Is a vaccine imminent?

[Forgetmenot157]

Last few days there are lots of stories about a vaccine being ready to go by November. Stories about huge vaccination stations with doctors, vets, dentists etc ready to give out the vaccine, and even the head of the Who suggesting it will be ready to go in a few weeks....

Do they know More than they are letting on? At the moment I couldn't care less if it won't be the most effective vaccine long as it means a quicker return to normality. Plus I think people being able to see the finish line will motivate most for one last push to surpress the virus befor enough are vaccinated.

I’ve just been enrolled into a vaccine trial in a group of 500, first assessment next week. The trial takes place over a 56 week period which sort of suggests that we’re some way off having a vaccine generally available, even accepting that some teams are ahead of others.

There are something like 30 in phase 3. Why would you being enrolled in one of the on that timescale have anything to do with the other 29, which might be way ahead or way behind?

We have no idea how effective any of the prospective vaccine are. We should definitely be researching new vaccines as long as we don't have one that is known to be very effective and completely safe.

I think I'm right in saying we have different versions of the flu vaccine too that are widely used. It's not a bad thing to be starting on a trial and this moment in time and for length of time specified. It should be seen as a positive, the more options for potential vaccines we have the better for everyone. I'm sure we'll have multiple Covid vaccines being used soon enough once approvals start coming through.

What about the Pfizer vaccine? That's supposed to be close last I heard!

What we can be relatively more confident about is that by the end of the year, the vaccines that are currently in Phase 3 trials will probably have gathered enough data (as in, trial volunteers getting covid) to say whether it looks like the vaccine is working or not

Aren't vaccine phase 3 trials normally 3 to 6 years long? Presumably there is a reason they are so long and they don't spend years messing about for the fun of it.

Pessimistically, i don't think a vaccine will be available and approved for 2 years plus, i hope very much i am wrong.

The reason most trials are so long is that it takes a really long time for enough people in the trial to catch the thing that you are trying to vaccinate against so that you can prove the vaccine works.

In an epidemic that is obviously less of a problem because lots of people will catch the illness you are trying to vaccinate against quite quickly.

One of the things that slowed the Oxford trial down slightly was the massive drop in infection levels in the U.K. over the summer. Whilst the rising numbers now are obviously not what we would want to see they may actually speed up the vaccine trials.

It’s pretty clear that a massive project is well underway to organise the manufacture, distribution and administration of vaccines to tens of millions of people in the UK.

The government wouldn’t be investing vast resources in this if they weren’t very confident that the vaccine trials are going well.

Big Pharma are going to kick this nasty little virus’s arse. We just need to be patient for a while longer.

@Sunshinegirl82

The reason most trials are so long is that it takes a really long time for enough people in the trial to catch the thing that you are trying to vaccinate against so that you can prove the vaccine works.

In an epidemic that is obviously less of a problem because lots of people will catch the illness you are trying to vaccinate against quite quickly.

One of the things that slowed the Oxford trial down slightly was the massive drop in infection levels in the U.K. over the summer. Whilst the rising numbers now are obviously not what we would want to see they may actually speed up the vaccine trials.

Also, I believe, they normally take a long time to set up, recruit participants and get funding etc. With Covid plenty of people have volunteered. Lots of research projects etc you have to tender to get funding but apparently the funding has come very fast.

I'd forgotten about the rumour about the Queen's death. I was genuinely upset about it, despite not really thinking I was much of a Royalist.

Both Johnson and Whitty said “science WILL ride to the rescue” (exact words). The vaccine must surely be progressing or they wouldn’t say it so vehemently. (Would they?! Boris might, Chris I see as more trustworThy and he said it first)

Both Johnson and Whitty said “science WILL ride to the rescue” (exact words). The vaccine must surely be progressing or they wouldn’t say it so vehemently. (Would they?! Boris might, Chris I see as more trustworThy and he said it first)

The question is how fast is the horse and what happens once it arrives. Science is already helping of course. You are less likely to die now if you get covid than you were in March. But whether we will ever have a very effective vaccine is just not known at present. Maybe there will be a vaccine that works for 20% of the time, has some nasty side effects and needs changing every year. We just don’t know.

@notevenat20

Both Johnson and Whitty said “science WILL ride to the rescue” (exact words). The vaccine must surely be progressing or they wouldn’t say it so vehemently. (Would they?! Boris might, Chris I see as more trustworThy and he said it first)

The question is how fast is the horse and what happens once it arrives. Science is already helping of course. You are less likely to die now if you get covid than you were in March. But whether we will ever have a very effective vaccine is just not known at present. Maybe there will be a vaccine that works for 20% of the time, has some nasty side effects and needs changing every year. We just don’t know.

Or maybe we'll have a safe and efficient vaccine quite soon, as many actual experts are predicting, and however disappointing that might be for you.

Or maybe we'll have a safe and efficient vaccine quite soon, as many actual experts are predicting, and however disappointing that might be for you.

The last part you wrote is very odd.

