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Original poster

Is a vaccine imminent?

151 replies

Forgetmenot157 · 07/10/2020 23:36

Last few days there are lots of stories about a vaccine being ready to go by November. Stories about huge vaccination stations with doctors, vets, dentists etc ready to give out the vaccine, and even the head of the Who suggesting it will be ready to go in a few weeks....

Do they know More than they are letting on? At the moment I couldn't care less if it won't be the most effective vaccine long as it means a quicker return to normality. Plus I think people being able to see the finish line will motivate most for one last push to surpress the virus befor enough are vaccinated.

OP posts:
notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 18:31

You are wrong. I do wish people would stick to actual facts. A vaccine has to be approved by health authorities such as the UK MHRA, EMEA, and US FDA once they have submitted their data to them. It has nothing to do with papers in journals.

You are right that that is when it is available. But at the point when the results are published and are positive is when I still believe it is coming.

I have no idea why you referred to sticking to the facts.

notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 18:33

Most of the vaccines that make it to Phase 3 succeed.

That claim really needs a percentage. My understanding is that it's about 50%.

pinkbalconyrailing · 08/10/2020 18:34

but published results are only part of the assessment of the medicines authorities.

notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 18:36

It's not blind to everyone as the principle investigators, know who has got the vaccine and who got the placebo

These are double blinded trials. It is true that there are people who could in principle find out but they are really not supposed to during the trial.

ramblingsonthego · 08/10/2020 18:41

@notevenat20

It's not blind to everyone as the principle investigators, know who has got the vaccine and who got the placebo

These are double blinded trials. It is true that there are people who could in principle find out but they are really not supposed to during the trial.

Well Husband and the nurse were told to look away today so they couldn't see what was being injected so I would be pretty sure the Dr injecting it knew if it was the real vaccine or saline today!
GoldenOmber · 08/10/2020 18:42

@notevenat20

Most of the vaccines that make it to Phase 3 succeed.

That claim really needs a percentage. My understanding is that it's about 50%.

academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/4817524 This gives it as 85%
notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 19:03

@GoldenOmber

That's a nice reference.

Char2015 · 08/10/2020 19:03

@notevenat20

It's not blind to everyone as the principle investigators, know who has got the vaccine and who got the placebo

These are double blinded trials. It is true that there are people who could in principle find out but they are really not supposed to during the trial.

That's not correct. Someone has to know who gets what vaccine. The principle investigators are aware. They are not the ones vaccinating the patients. You blind the ones giving the vaccine so they don't say or do anything that can lead the patient to change their behaviour.
notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 19:04

Well Husband and the nurse were told to look away today so they couldn't see what was being injected so I would be pretty sure the Dr injecting it knew if it was the real vaccine or saline today

That's mysterious. Doesn't sound very double blind!

notevenat20 · 08/10/2020 19:05

That's not correct. Someone has to know who gets what vaccine. The principle investigators are aware. They are not the ones vaccinating the patients. You blind the ones giving the vaccine so they don't say or do anything that can lead the patient to change their behaviour.

Yes that's right.

BlueBlancmange · 08/10/2020 19:31

@GoldenOmber

I especially love it when they add 'I'm afraid' or 'Sorry' to their uninformed speculation, as in "There won't be a vaccine for some time I'm afraid." As though they were well-informed experts rather than random doom mongerers on MN.

Haha, yes I’d noticed that too. “It’s going to be at least 2028 until a vaccine even starts getting manufactured I’m afraid. No, I don’t actually know anything about this, but that is what I have decided is going to happen and I feel some sort of compulsion to present this as authoritative fact any time anyone starts sounding positive about a vaccine, so there you go. Sorry.”

Haha it's so true Grin
feesh · 08/10/2020 19:43

I’m in the UAE and they are very quietly rolling out the Sinopharm vaccine here. It’s only had emergency-approval for key workers so far and hospital and teaching staff have already had it. But my husband was offered it today on the basis that someone in the family has a chronic condition - and he’s definitely not a key worker! They seem to be rolling it out on the QT as it hasn’t been officially approved for general use yet. It’s very odd. I do think it will be approved soon though and I expect the whole country will have been done by NYE.

ramblingsonthego · 08/10/2020 19:53

@notevenat20

Well Husband and the nurse were told to look away today so they couldn't see what was being injected so I would be pretty sure the Dr injecting it knew if it was the real vaccine or saline today

That's mysterious. Doesn't sound very double blind!

