Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

[quote Ecosse]@SheepandCow

There’s no evidence that COVID patients will suffer symptoms for years. The vast majority of people who have extended symptoms have none after 3 months.[/quote]
As the saying goes "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidence_of_absence

Ecosse i suggest you a) check data before posting completely inaccurate shite b) understand evidence, data and statistics and how they work before putting posts like that.

Your last two posts dont say a lot for your opinion.

[quote Ecosse]@SheepandCow

There’s no evidence that COVID patients will suffer symptoms for years. The vast majority of people who have extended symptoms have none after 3 months.[/quote]
At this very early stage there's no evidence they won't have long-term symptoms.

Where did you get your figures from?
The cash-strapped NHS was clearly concerned enough to set up treatment clinics.

Cardiologists have written of their concern over heart damage seen in patients. Quite possibly permanent damage.

There's also growing evidence of lung or kidney damage, triggering of type 1 diabetes, and blood clotting issues.

I'll find the article published in the BMJ, written by a group of doctors who are suffering from Long Covid.

@RedToothBrush
I'm another who types slowly!

@TheSunIsStillShining

*@Ecosse* this figure reminded me of experiment where in a survey in the US they found that 56 percent of Americans would like Arabic numerals banned in schools. (on a data thread I have to add: 56% of all responders said and it was not a representative sample. But still.... )

snigger

news.sky.com/story/long-covid-the-debilitating-after-effects-of-coronavirus-12104961
COVID-19 became a pandemic in March 2020, but the after-effects of it are becoming more apparent as many people are suffering from a wide variety of symptoms months after contracting the disease.
Long COVID - as it is being called - has been affecting some of the earliest COVID-19 sufferers since the first few months of 2020.

But little is known about it and the huge variety of symptoms is making research very difficult.

Here, we look at what the symptoms of long COVID are, how it has affected people's lives, how many are suffering, what treatments there are and how it could affect the economy.

Symptoms vary from person to person, but many who experience them didn't need hospital treatment or were even tested for their initial COVID-19 illness. Some may have even been asymptomatic.

Some studies have found 10% of people who have mild COVID-19 will go on to have long COVID, but other studies have estimated as many as 35% will.

It goes on to give case studies - several of whom are highly qualified medics who have been unfortunate to suddenly present with various debilitating symptoms since catching covid.

I guess this isnt evidence and i guess that the studies that the report mentions are also just made up.

Thats taken me preciously 5 minutes to find and type this post....

Here's the figures for one London Hospital trust. It covers a lot of east London.

www.bartshealth.nhs.uk/news/latest-update-on-coronavirus-at-barts-health-hospitals--7729

67 confirmed Covid cases.
17 in ICU

Daniel Hewitt @danielhewittitv
NEW: The letter sent to @AndyBurnhamGM and @SirRichardLeese by @RobertJenrick offering Greater Manchester £22m in additional funding for entering Tier 3.

A Labour MP points out that is less money for GM (population 2.8m) than Merseyside (1.5m) and Lancashire (1m).

Thats going to go down REALLY well in Greater Manchester...

"We are disappointed that Govt has today sought to raise public concern about the NHS in Greater Manchester with selective statistics.. ICU occupancy rate is not abnormal for this time of year & comparable to the occupancy in October 2019" - @AndyBurnhamGM

Pippa Crear @pippacrear
This is letter sent to Greater Manchester council leaders:

Govt offering them £22m for 2.8m ppl and is “open” to looking at more to support local biz.

Lancashire got £42m for 1.5m ppl

Merseyside got £44m for 1.5m ppl

One GM politician tells me: “Utter pisstake”.

An alternative reading is that if Merseyside and Lancashire, with their populations of 1.5m each, got £42/ £44m, then GM with its population of 2.8m could get around £75m after more discussions.

This, of course, is the figure that was flying around earlier today.

Am I being stupid... shouldn't it be the same amount of money everywhere?

@SheepandCow

Am I being stupid... shouldn't it be the same amount of money everywhere?

Nope its not you who is being stupid.

i love the euphemisms on this thread atm :)

If you are unfortunate enough to need hospital treatment when you get covid the figures with long term effects are probably higher www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-oxford-university/oxford-university-says-covid-19-patients-experience-symptoms-months-after-contracting-virus-idUSKBN27413C?utm_source=reddit.com

But the U.K. government would certainly not be subsiding his lockdown if I were in charge.

Thank goodness you aren't.

@alreadytaken
I was just reading about that Oxford study.
They're concerned about long-term problems (Long Covid) in younger low risk patients.

I posted this on another thread but think it's worth doing so here too. Following on from Red's info on the Manchester situation.

One of the SAGE experts, Prof Stephen Reicher, makes a lot of sense. He tweeted:

Infection rates are up in every area and in every age group. Hospitalisations and ICU usage is sharply up. We are about to lose control of the pandemic and half-hearted actions won't get it back. The tier system was a good idea in theory, bungled in practice, now out of time.

mobile.twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1318129048443387905

@ReicherStephen
The COVID 'tier system' is a good idea so badly mishandled that it is now worse than useless.
The idea was to have different levels of restrictions with objective criteria for applying them. This would bring clarity, equity and hence local buy-in.
But what actually happened...

First, the criteria for which area is in which tier has become morre a matter of political bargaining that case levels. Additionally the actual restrictions in the same tier vary between areas. So, rather than bringing clarity, things are more confused than ever.

Second, because it is unclear why some places are in the highest tiers, plus the fact that support for those whose businesses and jobs are affected is lower than under the March restrictions, the new measures have actually heightened rather than reduced the sense of unfairness.

Third, rather than involving local Government and people, decisions have been imposed as diktats from on high. This has caused alienation and created paralysing argument when urgent action is necessary. If Government wants buy-in it must treat localities as partners, not vassals

Fourth, in the absence of adequate support, moving to higher tiers is experienced as a punishment and hence generates resistance. What is more, in a context where government equates infectiion with misbehaviiour and hence a basis for blame, it also generates resentment.

Fifth, and most critically, the Government has delayed so long that a local response is no longer adequate. It is almost a month since SAGE called for a national circuit-breaker. At that time infections were under 5,000 a day, tthey are now pushing 20,000 - a fourfold increase.

Tier system should have been established before August.

We'd have all known where we stood over the summer and tires would have been triggered automatically in sept, no mass scramble.

(Being in an area where going into a higher tier actually relaxed local restrictions has brought a lot of eye rolling locally.)

*Tiers

This is very sad.

Very concerning too regarding outcomes , which could still be yet to be seen in some cases.

Long Covid: St Annes man dies after cardiac arrest www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-54597619

If Parliament voted for lollipops for everyone, we’d all be sucking one. Bit it won’t, because that’s nonsensical. Similarly to abolishing devolved Wales.

but

@RedToothBrush When someone has been repeatedly informed (by several different people) that their interpretation of facts is inaccurate but they continue to actively promote that inaccuracy (on threads other than this) then they clearly have an agenda.

This seems to be intent to deceive rather than lack of numeracy.