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Original poster

Is a vaccine imminent?

151 replies

Forgetmenot157 · 07/10/2020 23:36

Last few days there are lots of stories about a vaccine being ready to go by November. Stories about huge vaccination stations with doctors, vets, dentists etc ready to give out the vaccine, and even the head of the Who suggesting it will be ready to go in a few weeks....

Do they know More than they are letting on? At the moment I couldn't care less if it won't be the most effective vaccine long as it means a quicker return to normality. Plus I think people being able to see the finish line will motivate most for one last push to surpress the virus befor enough are vaccinated.

OP posts:
Frazzled2207 · 08/10/2020 15:53

Ooh I have also applied for the novavax trial not hear back yet but really want to get involved.

Novavax will take longer but generally, yes I think there will be positive news by the end of the year but vaccinating millions will take months. I think it’s in the government’s interest to play it all down until it actually does get the green light, as there might well be last minute hitches.

GardenSanctuary · 08/10/2020 16:00

@notevenat20

Where have you got this from? That's not what it has been sounding like over recent weeks.

A vaccine is ready once there is a published paper (or at least preprint) setting out the results of the trial. Until then, everything is just optimism even if well placed.

You are wrong. I do wish people would stick to actual facts.

A vaccine has to be approved by health authorities such as the UK MHRA, EMEA, and US FDA once they have submitted their data to them. It has nothing to do with papers in journals.

ramblingsonthego · 08/10/2020 16:02

@mollypuss1 husband has just got back. He was accepted on the trial. He has had his first vaccine and has to go back in 3 weeks for his second one. He has no idea if it was corona vaccine or placebo but he will find out at the end of the study apparently.

ramblingsonthego · 08/10/2020 16:02

Oh and @mollypuss1 he got a free ruler and a thermometer! Bonus thermometer here.

ramblingsonthego · 08/10/2020 16:04

@Frazzled2207

Ooh I have also applied for the novavax trial not hear back yet but really want to get involved.

Novavax will take longer but generally, yes I think there will be positive news by the end of the year but vaccinating millions will take months. I think it’s in the government’s interest to play it all down until it actually does get the green light, as there might well be last minute hitches.

Good luck Frazzled! Husband just got back and all OK so far.
Sb2012 · 08/10/2020 16:12

Thank you for clarifying this.

Delatron · 08/10/2020 16:19

Surely it’s ok that it will be just a certain part of the population that are vaccinated? We know who the vulnerable are and we can protect them. The aim in all this is to not overwhelm the NHS. Rather than vaccinate an entire population?

Good to hear some positive news. I am happy to not have the vaccine, happy for it the be the older age groups. Like with flu. But as children aren’t the super spreaders they are with flu, they won’t need it either.

pjani · 08/10/2020 16:23

No vaccines candidates have been shown to be effective yet. There is a good vaccine tracker here www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

Something like 90% of vaccine candidates fail! I'm trying to assume the first 9 will fail to manage my expectations.

1990s · 08/10/2020 16:47

Some of the people on this thread... I mean anyone could be anyone but am I going to listen to someone who say they work in field, or someone who basically says “I know nothing about this but it’ll never happen”

Jeez Hmm

rubbishatballet · 08/10/2020 16:47

Just to add a sprinkle more hope as another NHS person who's Trust is expecting and planning for a fairly imminent rollout of the Covid-19 mass vaccination programme (we will be operating one of the hubs, so quite involved).

IcedPurple · 08/10/2020 16:53

@1990s

Some of the people on this thread... I mean anyone could be anyone but am I going to listen to someone who say they work in field, or someone who basically says “I know nothing about this but it’ll never happen”

Jeez Hmm

There are quite a few people here absolutely addicted to the doom and drama of it all.

I especially love it when they add 'I'm afraid' or 'Sorry' to their uninformed speculation, as in "There won't be a vaccine for some time I'm afraid." As though they were well-informed experts rather than random doom mongerers on MN.

GardenSanctuary · 08/10/2020 17:10

Of course there will be a vaccine soon. I think we will hear in November. Wine

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 08/10/2020 17:13

‘Something like 90% of vaccine candidates fail!’

