Is the North being thrown to the wolves?

[DilemmaDerby]

All those buying cities that were in growth Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds. A big red splotch over Yorkshire when parts are fine.

Not a theorist, total compliance at the beginning, but with the edicts of no non-essential travel in and out. It’s all going a bit Hunger Games for my liking!

Many people aren't sticking to the rules all around the country, not just the north.

I have a theory that testing appears to be concentrated around cities (and university towns) so the number of cases spikes in part due to the conccentration of testing in that location. So then it looks like there is a breakout when actually it is just a concentration of testing capability.

Additionally there appears to be reports of the number of cases levelling off....so not sure which is true.

We can't send students home, we'll spread it everywhere then! 42.5% of students tested positive in one Manchester study, at that rate the student population will soon have herd immunity ( at least in the short term) and infections will level off.

Also in the north and don't see many complying, I imagine it varies massively between areas!

@Pr1mr0se

Many people aren't sticking to the rules all around the country, not just the north.

I have a theory that testing appears to be concentrated around cities (and university towns) so the number of cases spikes in part due to the conccentration of testing in that location. So then it looks like there is a breakout when actually it is just a concentration of testing capability.

Additionally there appears to be reports of the number of cases levelling off....so not sure which is true.

This could well contribute, Especially when the vast majority of students testing positive have no symptoms.

It does seem strange. I live in a part of London where cases are rising on par with a lot of the northern areas that are being mooted for a tier 3 lockdown, but there has been no mention of it happening here. Of course maybe we'll have a nasty shock when Boris makes his announcement this eve!

CeibaTree, there has been mention of London lockdowns; Sadiq Khan has been reported widely as saying he's concerned about cases in London and seems to be hinting heavily that lockdowns may happen.

@IntermittentParps

CeibaTree, there has been mention of London lockdowns; Sadiq Khan has been reported widely as saying he's concerned about cases in London and seems to be hinting heavily that lockdowns may happen.

He's been saying that for a while though even before the tier system was unveiled and he doesn't appear to have any real influence over the situation - my point is that the media and hints from the government are focussing on the north really. But as I said we shall see what transpires this eve!

In order to ease the burden, I think there should be higher support (eg prevent evictions, stop utilities cut off, rations distribution). The financial support should be higher for those with more restrictions. It will not solve all problems. but then it will be more that the parts of the country that have low cases can keep working and support the places which are making great sacrifices with their quality of life and freedoms.

Boris in Parliament at 3:30 so we should know by then. Was reported this morning that Liverpool hospital seeing higher admissions than in March/April. Let’s hope treatment has improved a lot and we don’t see the death rate back then.

In Liverpool although the universities have contributed to the numbers, the cases were already out of control before the students arrived. University of Liverpool has now gone fully remote teaching. It’s a pity that decision was taken before they took the money from students for accommodation.

@cathyandclare

We can't send students home, we'll spread it everywhere then! 42.5% of students tested positive in one Manchester study, at that rate the student population will soon have herd immunity ( at least in the short term) and infections will level off.

I didn't think it needed spelling out that they'd need to test & isolate etc first! I'm not suggesting sending infected students all over the country! FGS

It also concerns me that it does seem the death rate Vs infection rate in the north is higher. But the reason for that is increased poverty related health issues, higher housing density, more likely to be working in exposed jobs.

While we need to protect people, the fact that we have always been at risk of more poverty which then leads to higher health issues, and Westminster centric governance solution? Shut everything down which will kick start yet more long term poverty, more ill health and round and round and round we go.

The skeptic in me doesn’t see a massive step change in finances flowing to the North to dig us back out of this crap again and stimulate the economy.

Scotland is technically in a worse position, but at least with devolved powers central government are under obligation to keep paying. Not so much for Yorkshire et al.

How would the leafy suburbs of London with low infection rates like being lumped in with Redbridge, who have higher cases per 100k then some areas of the North that are already in lockdown?

Would you be happier to comply if it was needlessly the entire country? Illogically, yes. Compliance is good where I am, mask wearing, no large gatherings etc. Since early March I have seen my son once, my father for 5 mins through a window, and seen friends outside three times. It would be tolerable if it were the same for everybody, but difficult seeing people on MN saying "of course you can see friends". And now we're getting a stream of smug posts saying "well it's your own fault".

This discussion is pointless when people have such huge chips on their shoulders.

I swear some people have never been to the South of England. It's like they think there's no poverty, no over subscribed schools etc.

@MJMG2015

I think that trying to control it in a population with such high numbers and so few symptoms is like King Canute trying to control the sea. We'd test them, while they were waiting for results they may see someone, by the time they go home the virus has spread.

