Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Does anyone know anything about Elmbridge, Surrey?

According to the Surrey CC Coronavirus updates, these are the rates per 100,000 for the last 7 days up to the date given below:

21/8 13.9
28/8 17.5
4/9 17.5
11/9 16.8
18/9 10.2
25/9 19.0
2/10 79.0

And, according to CovidMessenger, the rate to 5/10 is now 122.8. Whilst not as high as many places in “The North”, it is now 77th highest in the country and out of step with most of the South.

It appears to be massively shooting up over the last week or two. The Arcgis map doesn’t show any hotspots- cases seem to be evenly distributed.

I wondered if anyone has read anything about this? The council and borough websites don’t mention this sudden spike.

In terms of checking for testing, there is something. I'm known as (for example...) Daphne Motorina, but my birth certificate is Velma Motorina. I completed the form as Daphne, and it wouldn't let me have a home test, as I failed the identity check. It would let me have a drive in test, where ID could be checked (but wasn't).

This was back in August, and it may have changed, but there was at least some checking then.

Elmbridge would be pretty much exactly like Richmond, no university accommodation of its own, but a very high percentage of school leavers going to university.

Without that, I think you'd need an identified outbreak, it's not the sort of borough to have rapid spread otherwise - the parts barely mix with each other.

Sadly the data on 18+ destinations by borough only includes state funded students, which is rather limiting when Richmond etc. have a much higher proportion of private students, such that Richmond had very low numbers of students leaving 16-18 education

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/destinations-of-ks4-and-16-to-18-ks5-students-2018

But it does show quite a higher proportion of students doing level 4 courses compared to other areas - so yes if a proportion of all students were going back to their home address, then the wealthier boroughs would be disproportionately impacted. The other boroughs in the area with similar demographics I think all have pretty extensive student accommodation of their own, with the exception of Elmbridge (although they have a lot just over the border)

The only thing I wondered is that it does ask for NHS number so that could be used, but that’s an optional field and I can’t imagine many students know theirs off by heart!

It may be unusual, but when dd went off to uni she has, on her phone, a list of numbers like that, so that if she needs them in a hurry she has it. I know her NHS one was one of the numbers she put on it, although that was partially because she may need it if she needs a GP when up there because she's stayed registered down here.

Gupta is on lbc now. She is everywhere!

I can't speak for Elmbridge but live close by in Epsom & Ewell. According to the Zoe App about three weeks ago numbers rose quickly from 8 to 132. Over the last few days they fallen back to 80.

City of Manchester:

Sunday 27 September to Saturday 3 October 2020
The most up-to-date and complete information we have is for Sunday 27 September to Saturday 3 October. In this period there were:

3,105 people with a newly confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 living in Manchester (a rate of 561.6 per 100,000 population). In the previous 7 day period there were 1,440 people with a newly confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 living in Manchester (a rate of 260.5 per 100,000)
19,878 tests conducted in non-NHS laboratories (Pillar 2 Tests) - a rate of 3,595 tests per 100,000 population. In the previous week, 15,596 tests were conducted – a rate of 2,821 per 100,000 population.
Of the 19,878 tests conducted, 22.9% resulted in a positive diagnosis. This compares with 14.2% of tests conducted in the previous weeks.

In the week ending 25 September, there were 4 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in Manchester. Overall, 436 Manchester residents have died from conditions involving COVID-19.

So City of Manchester is at about the same positivity level as Liverpool, but has a much more significant and sharp increase (Note: Liverpool's latest figure included data up to the 6th rather that 3rd October)

That suggests there is a fair chance the City of Manchester's postivity rate will overtake Liverpool's this week.

That suggests there is a fair chance the City of Manchester's postivity rate will overtake Liverpool's this week.

I am only next door! 😢

I'd like to congratulate Hartlepool on being the only council who have no mention of coronavirus on their home page.

Everyone else has a Big Shiny Icon or at least a dedicated covid section pointing everyone in the right direction. Hartlepool. Nothing. Its like covid-19 doesn't exist in Hartlepool.

Then when I search for coronavirus, the top result has 141% relevance... facepalm

The council should quite honestly be ashamed.

County Durham - 14 day positivity rate* = 13.1%
Darlington - 14 day positivity rate* = 12.2%

(Note compiling the figures this way, given the trend elsewhere would probably suggest that if you want to compare like for like this figure is lower than it would be for a 7 day rate).

