

I found this a sad read. Locals affected feel the eat out to help out was a big factor.

I remember my husband commenting on queues locally.

Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'We blame Eat Out To Help Out for our tragedy' www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54666568

That's a weird article, lots of people apparently saying they blame EOTHO, but nobody saying exactly why they have decided this is the one thing that contributed to spread. Are they really suggesting that they only had the many illegal non-distanced weddings because of EOTHO? They also note conspiracy theories that sound far more like the main problem.

This is dire:
"the neighbourhood testers, who find that there is no answer at about half of the houses they visit, and that residents who do answer often refuse to be tested."

Yes, not a lot if taking responsibility for sharing the conspiracy stuff on Facebook, no doubt bragging about his science degree.

August, Bradford Council was following up on illegal weddings: www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18672859.bradford-council-shut-number-weddings-restaurants-breaching-covid-rules/.
September, weddings in gardens and restaurants, a comment that some might have used EOTHO: www.leeds-live.co.uk/news/yorkshire-news/secret-weddings-lockdown-bradford-could-18887661?cmpredirect=.
The weddings are still going on, another place just closed down last week: www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18815350.bradford-restaurant-close-breaching-covid-regulations/.
Now in late October, "it was all fine until we were encouraged to use restaurants" and no mention of the complete disregard for distancing rules.

On one level I get it, nobody wants to take ownership that their own recklessness led to Uncle D dying, they have to blame someone. They really shouldn't be enabled in that though, or it leaves the impression that restaurants taking every covid measure are dangerous, rather than people listening to conspiracy theories and ignoring guidance are dangerous.

So who is the article aimed at, being bbc? (Obviously it's there for an auntie reason.)

The more news there is about the proximity of the vaccine the more I'm starting to think that the government knows full well that the current restrictions are not going to do very much at all and the plan is really just to slow things down by a few weeks and limp along until the vaccine materialises.

If so it's a gamble. We look to be following France's trajectory so likely to be up at 50k per day in maybe 3-4 weeks? Widespread vaccination unlikely before early next year (with a fair wind). Hopefully the restrictions buy us enough time.

Agree Sunshine, that seems to be the only plan. Limp along and hope the trial results are positive enough to merit an emergency licence. But if the extra tier 3 restrictions are doing little, and the evidence points against hospitality being high on the list of infection sources, why are the government risking more business failures and unemployment?

I've seen some saying vaccines aren't that effective if the virus gets wildly out of control - any epidemiology experts here know more about this?

That seems to be more or less the American plan : just try to make sure that 'people don't die' was pretty much quoted in The Times today.

I don't think we know the Tier 2/3 restrictions impact from 14th October. If we look back at March/ April, it took weeks for it to be clear that cases had dropped, wobbling along at the 5k level until May even though deaths peaked in April so real cases must also have peaked by end March. We have smaller test capacity issues now, but still there are test issues that will give lag time and uncomfortably high positivity rates. For people who don't follow closely it may have come as a surprise that cases were going up again, on its own that can change behaviours. I think we should hold our nerve another 2 weeks before announcing they aren't helping, because levelling may have started now with cases holding around 20k for a period. We should expect positivity rates to drop to 5% at least in each area before actual case numbers drop, and my finger in the air calc says those should start to drop within 2 weeks, cases dropping 1-4 weeks later in different areas depending on how high positivity is.

Perhaps I'm being too wildly optimistic again, and the positivity rates in some areas massively worry me because unidentified cases are what lets us down. It's not credible that we just have a much higher percentage testing who are infecte. I'd bet evens between the positive slant and following France albeit with a slower rate of increase initially.

My understanding of the MMR vaccine is that it is given twice because giving it once will only leave a certain percentage of babies with immunity. Giving the second dose means enough babies have immunity so that the incidence in the community is low enough to protect all. I wonder if this is the reason the COVID vaccination might be given twice? Are there any experts who can clarify?

That's a good enough comparison I think @ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough.
There are two types of repeat vaccine.

1. Repeat dose to ensure it takes the first time: MMR, Chickenpox, 6-in-1 (pertussis etc) need two doses to get to a high enough % coverage. They then are expected to last for your whole life.
2. Time-based repeat dose due to immunity waning: Pneumococcal, tetanus etc immunity can wear off after some time and need an extra dose.

Flu spans both. It has an extra dose given to particularly vulnerable elderly to ensure it takes; a lower proportion will be protected by the first dose but that proportion increases with a second dose. It is also altered for the most prevalent strains and given again each year on the basis immunity may have waned.
The covid vaccine has been discussed as fitting into both categories, similar to flu. This is a US article that's quite interesting:
www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/health/coronavirus-vaccine-two-doses/index.html

(Sorry, should clarify I'm not an expert, I happened to read a few specific articles on the topic.)

The Guardian talking about a report done by Kings Business School into small business closures and the impact of Covid on jobs (employ 60% of private sector workers).

news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHKrai4GQLuN7XSnVes71l8qFggEKg4IACoGCAowl6p7MN-zCTDMwRU?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen

Some early signs that the Oxford vaccine does produce a robust immune response in elderly people, which is good news.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/b15446e5-66f7-4e6a-947a-1b638769ff79

@ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough

My understanding of the MMR vaccine is that it is given twice because giving it once will only leave a certain percentage of babies with immunity. Giving the second dose means enough babies have immunity so that the incidence in the community is low enough to protect all. I wonder if this is the reason the COVID vaccination might be given twice? Are there any experts who can clarify?

Even when given twice, it doesn't always give immunity to mumps. My daughter had mumps in the spring, despite having had both the two MMR jabs. She said there were quite a number of non-MMR'd students in her year and the virus had been able to take hold in the university. Another of her medical school housemates who'd also been fully vaccinated caught mumps again too. it was a mild version, but still a nuisance and made her feel fairly rough.

@Abraid2 - there seems to be mumps and meningitis at one or another uni every year. Does anyone know why there isn't a programme to vaccinate the school leavers in their last year? As post-16 adults they could choose to catch up anything their parents missed in childhood too.

Sounds sensible,

@Abraid2 yes I was saying it gives immunity to a large percentage if given twice not to all. I don’t think any vaccine guarantees immunity which is a common misconception.