Londoners - what do we think will happen next week?

[jambeforecreamofcourse]

I read earlier that Sadiq Khan has said London will be treated as one. Cases are rising quite quickly but we are way way off Nottingham, Manchester etc.

I'm guessing Monday's announcement will say no mixing of households but hospitality will stay open. Can't remember where that fits into the tiers, maybe tier 2?

I'll be gutted if kids sport is postponed again

That’s from this link which my local council updates every day
trafforddatalab.shinyapps.io/covid-19/

Wish they wouldn't leak these things and make suggestions I'd rather it was kept quiet until needed!

Wish they wouldn't leak these things absolutely, we read all this stuff about what might happen but we’re actually none the wiser. I wish they would just make decisions & announce them properly.
All of this stuff just causes everyone to panic when we probably don’t need to.
The whole of London lockdown approach will be interesting, in my area it’s already thrown up the are we London/are we kent debate & I’m sure people in Croydon will be arguing they are in Surrey for the purpose of lockdown rules!

Nancy75 I work in the Kent London debate area, but live very firmly in Kent. Interesting as an area like biggin hill would be subject to a local lock down based on London but doesn't have any where near the travel links like other areas. I work all across Bromley and bexley boroughs but I know Bromley cases are rising and as an nhs provider I wander will at have to stop our restart of services?

@nancy75 People can argue about semantics, history, vague notions of postal towns and "feel" as much as they want - Areas like Kingston, Richmond, Bromley, Beckenham are London boroughs (and are no longer part of Surrey or Kent) and have been since 1965. The residents elect members to the GLA and vote for the mayor of London.

cheninblanc yes I’m in Beckenham, Bromley numbers are 59 I think this week which is a big jump as we’ve been the lowest/2nd lowest borough for ages. Our local Facebook pages are a hoot - lots of people proclaiming their postal address is kent & not London so they won’t be doing london rules!
It would be frustrating if you lived in Biggin Hill or some of the other more countrified parts of the borough but there’s no other way of managing it.

I'm in Tower Hamlets and our local mayor has already asked us not to visit other households, although can't be officially enforced.
I don't know what difference anything will make while people have to use the tube and kids are in school.

Rosehip10 I don’t disagree, but if you went on a local Facebook page & said that residents would be sharpening their pitch forks!

@nancy75 when Leeds went into local restrictions they simply said if your bins are collected by Leeds City Council you are covered by them. So I suspect all outer London boroughs like Bromley and Croydon will need to say this to shut people down.

There are areas which are covered by 1 or 2 London boroughs and an outer London borough so on some parts of the area and even the same road, people will be under restrictions and others won't be. I suspect it's a case of don't piss off your neighbours otherwise they will report you.

I do agree that is needs to be a Borough wide approach it's just interesting as some areas have quite poor links to London but then again we do need to manage the cases. I would not like to be making the decisions I know that much!

@nancy75 It is one of these things attract passions for some reasons, let alone with the current situation. When London and surrounding areas local government was reorganised in the 60s some areas petitioned really hard to "not become part of London" and succeeded - Epsom area being an example, which lead to the situation only changed in 2000 that the Met police operated in Epsom, not surrey police, even though it was and is in Surrey.

The edge of boroughs is the reason they have to do all or none, my friend lives in Lewisham, the shop at the end of her road (6 houses away) is Bromley. If you lockdown by borough people won’t be able to walk on the opposite side of their road or go to their local shop!

London restrictions will be defined on a whole London basis - if you did it by borough, there would be confusion (some genuine, some as in, "confused" so not complying) and the amount of movement between boroughs for so many reasons would make it pointless. Of course on the edge of London there may be different restrictions between the outer borough and the adjoining county council area.

Another thing I've considered is will they stop us mixing in any setting. Because typically I will go to London and meet friends for drinks, travel on the tube and main train but only stick in my 6. As a general rule I wouldn't go to a friends house we'd always meet City center in the pub. So for me restricting visiting houses won't make any difference as I can still meet 6 friends and travel. Would they be better stopping mixing in any setting or essential travel only?

@cheninblanc Depends on tier? If hospitality is essentially closed, then travel does just become mainly for work or education. Though there are tourists about!

Rosehip - yes these tiers, they are being leaked deliberately and it's caused more concern. Look at Manchester last night it was rammed!

My DH runs a pub, he said last night & tonight are the busiest they’ve been (they only allow pre booked - no walk ins) general consensus from their customers seems to be go out while you can. To offset him coming into contact with so many people I’ve become a hermit!

Khan said that London would be treated as a whole (because so interlinked)

That has to be right

They need to sort out the results from the testing and interpret those properly.

Many are only attributed to London because students testing positive are still registered with a GP at their home addresses.

ChardonnaysPetDragon
That’s definitely an interesting point, we don’t have a uni population in Bromley but obviously a lot of kids move from here to go to uni. The big rise in numbers is a bit of a surprise here - the trains in to central London are empty & we don’t have the tube, I don’t know anyone that has gone back to commuting to the office. I wonder if uni kids living somewhere else has skewed the figures?

@nancy75

ChardonnaysPetDragon That’s definitely an interesting point, we don’t have a uni population in Bromley but obviously a lot of kids move from here to go to uni. The big rise in numbers is a bit of a surprise here - the trains in to central London are empty & we don’t have the tube, I don’t know anyone that has gone back to commuting to the office. I wonder if uni kids living somewhere else has skewed the figures?

I have friends in Bromley. First, it's a huge concern that figures are rising there. Bromley has, I believe, the largest elderly population in London.

Secondly, whilst it's not like it used to be trains aren't empty. Depends what time you're travelling perhaps or what part of the borough you're in.

My friends are near the centre with Bromley South as their station. They work in healthcare and a school.

Lots of other people there don't work from home either. Their neighbours include a builder, a plumber, and a social worker. All worked out of the home throughout the lockdown.

There are delivery drivers, shop, bar, restaurant, pub, and pharmacy workers, schools, GP surgeries, hospital and social care workers. Lots out and about - many travelling on public transport (across boroughs) into central London for work.

It's worth noting that a city like London is a virus's wet dream. Large population with many in high density housing. That's millions of potential victims. The more people and more close together they are, the quicker and easier the spread. What seems like a low number of cases now has the potential to spread far more rapidly and to many more people than a higher number of cases in a more rural and/or smaller (population size) area.

As for Richmond. It's worth considering its close proximity to Heathrow airport.

Tbh if they're doing a London wide lockdown I actually think they'd be better off implementing it inside the M25. You'd at least have a clear demarcation; as another poster cited above you could walk down the road and be in a non-London borough - we can certainly walk to Tandridge from where we are which is a Surrey borough and therefore wouldn't be included.

@LBOCS2

Tbh if they're doing a London wide lockdown I actually think they'd be better off implementing it inside the M25. You'd at least have a clear demarcation; as another poster cited above you could walk down the road and be in a non-London borough - we can certainly walk to Tandridge from where we are which is a Surrey borough and therefore wouldn't be included.

Personally I think a coherent national approach is best. Lots of different rules for various regions is confusing, divisive, and breeds resentment (both from people who want preventative proactive containment measures and others who want to let Covid 'rip through').

You're right. People live, work, and shop across regions. And viruses certainly don't care about made-up by humans land boundaries.

That said, any kind of lockdown - particularly London or within the M25 only - would be pointless hardship unless the borders were restricted (with proper quarantine for essential travel like imports).