Bradford
The following figures are from 23 to 29 September 2020:

Positivity 13.8% (previous 10.2%)

@RedToothBrush
There are whole countries like this: www.kormany.hu/en
Hungary has press releases, but no link to any actual data.
Even I found it hard to find their dashboard and I speak hungarian....

We moan and groan about data here, but I tried to find similar granular data so I can help out my parents with info and it's non-existent to the public :(

Op-ed from Jon "Claude" Van Tam:
www.gov.uk/government/news/deputy-chief-medical-officer-professor-jonathan-van-tams-op-ed

Excellent op-ed that hits the right note, but a sobering outline of the situation:

"ONS data show that an estimated 224,000 people have the virus – up from 116,000 last week,
hospital admissions for Covid-19 are rising again, as are intensive care admissions.*

ONS data show that an estimated 224,000 people have the virus – up from 116,000 last week
That's approaching double.

Excellent op-ed that hits the right note

Again, I don't get that at all, it starts right with:
People point out that we must not lose sight of the indirect harms of Covid-19 They are absolutely right

But then rather than talking about indirect harms, only talks about health care:
We need to keep elective surgeries and non-urgent services open for as long as we can; we need to keep cancer treatment and diagnostic services going; and we need to continue to provide mental health services

It's another message that fails to talk to the people who need to be talked to - those who rarely need medical care and generally feel invincible anyway. Even as purely a medical remit, he should be talking about the reductions in physical health that came with lockdown. It's just a another talk to the converted, scare the scared that does nothing to resonate with others I'd say.

The message I receive from it is that we are dealing with a greater known and have in place many many mechanisms to prevent a spread similar to that in February/March.

I have tried to be calm, collected, resilient and pragmatic throughout this entire shit show but today, for some reason, I'm starting to feel as though I'm losing it a bit.

I check in on this thread and a few others because I have to try and keep one step ahead running my non-essential shop, my DP is in a close contact profession and since being allowed back to work it is fortunate that we have managed to keep body and soul together, just about, for which I am of course appropriately grateful.

I live in the BCP area which is showing up today as a red hotspot according to some news reports and charts etc. Is it because of Uni students? Pubs and bars? General mixing? The trouble is no matter how hard one tries, any face to face contact seems to be a risk. My shop is a quirky niche place and we've had an uptick in students because there's precious little of interest in the area retail wise. We're following all the rules to the letter. People I know are now posting they have had positive tests on FB - I haven't seen them in person but they are local and we all circulate on the same scene as it were.

I've managed not to be "paranoid" up to now, rather more "aware" as instructed.

It's my Dad's 81st birthday on Tuesday. I have arranged to visit him and my 78 y/o DSM and am now terrified that I shouldn't but then there is all this stuff about new restrictions coming in.

I'm honestly losing the plot a bit here - can anyone, looking at the data so far, give me an idea of what is likely to happen - which I know is like asking for the moon right now - have been watching Sky News and checking the Guardian feed and it's all "wait for tomorrow". I hate the uncertainty.

to everyone, sorry for any potential de-rail but didn't want to start a whole thread if someone can say "get a grip" here in relation to what's actually happening.

@OldQueen1969. Keeping matters in line with data only discussions, if you don't already have it, I suggest you download the Zoe App. Tim Spector's latest recording message based on the data and projected growth is both heartening and encouraging. He deserved his gong imo.

Thank you @OhTheRoses - I shall have a look at that x Really sorry for butting in - it is hard data that comforts me so I appreciate that.

Musing a few things I have been reading all about the potential plans for tomorrow onwards and note no reference to shielding making a return? Has this just been knocked on the head, like other things?

If the government plan to keep workplaces and education running , surely those who are clinically deserve some choice and protection? I have a year 11 student who has not been back since lockdown and I am so worried abut her.

clinically vulnerable

But then rather than talking about indirect harms, only talks about health care:
We need to keep elective surgeries and non-urgent services open for as long as we can; we need to keep cancer treatment and diagnostic services going; and we need to continue to provide mental health services

Yes, but this is the medical officer talking. He's sensibly keeping it to his expertise, not trying to talk about other issues.

I think it's reasonably sensible. He's saying we know more than last Spring, but it's also more dangerous now because we're going into winter, not trying to hold it back until summer.

I do agree though that sceptics and people who are saying "open whatever" won't take anything away from it though.

Re: the Zoe app: is there any suggestion that the numbers are declining in certain areas because people just aren't logging symptoms any more? Does anyone know?
I just find it weird that in Cornwall cases are actually declining and it's the only place in the UK where that's happening. There is no physical reason why it should be so.