Yes there might be a safe and effective vaccine this year which would indeed be awesome.

I’d love there to be a vaccine soon.

@JosephineDeBeauharnais just because you're enrolled in a phase 3 trial (which I am very grateful for by the way!) that takes 56 weeks, that doesn't mean we are a long way off. They may need several vaccines. I think we will have one this year, with rolling out into the new year.

There are lots of different vaccine trials too. Mine is 12 months.

@notevenat20

Both Johnson and Whitty said “science WILL ride to the rescue” (exact words). The vaccine must surely be progressing or they wouldn’t say it so vehemently. (Would they?! Boris might, Chris I see as more trustworThy and he said it first)

The question is how fast is the horse and what happens once it arrives. Science is already helping of course. You are less likely to die now if you get covid than you were in March. But whether we will ever have a very effective vaccine is just not known at present. Maybe there will be a vaccine that works for 20% of the time, has some nasty side effects and needs changing every year. We just don’t know.

I thought the efficacy had to be higher than 20% for a vaccine to be approved.

👍🏽

As much as i want a vaccine, i just do not see how efficacy and safety can be proven in just a few months.

Haven't drugs companies asked to be exempt from any claims liability?

All the protocols made public so far require 50% efficacy, this is also the minimum requirement for FDA approval (US).

@jasjas1973 but it isn't a few months? We are in October now. Weren't vaccines being looked at since last year? Plus the Oxford one was an existing vaccine. So that isn't rushed, just the efficiency we need to know which is being trialled.

From a longer Zeit interview with virologist Christian Drosten of Charité University Hospital, Berlin.

ZEIT ONLINE: Regarding a vaccine. Do you still anticipate seeing one or more of them on the market in the course of the next year?

Drosten: Yes, but a distinction has to be made between "approved" and "on the market." The first vaccines may even be approved by the end of the year. But the question is how many people you can inoculate. At first it won’t be that many. That’s why people with a risk of severe illness as well as health workers are likely to get vaccinated first.

ZEIT ONLINE: Many experts believe that the first-generation vaccines are unlikely to protect against infection. Do you agree?

Drosten: They are more likely to protect against a severe form of the disease than against the infection itself. However, data from experiments with primates also suggests that vaccination reduces the viral load in the throat (for example: New England Journal of Medicine: Corbett et al., 2020). So, I doubt that the virus will spread unhindered under the cover of the vaccination. I also expect that the not-so-great first-generation vaccines will play their part in helping to control the pandemic. If you have enough of them.

ZEIT ONLINE: That won’t be the case at first. How should we imagine this transitional period?

Drosten: There will be a juxtaposition next year. We will have different vaccines, which may even have differing efficacy, and parts of the population will be vaccinated with them. At the same time, contact restrictions and the basic hygiene rules will still be important.
www.zeit.de/wissen/2020-10/christian-drosten-coronavirus-infection-winter-virologist/komplettansicht

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]From a longer Zeit interview with virologist Christian Drosten of Charité University Hospital, Berlin.

ZEIT ONLINE: Regarding a vaccine. Do you still anticipate seeing one or more of them on the market in the course of the next year?

Drosten: Yes, but a distinction has to be made between "approved" and "on the market." The first vaccines may even be approved by the end of the year. But the question is how many people you can inoculate. At first it won’t be that many. That’s why people with a risk of severe illness as well as health workers are likely to get vaccinated first.

ZEIT ONLINE: Many experts believe that the first-generation vaccines are unlikely to protect against infection. Do you agree?

Drosten: They are more likely to protect against a severe form of the disease than against the infection itself. However, data from experiments with primates also suggests that vaccination reduces the viral load in the throat (for example: New England Journal of Medicine: Corbett et al., 2020). So, I doubt that the virus will spread unhindered under the cover of the vaccination. I also expect that the not-so-great first-generation vaccines will play their part in helping to control the pandemic. If you have enough of them.

ZEIT ONLINE: That won’t be the case at first. How should we imagine this transitional period?

Drosten: There will be a juxtaposition next year. We will have different vaccines, which may even have differing efficacy, and parts of the population will be vaccinated with them. At the same time, contact restrictions and the basic hygiene rules will still be important.
www.zeit.de/wissen/2020-10/christian-drosten-coronavirus-infection-winter-virologist/komplettansicht[/quote]
That sounds positive overall.

All the protocols made public so far require 50% efficacy, this is also the minimum requirement for FDA approval (US).

The seasonal flu vaccine wouldn’t always pass that bar.

I listened last week to a podcast talking to the New York Times Science editor about a possible CoVid vaccine. Apparently he had been v pessimistic and thought the earliest one available should one work would take at least 4 years. He said speaking to different sources he thinks there are 4 or 5 vaccines being studied at the moment that are looking promising and a good chance at least one will get approval by the end of the year. However, even if it does, and still no guarantee testing not over, he said it would take at least until next spring to summer to become available to the wider population and will be rolled out in stages.