Sweden seeing much smaller increase in cases compared to rest of Europe

[SussexDeb]

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

No massive surge like in France, Spain, UK and Netherlands.

More and more it looks like Sweden has taken the right approach with limited restrictions. Avoiding fatigue among the public around the measures and making sure good hygiene is practiced.

@HalfPastThree

If we want to be in any way rational we have to compare Sweden's results with the predictions. The Imperial College style model predicted Sweden would have more than 50,000 deaths by now. It's had 5,918. That tells us something interesting and I'm not sure it's a good idea to dismiss it.

Yes it is interesting. But it doesn't mean that a strategy that works in one country will necessarily work in another.

I think those of you who doubt that Sweden and the UK are different (in terms of how coronavirus spreads) need to listen to those who actually know about both cultures......

@ineedaholidaynow

Did they do the right thing in care homes *@TheLobster*?

They did exactly the same as us and unlike us they actually acknowledge it as a mistake whereas the UK is still doing it. You sound bitter.

@HalfPastThree

I don't understand the whole "you can't compare Sweden to the UK, they're totally different" thing. Of course you can compare them. We're both democratic, largely urbanised, wealthy European countries, who have a population that seems susceptible to the disease. We're very similar. To say you're not allowed to feels like mind games.

If you can't compare the UK to Sweden, you also can't say we should copy the strategy of New Zealand, or South Korea.

If you can't understand, then pay attention to the people explaining why you can't, or look up articles about it. The demographics are different. The behaviours too.

And, indeed, for several reasons the strategies that were applied in NZ and SK aren't really applicable to the UK.
Different countries have distinct characteristics and distinct limitations. Even regions within the same country can vary.

It may be difficult for some people to understand, but it is still true.

@HalfPastThree

If we want to be in any way rational we have to compare Sweden's results with the predictions. The Imperial College style model predicted Sweden would have more than 50,000 deaths by now. It's had 5,918. That tells us something interesting and I'm not sure it's a good idea to dismiss it.

Despite some claims, the Swedish government and the population did react to covid.

The Imperial College model was just that, a model. It may have failed in parts but Sweden did end up having way more deaths than neighbouring countries.

And here we go again with the spread of disinformation. We absolutely can compare the UK and Sweden. Large parts of their population are centred in certain areas just like ours and in these areas, the density is high, just like ours.

One thing is density per square meter. Quite another density per home.
Sweden has a higher rate of single, or childless couple households.
Read about it.

The Imperial College model was just that, a model. It may have failed in parts but Sweden did end up having way more deaths than neighbouring countries.

We were told it would be catastrophic, though, and hospital capacity would be overwhelmed many times over. It didn't happen. This is interesting. We need to learn from it.

Now they're not seeing much of a second wave. Anders Tegnell predicted this. It's important evidence. It shouldn't be swept under the carpet.

@HalfPastThree

The Imperial College model was just that, a model. It may have failed in parts but Sweden did end up having way more deaths than neighbouring countries.

We were told it would be catastrophic, though, and hospital capacity would be overwhelmed many times over. It didn't happen. This is interesting. We need to learn from it.

Now they're not seeing much of a second wave. Anders Tegnell predicted this. It's important evidence. It shouldn't be swept under the carpet.

What do you think we can learn from it?

They're not seeing much of a second wave, now. Who knows. Other countries didn't see a first wave and are now with huge numbers. Others had a delayed second wave. It may be that Sweden is capable of surviving with minimal control measures and limited damage.
But, it is too early to tell for this wave. Europe is just starting it.
At least wait until Sweden starts reducing their numbers instead of increasing.

@Ecosse

If you look at the NRS figures for Scotland, we actually have 4600 deaths so Sturgeon has done much worse than Sweden.

Aren’t Mummypop’s figures broadly comparing like with like though - ie deaths from confirmed cases?

@HalfPastThree

If we want to be in any way rational we have to compare Sweden's results with the predictions. The Imperial College style model predicted Sweden would have more than 50,000 deaths by now. It's had 5,918. That tells us something interesting and I'm not sure it's a good idea to dismiss it.

