Londoners - what do we think will happen next week?

[jambeforecreamofcourse]

I read earlier that Sadiq Khan has said London will be treated as one. Cases are rising quite quickly but we are way way off Nottingham, Manchester etc.

I'm guessing Monday's announcement will say no mixing of households but hospitality will stay open. Can't remember where that fits into the tiers, maybe tier 2?

I'll be gutted if kids sport is postponed again

I'll be gutted if kids sport is postponed again so will I, it’s my job!
I think no mixing but everything else pretty much the same, maybe sport all outside again

I've just checked the tiers. Organised sport allowed under tier 2. That would be a huge help in managing my kid's MH.

Is that official or just on a newspaper site? If we’re forced to totally close again most kids sports providers will go out of business

@nancy75 a leaked government document reported in The Guardian last Sunday. Is yours an indoor sport?

I think Sadiq is like me. He wants to take action before it gets as bad as Manchester (or how it was for London in March/April) - to prevent it getting that bad (again).
I don't see why they'd stop children's outdoor sports. They're mixing in schools afterall, but who knows.

It’s tennis, so we can do both (although not ideal to be outside in the rain!) the place I work will probably be ok, we’re a pretty big provider with more than 1 club, the smaller clubs & indoor sports are going to collapse. None of these business make a fortune at the best of times, if we have to keep stopping & starting customers just won’t book.

Although I do agree we need to do something, our numbers have gone from 12 per 100k to 59 in just a few weeks

im just outsaide london but in the red alert list

will all red places be in different tiers or all the top one im not sure i get it

I don’t think there’s been official confirmation of what number gets you in the red list. The daily Mail has it at 50 per 100k but that seems very low (and it’s the daily Mail so means nothing)

Is there a link to the different tiers and red locations? I suspect we will be affected

@nancy75

I don’t think there’s been official confirmation of what number gets you in the red list. The daily Mail has it at 50 per 100k but that seems very low (and it’s the daily Mail so means nothing)

I saw this in the Daily mail and thought it was low, 50 would include half the country, I am in Northamptonshire but we probably have similar numbers to lots of London so watching, I imagine we will all end up in the middle tier, hopefully not the red one.

Apparently my London Borough are watching closely what happens over the next two weeks. I doubt Boris will announce lockdown on Monday but they will probably announce how it will work when they do as they are expecting it imminently.

Any by lockdown I mean the no mixing of households etc that has been happening elsewhere in the country.

I think they will wait until they announce how the traffic-light system will work - what the criteria are and what the level of lockdown will apply to each grade of infection.
I cant see them doing it on a borough by borough basis, it'll be all or nothing, and that will lead to some 'interesting' situations with towns just outside of Greater London being exempt whilst 10 million people literally down the road are told to stay at home.

On the BBC just now it said that they were speaking to the leaders in the north about the new measures, nothing about London or the Home Counties and I'm sure the Daily Mail was probably scaremongering with the red tier being 50 or over as other lists say below 100 green, above 100 amber and red was when it can't be controlled which makes me feel a bit more positive.

Sadiq Khan said on the news yesterday to expect restrictions in London next week. No specifics but I would imagine no mixing of households. I work in a London Borough and cases are rising so I'd rather they just did it tbh.

@WhentheDealGoesDown1

On the BBC just now it said that they were speaking to the leaders in the north about the new measures, nothing about London or the Home Counties and I'm sure the Daily Mail was probably scaremongering with the red tier being 50 or over as other lists say below 100 green, above 100 amber and red was when it can't be controlled which makes me feel a bit more positive.

thanks i read the list in the metro but prob the same-50 does seem low compared to over 100 in some places to have the same restriction

Hackney is being measured as Hackney and the City, bit annoying.

We have a glamping place booked for a short break during halfterm, I’m hoping we can still go.

I'm hoping hotels still open

Khan said that London would be treated as a whole (because so interlinked) so the numbers which matter will be those in the worst affected boroughs (I'm in a middling one)

I think there will be warnings about when we move through the tier system (restrictions increasing on leisure, and numbers mixing - birth individuals and number of households). And a move might follow swiftly.

I think there might be a ban on inter-regional travel (permission only for essentials) especially over the peak half term weeks, to prevent people mixing from all over the country.

Someone ought t make a proper announcement about whether shielding will resume, and if so for whom.

And if you are vulnerable, not exceptionally vulnerable, whether you should live one tier above the restriction level for the general population.

Whatever happened to the Nando's Scale, btw!

I think the rate is creeping up towards 100 in some London boroughs isn't it? And over 100 in Hackney and the City. But still low in most.

Numbers - including link to official source

metro.co.uk/2020/10/09/which-london-borough-highest-rate-covid-local-lockdown-coronavirus-13396150/

There has been some discussion about whether Richmond's rate is a true one, or if it has been skewed by students resident on campuses elsewhere who have not yet changed GP (so NHS still has them at parents address)

The tiers and restrictions haven’t been finalised yet, the draft that was leaked that all the papers refer to is dated 30 September so unlikely to be the final version.
What the daily Fail is referring to is the watchlist limits - where a borough got to 50/100k they were put in the red zone and additional support or intervention. Over 2/3 of English boroughs are now over 50 so that is highly unlikely to be the tier 3 trigger. FYI this is roughly how England breaks down pe:
Over 300 - 25 boroughs
200-300 - 25 boroughs
100-200 - 50 boroughs
50-100 - 125 boroughs
Below 50 - 90 boroughs

I have seen on the BBC that 100/100k would be the trigger for tier 2, but haven’t seen what the trigger would be for tier 3. All draft and unconfirmed though until Monday!

I work and live in boroughs that are over 80 and rising.

That's interesting, SquirmOfEels. Both my DC kept their home address and GP when they went to university.