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Covid

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Why is China not seeing an increase in cases?

213 replies

ProseccoSupernova · 08/10/2020 18:12

Or are they not just recording it?

OP posts:
stillfeelingmad · 09/10/2020 08:49

I have a close friend who's just gone back to work over there. He was strictly quarantined and checked up on regularly. The rules are vigorously enforced over there and what ever else is undoubtedly wrong with that regime it's very effective for stuff like this. The test trace and track is also very efficient and mandatory

HelloMissus · 09/10/2020 08:52

There are also strict rules of how to deal with positive cases and those in contact - strict quarantine.
No leaving the building.
If you have caring responsibilities for others too bad.
If you have a medical appointment too bad.
Etc etc

Ginfordinner · 09/10/2020 09:09

As well as the above are we generally a less healthy nation?

So many people have underlying health conditions - diabetes, asthma, recovering from cancer, other immunocompressed conditions. Then the percentage of obese people. Would people with those health conditions get past childhood in less developed countries?

PopsicleHustler · 09/10/2020 09:10

Here here @HeyMacarona absolutely agree

AKissAndASmile · 09/10/2020 09:11

I don't much listen to the news but last night The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany were having a rise in cases, some as serious as ours, and Paris is in lockdown I think.

Well exactly. We could see the second wave starting in France etc and so had ample warning, but we're different so it won't happen to us, eh?

AKissAndASmile · 09/10/2020 09:15

Remember Jenny Harries saying in one of the briefings that the WHO's advice to 'test test test' doesn't apply to a developed nation like ours? Exceptionalism again. Well that aged well.

Straven123 · 09/10/2020 09:22

Well exactly. We could see the second wave starting in France etc and so had ample warning, but we're different so it won't happen to us, eh?

Obviously therefore The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany ALSO thought it wouldn't happen to them but let's just flagellate that terrible country the UK.

IloveJKRowling · 09/10/2020 09:25

DH works with a number of Chinese colleagues. They wear masks, all the time they're out of their own house. They take the virus seriously and strictly SD. They're basically better at doing the things that prevent virus spread.

They think we're insane having schools back without SD and masks.

I can believe their economy is booming and they are pretty much back to normal. We'd do better to follow China's lead, but we're too stupid.

Oliversmumsarmy · 09/10/2020 09:26

LangClegsInSpace

Population of UK: ~66.7M
Population of London: ~9M
UK coronavirus deaths: ~42.6K

Population of Nigeria: ~196M
Population of Lagos: ~21M
Nigeria coronavirus deaths: ~1K

UK deaths per million: 627
Nigeria deaths per million: 5

It's very clear which of these countries is doing better, even accounting for reporting discrepancies

Yes, Nigeria has a much younger population, yes there is under-reporting of cases and deaths (as there is in the UK) but seroprevalence studies show that across African countries around 10% of the population has been exposed to the virus - same as Europe

If you agree that Nigeria has a much younger population then why are you saying they did so much better.

Average life expectancy in Nigeria is just short of 54 years old

Take out all those over the age of 54 from the UK death rate and you will probably find it is quite similar.
85% of the UK deaths are from those aged 65 or older alone

Also you can’t really compare Nigeria to the UK
It is a hot country. People are outside.
Like when pubs opened up in the summer there wasn’t a huge spike in cases as people were outside.

I wonder if it rained and was cold and you had to stay indoors for weeks on end how Nigeria’s figures would look then.

Also Nigeria might have a population of 196 million but it’s population density is less that that of the UK.

ScaramoucheFandango · 09/10/2020 09:27

I don't want to flagellate the UK. But we are a bit dim.

PaperScissorsRock · 09/10/2020 09:29

China’s authoritarian lockdown almost certainly helped them.
There will be so much we don’t know because they withhold information and lie, but on the face of it their approach has worked.

As a direct contrast the U.K. could see this coming from the end of December. There is no excuse for the sloppy way they’ve handled this. IMO in a pandemic we should be learning from each other, looking at what is working and what isn’t, but oh no, some leader’s egos are far too big.

Even now people are arguing about masks, how coronavirus is less severe than flu, believing bonkers conspiracy theories - lockdown and masks are a plot to take away our human rights, when those things are only being mandated because people aren’t complying. If we all pulled together, had a decent leader who stopped waffling and covering up for his arrogant colleagues, was straight up about what’s going on and what can be done, instead of this infernal fudging of numbers and eternal spin, we might be in a better position right now.