Also they're adults. Many are in private rentals with mates, that they've paid for. How can we possibly enforce sending them home in a free society?

@MereDintofPandiculation

Would you be happier to comply if it was needlessly the entire country? Illogically, yes. Compliance is good where I am, mask wearing, no large gatherings etc. Since early March I have seen my son once, my father for 5 mins through a window, and seen friends outside three times. It would be tolerable if it were the same for everybody, but difficult seeing people on MN saying "of course you can see friends". And now we're getting a stream of smug posts saying "well it's your own fault".

I agree it's more difficult when others have lighter restrictions. It's also more difficult when others have big houses & gardens, yet some are stuck in pokey high rise flats with several kids. Or with scary neighbours.

However, whilst I personally would be happy to have the same restrictions here, (I've done even less socialising than you), I try to keep my focus on keeping me & my lives one as risk free as I can. So whilst it's hard to see/read about people enjoying days out/meals out, I make the choice not to do things that puts us at greater risk - so I feel more in control (& less dictated to)

Weirdly though I was watching TV last night & it was London based drama (7:39) and they were on a crowded train & then in a restaurant & on a busy London street & it really got to me. Much more so than seeing real people at the beach in summer.

I'm trying to keep my focus on life being MUCH better by spring/summer & just doing what it takes to get through this winter.

Cardiff has been in lockdown for about two weeks now.

I read yesterday that cases in some London boroughs (including BJs own constituency) now have higher Covid cases than Bolton's were when Bolton was locked down and all restaurants told to close. Yet no such restrictions in Hillingdon (if that article has its facts right).

I'm honestly struggling with how quickly they acted in locking down the north but are being very slow and close mouthed now that cases are just as high in London as they were in the north 3-4 weeks ago.

I really try not to buy into the vitriol scaremongering shite that the media write but at the moment it is difficult to not feel angry at the obvious difference in treatment.

I don't think the government are coming across as capable, dependable, knowledgeable or working to the country's best interests. They're drowning in their own shite and making things up as they go along.

I'm also pregnant and due in 8 weeks and so so so fucking sick of restrictions and rules and how much my experience of pregnancy has been affected. How is it democratic to make it illegal to see your family without it being put to vote?

[quote cathyandclare]@MJMG2015

I think that trying to control it in a population with such high numbers and so few symptoms is like King Canute trying to control the sea. We'd test them, while they were waiting for results they may see someone, by the time they go home the virus has spread.

Also they're adults. Many are in private rentals with mates, that they've paid for. How can we possibly enforce sending them home in a free society?[/quote]
Tight restrictions on isolation (yes, imperfect, but better than continuing with student parties)

Stick & carrot. Deadline to 'move home' & the Govt will pay for the flat until they deem it safe to return. Else no financial help if they choose to go home later. No leaving the area until the end of the Uni year (along with the same restrictions for other people).

There are ways to heavily encourage compliance.

I'm in the North and complying with the rules.
The students i see lined up outside bars and filling the streets at 10pm clearly aren't though over half the cases where i live are students.
Close the uni's, refund them some of their fee's/accommodation and do the whole thing online for the foreseeable future.

I'm from a fairly deprived pet of London but I now live in the North.

There are idiots everywhere, north and south.

Boris will like to protect the Capital's reputation, but hey that's what you get from an Etonian education,

I feel for my kids with the fall out of this in years to come.

@CooperLooper

I don't think the government are coming across as capable, dependable, knowledgeable or working to the country's best interests. They're drowning in their own shite and making things up as they go along

I don't think many would disagree.

Congratulations on your pregnancy 🌷

I'm really sorry that COVID has made it so difficult & not what one would expect 😢

However, we vote our Government in, to make these decisions. We can not vote on all decisions.

It's a particularly difficult time for you not to see your family, as it is for many, for lots of different reasons. But you have a lovely baby to look forward to & hopefully by spring/summer things will be much better.

I mainly support the idea of local lock-downs but the thing that gets me is that in the beginning it was London / the South that was the hotspot but the whole country was shut down. Now the North is the worst, only we have to shut down (I know I sound very 'that London' - I did used to live there though!). Why didn't they just lock-down London from the start?

I'm worried about the survival of our local businesses - there really needs to be support in place for them. The North could turn into chain-store hell otherwise.

*part of London

Depends how you look at it. I imagine there are people in non-lockdown areas thinking "what the hell are they doing?? Why aren't they doing anything to stop transmission where I am?!"

MJM it isn’t a chip and that’s devaluing the argument. I used to live in the south, of course there are areas of deprivation. But as PP said we were all locked down when the south was high, now it’s swathes of the North when there are areas that aren’t.

I know Cardiff is locked down but again that’s devolved administrations choice.