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Original poster

Is a vaccine imminent?

151 replies

Forgetmenot157 · 07/10/2020 23:36

Last few days there are lots of stories about a vaccine being ready to go by November. Stories about huge vaccination stations with doctors, vets, dentists etc ready to give out the vaccine, and even the head of the Who suggesting it will be ready to go in a few weeks....

Do they know More than they are letting on? At the moment I couldn't care less if it won't be the most effective vaccine long as it means a quicker return to normality. Plus I think people being able to see the finish line will motivate most for one last push to surpress the virus befor enough are vaccinated.

OP posts:
ramblingsonthego · 08/10/2020 12:29

@mollypuss1 fingers crossed! And its worth it for a ruler 😂😂

We just decided to do our bit for this crisis. We have had a lot of people telling us we are crazy and we could die or get ill from the vaccine but if people don't step up this vaccines never make it market. Its different taking part in a phase 3 trial to a phase 1 trial as well!

notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 12:31

There may never be a vaccine. Really promising drugs in phase 3 trials often fail at the last hurdle.

Alternatively, there may be a new treatment that is more effective than we have now but still not a vaccine. It's all guesswork at the moment.

IcedPurple · 08/10/2020 12:34

@notevenat20

There may never be a vaccine. Really promising drugs in phase 3 trials often fail at the last hurdle.

Alternatively, there may be a new treatment that is more effective than we have now but still not a vaccine. It's all guesswork at the moment.

Nothing is guaranteed, but given that there are at least 100 vaccines in development, some in the late stages, it's extremely likely that there will be one or several effective vaccines available quite soon.
janetmendoza · 08/10/2020 12:51

No not imminent at all. Possibly just possibly some limited roll out by spring which if successful might lead to vaccination of the vulnerable by early summer 2021. Then the over 50s possibly end of 2021. Everyone else can take their chances or pay for it privately is my guess.

Austereorange · 08/10/2020 12:54

@Ellsbells12 the news article explains as much as I can. The company she works for is a biologistics producer and they are on the keele university campus. The article says there may be restrictions in administering due to the temperature both these vaccines need to be held at, so specific centres will need to be set up - she says this won’t be a ‘pop to the GP’ affair. I must ask how that’ll work when they need to be given to care homes.

They’ve been working on the vaccine since the start of the pandemic.

Anyway, for the first time I actually think it’s looking like it’s tangibly close.

2020CanDoOne · 08/10/2020 12:57

I am loving this, mostly, very positive feed. Let's see what happens over the next few weeks but I have everything crossed. (and my sleeves rolled up for when they start vaccinating to the "younger" people!)

notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 13:09

Nothing is guaranteed, but given that there are at least 100 vaccines in development, some in the late stages, it's extremely likely that there will be one or several effective vaccines available quite soon.

That's not right. It's possible but there is no reason to believe it is extremely likely. Also , we have to temper our expectations about what effective means. Some years our seasonal flu vaccine is only 20% effectice.

IcedPurple · 08/10/2020 13:18

That's not right. It's possible but there is no reason to believe it is extremely likely.

There is plenty of reason to believe it. We have unprecedented funds and efforts dedicated to producing a vaccine. Those actually working in the field - as opposed to doom and gloomers on MN - are highly confident that there will be one if not several safe and effective vaccines available within the year, possibly considerably sooner.

Also , we have to temper our expectations about what effective means. Some years our seasonal flu vaccine is only 20% effectice.

And some years it's a lot more than that. Not to mention that covid, unlike the various flu viruses, appears to be pretty stable and considered unlikely to undergo significant mutations.

Which isn't to say that a vaccine will be a silver bullet, but it's likely to happen quite soon and to be effective, no matter what the doom addicts on MN want to believe.

cathyandclare · 08/10/2020 13:40

In the UK the seasonal flu vaccine is developed as a best guess based on the predominant strains in the southern hemisphere during their winter, sometimes that's wrong. These vaccines are being developed specifically for this known virus, which as Iced says is more stable ( so far!!)

notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 13:47

I like optimism and maybe that is the best strategy in any case in these difficult times.

loulouljh · 08/10/2020 13:50

This assumes of course people will be willing to have it!! I wonder how many will...the worried well will of course but have no idea of percentages...

BlueBlancmange · 08/10/2020 13:59

@janetmendoza

No not imminent at all. Possibly just possibly some limited roll out by spring which if successful might lead to vaccination of the vulnerable by early summer 2021. Then the over 50s possibly end of 2021. Everyone else can take their chances or pay for it privately is my guess.
Where have you got this from? That's not what it has been sounding like over recent weeks.
Sb2012 · 08/10/2020 14:19

Yes I also would like to know where this has come from as recent news doesn’t show any indication of this.

Pachonga · 08/10/2020 14:20

According to Fauci, who has zero reason to lie, the US will start immunisations of the most vulnerable by the end of the year, with everyone else being done over the next few months. Why wouldn’t the UK have a similar timeline? The vaccines are already in production by their million.

Jenasaurus · 08/10/2020 14:24

Dr John Campbell on his latest Youtube video said the USA Vaccine is expected to be ready in December but I imagine the UK wont be until later. Not sure how it works to be honest or even if its the same vaccine as the one in the states.

SqidgeBum · 08/10/2020 14:25

@BlueBlancmange @Sb2012

It was being reported on British news outlets only a few days ago.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-head-less-than-half-of-the-uk-population-could-get-vaccinated-12090472

www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-vaccine-who-gets-boris-johnson-lockdown-chris-witty-b837694.html

Pachonga · 08/10/2020 14:26

I don’t trust this US administration any more than I would trust the UK’s right now but you get to know which voices to listen to and they’re all saying sooner rather than later, November even.

Thiscantreallybehappening · 08/10/2020 14:37

Can anyone who knows about how these things work help me on a couple of questions?

I read that the Oxford vaccine was going into phase 3 trials, I think that was a few weeks ago. I also read that they gave 2 jabs, 28 days apart. If that is correct, it would mean that they were maybe just now doing the second jab of thousands of people. I then assume these people need to have exposure to the virus and then reports, findings, results need to be complied and then go to the relevant agencies for approval.

Am I missing something because if not, I just don't see how that can all be done by the end of the year. Obviously, it would be wonderful news if the vaccine is ready to be rolled out but I don't want to get my hopes up.

notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 14:37

Where have you got this from? That's not what it has been sounding like over recent weeks.

A vaccine is ready once there is a published paper (or at least preprint) setting out the results of the trial. Until then, everything is just optimism even if well placed.

cathyandclare · 08/10/2020 14:53

The Oxford trial went into phase 3 trials a while ago in the uk- July I think. It has also been running in Brazil and S Africa for a while. The US arm is still on hold at the moment ( although they will monitor people who have already had the jab) . But I think there are 8000 in the UK and 5000 in Brazil.

Thiscantreallybehappening · 08/10/2020 15:04

@cathyandclare

Thank you, obviously phase 3 trials started earlier than I thought.

notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 15:21

It's not clear if the US arm is on hold because of commercial pressures (they want a US vaccine) or really for safety reasons.

MyBabyBoyBlue · 08/10/2020 15:24

Thank you for this thread, it has really given me a boost on a day when it was all just getting too much again.

Char2015 · 08/10/2020 15:44

@notevenat20

It's not clear if the US arm is on hold because of commercial pressures (they want a US vaccine) or really for safety reasons.
If there were real safety issues, then the trials would not be continuing anywhere but we know that they have recommenced everywhere apart from US.
Bouncycastle12 · 08/10/2020 15:44

I really needed this thread!

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