Chris Whitty saying even tier 3 probably wont be enough to reduce the R

[KetoPenguin]

What do you think this means for areas in tier 3, total lockdown? How soon do you think this would happen and how likely is it for tier 2 areas to be upgraded to the same level? Do you think the much rumoured circuit breaker over half term is likely at least in these areas?

CW is probably frustrated. He knows what needs to happen to stop this disease, but knows that would sink the economy. So he has to step back and watch the numbers go up, just like the rest of us.

@SoUtterlyGroundDown

So where the fuck does it leave us? Our Prime Minister announces a series of measures that are going to force entire businesses to close permanently (the financial support just isn’t enough to keep many functioning), and then our Chief Medical Officer helpfully adds that they won’t work. Fab. Really gives you faith in the strategy, doesn’t it?

When you see it like that it’s a fucking shambles. Wish the PM and his advisers would fuck off along with Covid itself.

What sage apparently suggested was a 2 week lockdown a few weeks ago to get things under control

Which to me seems better than longer albeit less severe restrictions

So now we have places likely to be closed for months and months, all to avoid closing places for 2 weeks a month ago

I've just read sage tried to recommend no contact within households! Is it just me or is that madness.

So for all you lockdown loving whitty worshippers - tier 3 apparently won't work. So would you be happy living in total lockdown or tier 3 until a vaccine, or, forever if a vaccine doesn't come?

Because ok whitty wants to stop Corona of course he does that's his job, but do you really honestly believe it's a good solution? Are you personally happy with these restrictions for a very long period of time even though the Messiah has told us that they will not work?

The thing is his plan is lockdown. But lockdown has to end and it doesn't seem like he has a plan past that because lockdown is his plan. It's his solution isn't it? But we aren't numbers we are people!

Was it a missprint stealth? I don’t see how that could be possible. Maybe in all adult households but you share so many rooms- kitchens, bathrooms etc

Seems madness

Trustthegenegenie to be fair to Whitty I don’t think lockdown is his plan. It’s more his last resort. The plan would probably involve a functioning test trace system and masks in busy areas.

All contact inside homes with members of other households

@Chickenandrice

Trustthegenegenie to be fair to Whitty I don’t think lockdown is his plan. It’s more his last resort. The plan would probably involve a functioning test trace system and masks in busy areas.

So why haven't we got that?

It can't be a choice of lockdown or nowt. These are people's lives.

It is lockdown really. The clowns just don't want to call it lockdown; the media are doing that.

I'm sure they're also going for herd immunity by stealth, without making that the official strategy.

Ahhh. Knee my reading skills weren't up to scratch when also making breakfast. Thanks.
I assumed that was the rule anyway, 2m rule and all that.

I agree trustthegenegenie but it’s not Whittys fault I don’t think? Other people are responsible for these things

I can't help feeling that the measures announced yesterday for tier 3 are enough to destroy many small businesses (not just pubs etc, but also their suppliers etc) but not enough to bring the R rate down far enough.

I can't help feeling some sort of 'circuit breaker' lockdown is inevitable and that it would have been better to do it now (or even earlier) rather than wait a few months until businesses are even weaker and hospitals are fuller.

@Chickenandrice

I agree trustthegenegenie but it’s not Whittys fault I don’t think? Other people are responsible for these things

Oh yeah don't worry I think the rest of them are useless arseholes as well. They've all been shite from start to finish.

@SoUtterlyGroundDown

So where the fuck does it leave us? Our Prime Minister announces a series of measures that are going to force entire businesses to close permanently (the financial support just isn’t enough to keep many functioning), and then our Chief Medical Officer helpfully adds that they won’t work. Fab. Really gives you faith in the strategy, doesn’t it?

Yes its killing the economy slowly and persons quicker. You could just as easily kill the economy quicker and persons slower!

Or, you could make different decisions altogether. It doesn't need to be either or. But it does require a complete break with neoliberal economic orthodoxy.

We all know what needs to close to reduce the r number, but it is socially and politically unpalatable to say it...

While schools and universities are open we haven’t a chance in hell.

I don’t want them to close but I can see they need to be, even if just long enough to get a grip on track and trace and making schools safer.

On the one hand shut schools, education will suffer but the playing field can be levelled afterwards. 8% of the workforce inconvenienced. While leaving businesses, that can effectively SD well alone and keeping the rest of the economy going.

