Sweden seeing much smaller increase in cases compared to rest of Europe

[SussexDeb]

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

No massive surge like in France, Spain, UK and Netherlands.

More and more it looks like Sweden has taken the right approach with limited restrictions. Avoiding fatigue among the public around the measures and making sure good hygiene is practiced.

Define success
I would define success for Sweden as not having experienced the catastrophic death rates many predicted when the country said it would not follow others by going into full lockdown. People were saying Sweden would have 80,000 + deaths. It never happened - it never even remotely happened. Why won't these people just admit it, they got it badly wrong on Sweden?
Nobody is saying Sweden is out of the woods yet. Its policies may still prove to be flawed. But, based on what we have seen so far, there is a strong argument for suggesting it has got the balance about right.

@Ecosse

Late June is 4 months ago *@CoffeeandCroissant*.

There seems to be a consistent effort from the lockdown fanatics to disparage and attack Sweden’s success as their doom-mongering has been proved wrong.

And Swedish case numbers have been low in July to September, so those figures should still be fairly accurate.

As for the ridiculous phrase 'lockdown fanatics' nobody sensible is actually pro lockdowns. They are a measure of last resort. Pointing out factual data is not "doom mongering" either.

"People were saying Sweden would have 80,000 + deaths"

Who were these people?

@Lweji

Success means preventing health services being overwhelmed and protecting the vulnerable, while retaining as much of normal life as possible and a functioning economy.

Sweden would be the first to admit that they have not succeeded in protecting care homes as much as they would like.

However, we cannot and should not try to prevent all COVID deaths. We do not do it for any other condition and the costs of doing so in lives and finances are simply too high.

You cannot compare Sweden to the UK, it's completely different & FAR more spread out than we are. I agree that Germany, bar size is a better comparison

Wonder what the knock on effect is though on other deaths. My very poorly father in law was booted out of hospital because they had a single incoming Covid patient they were unprepared for. My FIL died at home soon after.

Sweden did disastrously in care homes, didn't they?

Husband's Swedish. He's not at all impressed with how the country has tackled issues.

As for the ridiculous phrase 'lockdown fanatics' nobody sensible is actually pro lockdowns.
I actually think it's a very reasonable description in some instances. There seems to be a sizeable minority of people who have become so completely blinkered to any other ways of tackling this. Lockdowns, for them, are the only possible solution.

You cannot compare Sweden to the UK, it's completely different & FAR more spread out than we are. I agree that Germany, bar size is a better comparison
And here we go again with the spread of disinformation. We absolutely can compare the UK and Sweden. Large parts of their population are centred in certain areas just like ours and in these areas, the density is high, just like ours.

I may be incorrect but I think the 80k Swedish mortality figure comes from a transfer of Imperial College’s methodology?

Anyhow I think of Sweden as a Hare and most of the rest of the world as Tortoises unless we get a decent vaccine or treatment - so it’s wrong to take a snapshot & pass judgement on them right now

@GCAcademic

Sweden is a completely different kind of country to the U.K. Different demographics, different population density, high proportion of single-occupancy households.

The people more likely to follow guidelines as well like social distancing. It's not like they've all been going to parties every week, the country is far less urbanised.

The Sweden thing is a complete fallacy in terms of the UK's approach as you say. It's not comparable in any way.

The people more likely to follow guidelines as well like social distancing.
How do you know? How does anybody know? I keep seeing this comment. It's ridiculous. Completely without foundation.

I actually think it's a very reasonable description in some instances. There seems to be a sizeable minority of people who have become so completely blinkered to any other ways of tackling this. Lockdowns, for them, are the only possible solution.

Not at all, unfortunately we have a population with large swathes of anti mask Covid deniers, that sadly makes anything else unworkable

Vietnam for example dealt with it really well by masks, distancing, super cleanliness, closing airports & no lockdown. It worked because the people all took it very seriously & followed guidelines to the letter. So you are right, it can be dome without lockdown, but unfortunately not here until everyone takes it seriously

Tox I think you need to look at some actual maps & compare the 2, you'll find it isn't disinformation

As PP says, when it comes to Sweden you have to compare to similar populated areas. Otherwise it paints a confused picture. Density of population is going to be a big factor on viral spread.

Sweden did disastrously in care homes, didn't they?

Yes, with some similar issues to the UK. Slow to lock them down, not taking into account care workers work in multiple places, slow with financial compensation if you stay off sick, slow with penalties for those who didn't comply. There were cases of care workers who had covid still going into work as they couldn't afford not too.

The people more likely to follow guidelines as well like social distancing.

How do you know? How does anybody know? I keep seeing this comment. It's ridiculous. Completely without foundation.

Like everywhere there are some that do and some that don't. Our kulture school, where the kids go for arts lessons, have the rule that parents cannot go in the building now. Kids go in alone and if they can't, the teacher will meet them at the door. Twice a week I drop DS for his lessons and wait in the car outside until he comes out. Every time he is the only kid who goes in without a parent while I'm there.

I also know that DH is getting very stressed with the students at his university who he keeps finding huddled together in the lunch room as if there's nothing going on.

@MummyPop00

Oh and...

Sweden - 10,343,403 population - 5892 deaths - 0.057%

Scotland - 5,404,700 population - 2544 deaths - 0.047%

...no-nonsense Nicola Sturgeon hasn’t done too much better so far

This is they key point in my opinion because the costs of the restrictions (economically/educationlly/ socially are so high. For that to have been worth it the benefits would have had to have been huge and so far thats not at all what we're seeing.

@toxtethOgradyUSA

The people more likely to follow guidelines as well like social distancing. How do you know? How does anybody know? I keep seeing this comment. It's ridiculous. Completely without foundation.

"How does anybody know?". If you knew about Swedish culture you would know that this is true.

As for the ridiculous phrase 'lockdown fanatics' nobody sensible is actually pro lockdowns.

Who is pro lockdown? Me saying that Sweden is different to the UK doesn't mean I love lockdowns. I would have loved to follow the Taiwanese model but I don't live in Taiwan.

How do you know? How does anybody know? I keep seeing this comment. It's ridiculous. Completely without foundation.

Well @toxtethOgradyUSA why do you find evidence to disprove what some posters are saying?

I should have included in my last post that although it seems the other parents are not following the rules, there classes are only half the size as it seems other parents are just keeping their kids away.

Things may well have gone well in Sweden, and Germany and other places but it does NOT mean that that their approach would necessarily have worked here. Totally different demographic, but more to the point people are generally compliant and trusting of the way their governments are handling things.

I don't understand the whole "you can't compare Sweden to the UK, they're totally different" thing. Of course you can compare them. We're both democratic, largely urbanised, wealthy European countries, who have a population that seems susceptible to the disease. We're very similar. To say you're not allowed to feels like mind games.

If you can't compare the UK to Sweden, you also can't say we should copy the strategy of New Zealand, or South Korea.

If we want to be in any way rational we have to compare Sweden's results with the predictions. The Imperial College style model predicted Sweden would have more than 50,000 deaths by now. It's had 5,918. That tells us something interesting and I'm not sure it's a good idea to dismiss it.

I would have preferred the Swedish strategy but it still would have been a terrible price and traumatic time. There's only less horrible ways forward, no good scenarios.