I can only say what my husband said when he got home. He definitely said they were told to look away so they had no idea what was being injected. Although husband is now convinced for some reason he had saline with no theory other than a feeling 😂
DobbyTheHouseElk · 08/10/2020 19:54

This all looks very promising.

Ellsbells12 · 08/10/2020 19:59

[quote CrunchyCarrot]The FDA have said that any Covid vaccine will have to pass phase 3 trials and have said that 50% of participants must be followed up for a 2 month period. So that would take us to early December or even into 2021.

Data from Phase 3 studies should include a median follow-up duration of at least two months after completion of the full vaccination regimen to help provide adequate information to assess a vaccine’s benefit-risk profile

www.fda.gov/media/142749/download[/quote]
That is the US

Ellsbells12 · 08/10/2020 20:01

@GoldenOmber ha ha so true

Scottishgirl85 · 08/10/2020 20:05

Nope, vaccine first half of next year and roll out will be by priority list. Healthy under 50s will be waiting a long time!

Original poster
Forgetmenot157 · 08/10/2020 20:20

@Scottishgirl85

Nope, vaccine first half of next year and roll out will be by priority list. Healthy under 50s will be waiting a long time!
As a healthy under 50 I don't care if and when I get the vaccine.. Just want the elderly and vulnerable to get it so these restrictions can be lifted.
OP posts:
GoldenOmber · 08/10/2020 20:59

Don't forget the 3rd cousin twice removed who is a 'nurse in ICU' or the 'DH' who is 'high up in the NHS'.

Remember a while ago on here when there was that WhatsApp rumour that the Queen was dead, and some people were still posting "my DH is in a position to know (can't say more as outing) and says that this is true, sadly" or "I have been informed that the nation will be told of this tomorrow at 9.30," like they hadn't seen the exact same screenshot of a WhatsApp from someone called Gibbo that the rest of us had? Yeah... Grin

JosephineDeBeauharnais · 08/10/2020 21:06

I’ve just been enrolled into a vaccine trial in a group of 500, first assessment next week. The trial takes place over a 56 week period which sort of suggests that we’re some way off having a vaccine generally available, even accepting that some teams are ahead of others.
Even though I’m in the trial, I don’t actually believe there’ll ever be a vaccine against this particular virus.

dollychopss · 08/10/2020 21:26

@Scottishgirl85

Nope, vaccine first half of next year and roll out will be by priority list. Healthy under 50s will be waiting a long time!
Unless you pay for it 😬
dollychopss · 08/10/2020 21:30

@GoldenOmber

Don't forget the 3rd cousin twice removed who is a 'nurse in ICU' or the 'DH' who is 'high up in the NHS'.

Remember a while ago on here when there was that WhatsApp rumour that the Queen was dead, and some people were still posting "my DH is in a position to know (can't say more as outing) and says that this is true, sadly" or "I have been informed that the nation will be told of this tomorrow at 9.30," like they hadn't seen the exact same screenshot of a WhatsApp from someone called Gibbo that the rest of us had? Yeah... Grin

And the one about Prince Philip and that Watsapp message about a woman who said we had to stay in and lock all of our windows because all our kids were going to die of covid
DryHeave · 08/10/2020 21:32

No. WHO are hoping for 2bn doses by the end of 2021 and they say that timeline is optimistic.

GoldenOmber · 08/10/2020 21:38

@DryHeave

No. WHO are hoping for 2bn doses by the end of 2021 and they say that timeline is optimistic.
That’s the timeline for manufacturing 2 billion doses, though, not the timeline for a vaccine being approved by regulators.
GoldenOmber · 08/10/2020 21:44

I think we will have a vaccine by the end of the year but nobody can say right now, until we see the results of the trials.

What we can be relatively more confident about is that by the end of the year, the vaccines that are currently in Phase 3 trials will probably have gathered enough data (as in, trial volunteers getting covid) to say whether it looks like the vaccine is working or not. And it’s possible the answer will be “no” of course. But if it’s “yes”, then the government is not going to want to wait a day longer than necessary to start rolling this out.

So that’s why they’re making plans for a fairly imminent vaccine I reckon.

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