MarshaBradyo · 09/10/2020 09:33

@turquoise50

They have an app which was up and running by April. Everyone had to download it - and they use their phones there for everything, including paying in almost all shops now, so it was a case of no Covid app, then no food, no entry to public buildings or transport, nothing. In fact in most places you wouldn't even have been allowed out of your apartment block without it. Add to this the fact that mask-wearing is very common and accepted there anyway, but it was made absolutely compulsory once lockdown was partially lifted. It's not mandatory any more, as far as I know, but a lot of people will still wear one voluntarily.

Also they closed the borders, and they've remained closed except for absolutely essential reasons eg medical personnel travelling internationally. I have an American friend who normally lives in China but who 'evacuated' back to the States in February (something he now deeply regrets!) and still can't get back. All his belongings and furniture are stuck in China and his visa has lapsed. Meanwhile there's no work for him in the US (which is why he moved to China in the first place). He doesn't know what to do.

But life in China has been back to more or less normal (albeit with the app, and a very strictly enforced quarantine system for those needing to self isolate) since really very early on - late April or early May. What you need to understand about China though is that people don't travel around the country much, apart from three times a year: once at Chinese New Year (which was largely the reason the virus first spread when it did, as fast as it did), once normally at the 'Tomb Sweeping Festival' but that's on April 4th/5th so I’m guessing that got cancelled this year. And the third time is during the National Week which is the first week of October.

If you look at any pictures taken over the past week or so (and I see a lot of them, mostly from westerners who live there) you will see that the movement of people around China this last week has been immense, even if it's slightly down on normal years. So what happens over the next two weeks in terms of infection rates will be crucial and very interesting to see.

This bit closed borders with quarantine is the key after it’s eliminated.

So they squashed it with hard lockdown then do quarantine:

It doesn’t surprise me why there’s no second wave. Not sure why people expect it

Oliversmumsarmy · 09/10/2020 09:38

*Seems strange that it started there and while the rest of the world is on its knees they are sitting pretty....

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that they took fast decisive action? Also, the rest of the world is not 'on its knees*

Pity they didn’t tell the rest of the world. Instead told the WHO that it hadn’t left China on 23rd January 2020
Truth is only coming out now that people had it even here in the UK in December and could have been around since September 2019.

I wonder what the death rate was in China from the effects of quarantining and the people who starved to death or died in their apartments who are yet to be discovered or just those that disappeared or those that couldn’t access hospital or doctors for other treatable ailments because they were locked in.

I don’t think we will ever know the true figure.

We just can guess that what is published isn’t showing the whole story

ScaramoucheFandango · 09/10/2020 09:42

Well if not "on its knees" the rest of the world comes out if this weaker and China stronger.

MarshaBradyo · 09/10/2020 09:51

I’m not surprised if they are booming. Chinese tourists being a lot of wealth through travel to other countries so if this is now spent in China.

Plus if SD is removed you can operate sectors as normal.

IloveJKRowling · 09/10/2020 09:56

Several Chinese customers for DH's work are now refusing to come to UK as coronavirus rates too high here (can't say I blame them). So, they are presumably spending their money in China instead.

They may well find that there are equally qualified people there to deliver what they want and it could well be a permanent change - I suppose time will tell.

MissMarplesGlove · 09/10/2020 10:18

They test trace and isolate, and it is all compulsory.

This.

I have colleagues in Wuhan. They report that life is pretty much back to normal, but local authorities keep an extremely close eye on outbreaks.

I tend to have a lot of sympathy for their critique of the lack of safety and concern for the health of the population here in the UK.

Ginfordinner · 09/10/2020 10:54

You only need to read some of the other coronavirus threads on here to know that far too many people think that the rules don't apply to them. I think it is unfair to just blame students. People from all walks of life think that they are above the law.

Straven123 · 09/10/2020 10:54

Even now people are arguing about masks, how coronavirus is less severe than flu, believing bonkers conspiracy theories - lockdown and masks are a plot to take away our human rights, when those things are only being mandated because people aren’t complying. If we all pulled together, had a decent leader who stopped waffling and covering up for his arrogant colleagues

Much of the above is due to the spouting of social media bollox - best thing that could happen in the UK is banning FB etc like China has done and controlling it in country.

Of course everyone would be happy with that here Grin Grin - 'We should follow China's lead' after all

Ginfordinner · 09/10/2020 11:00

And stupid people are still only wearing masks over their mouths. I was in M & S yesterday, and felt so tempted to challenge a woman who was doing this. I wanted to say "if you can't wear a mask over your nose just don't bother wearing one at all".

I didn't of course because I am not confrontational.

cinammonbuns · 09/10/2020 11:38

The amount of stupidity on this thread makes my head hurt. If people don’t know anything about African countries they should learn or shut up before they embarrass themselves.

yeOldeTrout · 09/10/2020 12:05

I wonder when China will start to provide broader high occupational safety for its citizens.