Or do what we are doing now, trash the rest of the economy for absolutely no reason because it won’t do feck all.

what Chris said ( or sage wrote) is that because out test, trace and isolate is inadequate we have these problems

Surprised no one else has picked up on this as it's as near a critisim of the uk gov as anything so far from the team

TrustTheGeneGenie, "kicking the can down the road"

Yes, this. But that is exactly what needs to be done now, at this precise point in time. Lockdown buys us time, it won't solve the issue or kill the virus, or return life to normal quickly. It simply buys time so that treatments can improve, a vacine can be found, the NHS isn't overwhelmed, and if we were to look back in 50 years from now the aggregated total deaths would be less (not as you might assume more, or the same) than if we don't stamp down on transmission rates. We need to buy time.

Boris is doing this now but his focus is "economy" so he thinks dragging his heels and having half measures will buy time to keep the economy limping forward whilst treatments improve, or vacine is found. Its a slow death to our GDP and to businesses, whilst allowing more people to die. Its not rational. In fact long term it will do more harm.

So why are all Tier 2 and 3 areas to the north of Birmingham? Have no students moved into halls to the south of a Birmingham?

There certainly are outbreaks of corona in southern universities, my closest one has a huge outbreak that never seems to quite make the news, but the difference is it seems more contained and hasn't, to date, spread hugely into the local community. The students are on a local lockdown and not allowed to mix households for at least two weeks and I think this might be extended.

Not everywhere is the same, there is no point collapsing our local economy which is fragile enough when there's not that much community spread and local rates are low.

His plan is, and always has been, rolling lockdowns with various levels of restrictions to buy time while a fully functioning test and trace system was set up and then more limited rolling measures until a vaccine or cure. This is essentially every country in the world’s plan. Some have managed the test, trace, isolate so well that their need for rolling lockdowns is already reduced. Unfortunately our government have royally fucked up test and trace and are reluctant to go for nationwide lockdowns. The country has also been repeatedly mislead by a PM telling us it’ll all be over in x weeks, when he could have been explaining that rolling restrictions would continue to be necessary.

When Kier Starmer is PM and sets up an inquiry into all the unnecessary deaths, I imagine Whitty’s will be the most interesting testimony.

Chris Whitty’s job is not to make the plans. The government’s job is to make the plans. They ask him, he advises them of facts related to Covid

Exactly and the government then has to balance that with the economy. I dont see how we can continue doing this every few weeks- we already locked down and we are now in the same place we were in March. How long can we keep going on like this? we are destroying ourselves- this could go on for years if the vaccine isnt effective. Even the World Health Organisation is against draconian lockdowns for the very same reason- they are unsustainable long term. They are a short sharp measure but they arent something we should be doing regularly for months and months! If we had an effective track and trace in place and testing facilities we could contain this without the need for lockdowns but we dont because the stupid fcking government cant get their act together to sort it.

In my mind, lockdown is the medical equivalent to chemotherapy- might work at the time but it also destroys everything around it too meaning we are weak and ill and more vulnerable to the disease in future. Going forward, we need a new strategy because this rollercoaster that we are on is simply not sustainable.

@MiniTheMinx

TrustTheGeneGenie, "kicking the can down the road"

Yes, this. But that is exactly what needs to be done now, at this precise point in time. Lockdown buys us time, it won't solve the issue or kill the virus, or return life to normal quickly. It simply buys time so that treatments can improve, a vacine can be found, the NHS isn't overwhelmed, and if we were to look back in 50 years from now the aggregated total deaths would be less (not as you might assume more, or the same) than if we don't stamp down on transmission rates. We need to buy time.

Boris is doing this now but his focus is "economy" so he thinks dragging his heels and having half measures will buy time to keep the economy limping forward whilst treatments improve, or vacine is found. Its a slow death to our GDP and to businesses, whilst allowing more people to die. Its not rational. In fact long term it will do more harm.

We had a very long lockdown last time to "buy time" but they did fuck all and now here we are again, the people of the UK, being punished with lockdown again because they didn't use the first one wisely whilst being told it's all our fault. We are paying for their mistakes and it baffles me that most people can't see that.

@Chickenandrice

Trustthegenegenie to be fair to Whitty I don’t think lockdown is his plan. It’s more his last resort. The plan would probably involve a functioning test trace system and masks in busy areas.

This.

I’m fairly certain that Whitty will be aware of the risks of lockdown and wouldn’t use it as his main strategy. But you need to have another working strategy in order to avoid it. The government have fucked it and that isn’t Whitty’s fault. It’s looking more and more like a lockdown is inevitable to bring it under control so the question is really do we go early or late. And it looks like the government’s answer is going to be late, aiming for the worst of both worlds in terms of economy and lives.

Really gives you faith in the strategy, doesn’t it?

Has anyone had any faith in anything they've done from day one, did anyone expect any different?

For me, as soon as this all started, it was a case of "now watch them really fuck this up".