Fail at the final hurdle, or at some point during development?

fadingfast · 08/10/2020 17:14

I think all the roll out plans are being put in place now so that IF a vaccine gets approved, we will be able to start the process of vaccination as soon as possible. I don't think it should be taken as an indication that a vaccine is imminently about to be approved, even though that's of course what we all hope. It would be ridiculously incompetent, even by our low standards, to wait for approval and then start planning the roll out.

CrunchyCarrot · 08/10/2020 17:19

The FDA have said that any Covid vaccine will have to pass phase 3 trials and have said that 50% of participants must be followed up for a 2 month period. So that would take us to early December or even into 2021.

Data from Phase 3 studies should include a median follow-up duration of at least two months after completion of the full vaccination regimen to help provide adequate information to assess a vaccine’s benefit-risk profile

www.fda.gov/media/142749/download

GoldenOmber · 08/10/2020 17:22

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

‘Something like 90% of vaccine candidates fail!’

Fail at the final hurdle, or at some point during development?

Fail at some point during development. Most of the vaccines that make it to Phase 3 succeed. And given that there’s a number of different vaccines there at the moment, odds are pretty good that at least one will be approved.
GoldenOmber · 08/10/2020 17:24

I especially love it when they add 'I'm afraid' or 'Sorry' to their uninformed speculation, as in "There won't be a vaccine for some time I'm afraid." As though they were well-informed experts rather than random doom mongerers on MN.

Haha, yes I’d noticed that too. “It’s going to be at least 2028 until a vaccine even starts getting manufactured I’m afraid. No, I don’t actually know anything about this, but that is what I have decided is going to happen and I feel some sort of compulsion to present this as authoritative fact any time anyone starts sounding positive about a vaccine, so there you go. Sorry.”

IcedPurple · 08/10/2020 17:33

@GoldenOmber

I especially love it when they add 'I'm afraid' or 'Sorry' to their uninformed speculation, as in "There won't be a vaccine for some time I'm afraid." As though they were well-informed experts rather than random doom mongerers on MN.

Haha, yes I’d noticed that too. “It’s going to be at least 2028 until a vaccine even starts getting manufactured I’m afraid. No, I don’t actually know anything about this, but that is what I have decided is going to happen and I feel some sort of compulsion to present this as authoritative fact any time anyone starts sounding positive about a vaccine, so there you go. Sorry.”

Don't forget the 3rd cousin twice removed who is a 'nurse in ICU' or the 'DH' who is 'high up in the NHS'.
mollypuss1 · 08/10/2020 17:43

@ramblingsonthego

Oh and *@mollypuss1* he got a free ruler and a thermometer! Bonus thermometer here.
Excellent, I forgot I got a thermometer aswell as I’ve been using my own. And three home Covid tests (just in case). I go back for my second jab on the 21st. Grin
Char2015 · 08/10/2020 18:11

Our trust have now advised staff to get the flu vaccine now if people want it as you have to leave a few weeks between the flu vaccine and covid-19 vaccine. Sounding ever more likely the vaccine is on its way very soon.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 08/10/2020 18:14

Serious question- how does anyone know if the vaccine is going to work when surely the trials haven’t been unblinded at this stage?
I get that we can be pretty confident it’s safe but won’t be only be sure it’s effective when it gets to the end?
Or do they release bits of the results internally as they’re going along?

bathtimebubblebath · 08/10/2020 18:17

I haven't heard of this and have attended conferences about COVID where experts have been saying we'll likely be waiting until Spring.

I wish it was November though!

Char2015 · 08/10/2020 18:24

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

Serious question- how does anyone know if the vaccine is going to work when surely the trials haven’t been unblinded at this stage? I get that we can be pretty confident it’s safe but won’t be only be sure it’s effective when it gets to the end? Or do they release bits of the results internally as they’re going along?
It's not blind to everyone as the principle investigators, know who has got the vaccine and who got the placebo. They are the ones inputting and analysing the results as they come through. They have a set limit, once it hits that limit, then that's when they say we are ready to analyse data and if significant in that it is effective then they will seek approval and get it signed off.
GardenSanctuary · 08/10/2020 18:25

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

Serious question- how does anyone know if the vaccine is going to work when surely the trials haven’t been unblinded at this stage? I get that we can be pretty confident it’s safe but won’t be only be sure it’s effective when it gets to the end? Or do they release bits of the results internally as they’re going along?
I would be very surprised if they had not had some sort of interim report (unblinded to some).
TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 08/10/2020 18:25

Fantastic, thank you.