StandWitch · 09/10/2020 12:38

It's a different culture where everyone obeys the rules. Across Asia, mask wearing is normal. Nobody moans about it. Here in the West many see it as an attack on individual freedom.

This is bollocks, I live in Asia and people don't wear masks, and rule-breaking is de rigeur, far more so than the UK.

So you don't hear the press talking about the $1 ten minute covid tests Senegal developed months ago or the countries where life has managed to go on relatively unscathed.

ORLY

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-54388340

"4 days ago"

Dr Sall says the manufacturing of the antibody test has already begun and they should be released in the coming weeks.

It will work like a pregnancy test, costing close to $1 (£.80) with results in just 10 minutes.

The home test that will show if someone currently has coronavirus has been delayed and is now being validated by the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, but there are hopes it will still be out before the end of the year.

So it doesn't exist yet.

This is the question western countries should be asking, but due to racism, exceptionalism and arrogance that Asian and African countries can't possibly know what they're doing they instead compare their 'success' to other failures such as Sweden and the USA.

Exceptionalism is valid. Where I lived the covid-19 response is an absolute shitshow hamstrung by stone-age religious loons, lack of enforcement: none of the local clinic staff have been tested for covid, dead bodies from covid are dug up due to fear among the population. Positive cases don't include most of the tests, because antibody tests are used as the first line of testing, not actual virus tests.

When I have had to try to get people under national health into vaguely modern hospitals they are full for months on end, and now with covid it's far worse.

The fact is when the annual HIV deaths each and every year in South Africa are more than double total UK covid deaths, or the annual malaria deaths in many African countries, then covid-19 just doesn't pose the same kind of health challenge as existing diseases in those countries.

The fact is death and case statistics are not comparable between developing countries and the UK, which is one thing, but another is that it doesn't even present the same health challenge to a developed country as to a developing one. Covid-19 is almost uniquely good at attacking rich developed countries, in that the average covid-19 death is OLDER than the average age of death. Risk of death grows exponentially with age; the median age of South Africans is 26 - the UK is 40. If you have a young population than the risk due to covid-19 is exponentially smaller than with an aged population.

The second reason for exceptionalism here is that covid-19 poses a particular risk to countries with adequate healthcare to start with - where I am people die at home and are buried by their families within 24 hours. Covid is here, people are spreading it by engaging in karaoke, religious activities, activities like land trains with 100 people in, etc., almost entirely without masks, there is no abatement, no magic $1 test, or $0.50 medical treatment, but it just isn't posing an existential threat.

Covid attacks old, rich countries, and it fucks up the comfortable notion that they have medical care from cradle to grave at all times, by filling hospitals with wheezing old men. This notion is not present for most of the world to start with, so covid doesn't threaten what never existed.

Of course not every country is as young as South Africa, though few have a European population pyramid. That's not to say that some lower income countries have not done very well - it seems that for example Vietnam has had an effective approach, but the alternative shitshow incompetent approach of Indonesia or the Philippines doesn't seem to be causing those countries the same kind of terror that it does for the UK.

The exceptionalism seems to be that, because covid WILL fuck up the health care systems and kill the elderly of Western countries, that developing countries should be so concerned as they are. On the whole, for developing countries without significant tourism industries, it seems extremely unlikely that covid poses as big a health threat as many other existing diseases. So why not go on with life? That's happening here, covid-management is minimal and life is going on, excluding those who've died from covid of course. But then when, say, the annual road deaths of young, healthy people in Thailand is many times the total of UK deaths of people under 65 from covid-19, and yet Thailand (and most of the rest of SE Asia) lives with this mass carnage with a shrug, it's not obvious that Thailand's covid shut-down was particularly rational. I mean it doesn't seem logical that my neighbours would have their children wear masks against covid, when those same children aged 12 and 13 drive motorbikes to school, with no helmet, and some of them will die as a result.

Covid poses a threat to the hygienic risk-free, die-when-you-are-90 Western approach to life. It's nothing like the same risk to countries when there are more day-to-day concerns of adequate nutrition, and where life expectancy may be a decade or several short of the UK.

(I have no idea about China specifically, as per the OP, but the generalizations in this thread about 'Asia' and 'Africa' seemed particularly foolish.)

Oaktree55 · 09/10/2020 12:59

They get small outbreaks but stamp it out immediately by testing everyone!!!! The latest outbreak of about 50 cases linked to that fish market they tested 11million people in 7 days.

If our Government did that we wouldn’t have any cases either!

MissMarplesGlove · 09/10/2020 13:04

I don't want to flagellate the UK. But we are a bit dim.

Yes to both statements!

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