Can't really hold Imperial responsible for it though, they cannot control what data people input etc. They have repeatedly had to clarify this:

"Neil Ferguson and Imperial did not produce a model for Sweden pointing to 85,000 deaths"

"Professor Ferguson and the Imperial COVID-19 response team never estimated 40,000 or 100,000 Swedish deaths. Imperial's work is being conflated with that of an entirely separate group of researchers"

mobile.twitter.com/imperialcollege/status/1307693797074178049

Just because some people produced a paper doesn't mean anyone should take it seriously. The paper makes some clearly ridiculous/ odd assumptions like over 90% of the Swedish population getting infected.
And even though it was done in April as a pre print, it was never peer reviewed. There has been an avalanche of poor quality pre-prints related to Covid-19 most of which never get to peer review.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=7leWXMr3ayk

@Derbygerbil

The issue is that Scotland’s testing rates have been very poor and were among the lowest in Europe at the start of the pandemic.

There were therefore many people who died without being tested (particularly in care homes where Sturgeon rapidly transferred in thousands of patients without tests or even after testing positive).

Is there an official MN list of 'countries that we are allowed to compare the UK with'? - obviously it's been decreed that Sweden can't be on it but it would be helpful to know which other nations we can look at and discuss.

I heard a Swede being interviewed who said social distancing was easy because Swedes are not particularly huggy/kissy people in terms of when meeting friends. If true, that would play its part in transmission rates surely.

I read an article from someone in Sweden who said slightly tongue in cheek that when they were told that you were meant to SD 2m they were in shock as that was closer than they normally get to people!

Sweden - 10,343,403 population - 5892 deaths - 0.057%

Scotland - 5,404,700 population - 2544 deaths - 0.047%

Or Yorkshire, a similar population to Scotland, at 2,686 deaths.

Who knows which country or region is doing well yet

Demographics, population density, travel hubs, size of housing, streets, shops, all sorts of variations

I’m not bitter @TheLobster, but just querying your comment that they had done the right thing.

Did I read somewhere that Stockholm had a higher death rate than London?

Deaths / Million population of Scandi / Nordic countries

585 Sweden
51 Norway
63 Finland
117 Denmark

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

118 Germany

The UK cannot be like NZ or SKorea or Japan - countries are too different

Cannot be like Sweden either:

50% of households are 1 person only
Paid parental leave to stay home with sick kids
1/12 the population density of UK

but, the UK could have aimed to be at Germany's level:
Germany has an older population
Land borders with 9 countries

I might compare the UK leadership with the US. Never with Germany.

I think I made the point earlier. Countries have different characteristics, so what works for one may not work for another.

Example: China was able to impose draconian lockdown measures, as they have a degree of control over their population that no government has in Europe, nor it is desirable that it has.

But my main point with countries like Sweden is how are they considered a success.
Clearly they didn't or won't have the same level of deaths of Spain or Italy, which had to introduce lockdowns. But they did worse than their neighbouring countries. They have admitted themselves they didn't do that well, FFS, so why are pps claiming they did?
We're still starting the cold season and any shouts of victory over this virus will likely be too premature.
But we're seeing what being "more like Sweden" has done to the rest of Europe. Because they're (we're) not.

Sweden has a population of 10 million.

Yes. Same as Portugal. And I wouldn't compare them either.

Except it's easier when looking at total number of cases and deaths.

They have admitted themselves they didn't do that well, FFS, so why are pps claiming they did?
Stop making it up Lweji. They admitted they got things wrong on care homes, and that alone.
People are claiming Sweden are a success because they managed to not have a lockdown - and all the dreadful consequences that brings in terms of depression, suicide spikes etc - while at the same time not experiencing the tens of thousands of deaths many predicted for them.
So that's why they are seen to be a success. It really is not rocket science.
I suspect from the dogmatic tone of your posts you are the kind of person who would never cede one inch on an issue, so I will leave it there.

FFS, Sweden is now debating putting the country into lockdown.

OP, stop spreading misinformation. Sweden is doing pretty badly out of this crisis. We should look up to countries that are doing well, not doing crap.

They've just had their highest daily rise since June, they now have the 12th highest death rate in the world, with 58.4 per 100,000 people.

That's NOT GOOD.

I wouldn't say things in Sweden continued exactly as pre Covid

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/history/2020/05/sweden-hasnt-locked-down-but-normal-life-is-a-luxury