The average age of people who die of Covid is apparently older than British life expectancy. This can't be true can it?

[Treesofwood]

I've tried to find data rather than just a tweet and I can't. I did find something about the median age of deaths in France being 81. This can't be true either, surely? Median being the middle number if they were all lined up.
I knew it disproportionately impacted older people obviously, but surprised by this data.

[quote KormaKormaChameleon]@NikeDeLaSwoosh

I think vital services need to be protected so they are available for all that need them. We can't have them swamped and unavailable but neither can we have them half shut down creating a less visible crisis.

I agree with this all day though and it's so refreshing to read:

*We perhaps need to accept the fact that this virus is going to do terrible things - kill the elderly and vulnerable and potentially leave some people with long term effects.

We don't have an automatic right to an easy/long/healthy life though. It's just naive to think that with enough pluck and determination we can overcome any challenge we face as a civilisation.

I've said this before, but its only in the last 100 years or so that we realistically expected all of our DCs to outlive us (and indeed to survive childbirth). Perhaps we need to accept that this is going to be a dark chapter of our history, and no amount of mask-wearing and hand gel is going to magically fix it*

Perhaps a focus on where the bottle necks are - there's no excuse for the NHS to be in such a poor position going into this winter except denial/apathy.[/quote]
Perhaps we can come out of this crisis as a society determined to give more of a priority to education and health. That would be a big positive.

@herecomesthsun that is how the calculation works. Covid risk of death is influenced by existing risks of death
So covid doesn't increase your risk of death 2x. You were already two times more likely to die in the next year because of diabetes, obesity, heart disease, old age or whatever else is in the hopper. That was the calculation he was discussing. I've no idea if it's true either, but it certainly seems like it. An unhealthy population is vulnerable in general, and we are an unhealthy nation. So we should have binned all the money spent on test and trace and just spent the money on NHS funding for the winter.

Here you go. www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259
Please do carry on with saying its
not true!

@Tootletum

Here you go. www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259 Please do carry on with saying its not true!

There are versions of this that include a more detailed assessment of risk by risk factors.

It is possible to have risk factors that would cumulatively make covid 19 a relatively larger risk, for example being BAME, but which wouldn't in themselves otherwise make you likely to die in the next year.

These risk factors, which may normally be irrelevant or dormant, can add up to be significant in the context of covid infection.

The article you cited doesn't specifically discuss this, so doesn't negate my previous point.

Lot of 50 and 60 year olds only survive COVID if there is a hospital bed available for them when they need it. Overwhelm the hospitals and the average age of death decreases.

@Porcupineinwaiting

Lot of 50 and 60 year olds only survive COVID if there is a hospital bed available for them when they need it. Overwhelm the hospitals and the average age of death decreases.

You see, that’s the scary part. With common cold, I don’t even need to do anything, even if I have high blood pressure, and have a few pounds on me and asthma.

I am sorry but I do not want anyone raising my kids for me, I don’t like my family that much because they can be toxic due to being too religious.

Of course it's true. Most old people survive it fine.

@Porcupineinwaiting

Lot of 50 and 60 year olds only survive COVID if there is a hospital bed available for them when they need it. Overwhelm the hospitals and the average age of death decreases.

Yes, exactly.

"1 in 3 ICU admissions are men under 60. 1 in 7 are men in their 40s or under. "
mobile.twitter.com/trentconsultant/status/1308313229106597888

Average age of all ICU patients is just under 60. While most in these age groups will survive ICU it can result in a high demand on healthcare and that also has knock on effects on all other healthcare. As does large numbers of Covid-19 patients needing non ICU hospital beds.

NRS (ONS's Scottish counterparts) have published their annual death report:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54433305

31% of Scottish Covid deaths also had dementia or Alzheimers

92% had some sort of condition.

Average age of death 79 for men, 84 for women vs average life expectancy of 77/81

The obvious conclusion is that elderly Scottish people with Covid-19 live longer than those without...

@GregariousMountains

I would like to see some evidence of how long covid differs from other post viral syndromes. I have fibromyalgia, which was triggered by a viral labrinthitis infection 20+ years ago, makes life very difficult sometimes. I would like to know how 'long covid' compares andhow often it truly is long covid and not a case of the infection triggering a genetic trait ,as in my case, that could have been triggered by any infection.

I’m curious about this too.

As one Twitter once tweeted: a bear attacked me and i went to the hospital and developed diabete complications and died. A bear attack is my cause of death.

There seem to be several different types of Long Covid (it being early days, we don't know enough about it yet).

Some patients have post viral fatigue symptoms.

Others have suffered heart, kidney, or lung damage.

It's possible many more than initially thought might have heart, kidney, or lung damage. Not many have had scans yet. There's also the possibility of silent damage - patients without symptoms.

www.itv.com/news/2020-09-29/long-covid-long-term-effects-of-coronavirus-include-damage-to-heart-liver-kidneys-oxford-study-reveals

@SheepandCow

‘Long covid’ doesn’t exist. A very small number of people do suffer post-viral syndrome.

But this is the same as any other virus- there is no evidence at all that these after effects are any more common or severe with COVID.

[quote Ecosse]@SheepandCow

‘Long covid’ doesn’t exist. A very small number of people do suffer post-viral syndrome.

But this is the same as any other virus- there is no evidence at all that these after effects are any more common or severe with COVID.[/quote]
You'd better have a word with all the medical experts and tell them you know more than them.

Can you let the government know too. It's been reported that he NHS is now going to officially recognise Long Covid.

@Ecosse long COVID really is a problem for you isnt it? Gets in the way of your "fuss about nothing" diatribe.

Why dont you post some data to back up your claims? Cause the data that's freely available suggests you're talking out of your arse.

Does that mean that their lives don't matter? Would you say the same about people if it meant discriminating because of their colour or religion? How old should people die then?
I'm sure most people would agree it's less tragic for an 85 year old to die, than a 5 year old. It's not that their lives are worth less, but they have already lived their lives. They've had a long life and had the chance to do what they wanted. Younger people dying is more tragic because they havent had a chance to live a long life.

Average age of death 79 for men, 84 for women vs average life expectancy of 77/81

The obvious conclusion is that elderly Scottish people with Covid-19 live longer than those without...

That’s not how life expectancy works. It’s like when people hear that life expectancy in the Middle Ages was 40 and assume everyone was dying of old age in their late 30s!

Life expectancy at birth means the average age people reach before dying. So for someone born next year, they might die in early infancy from a congenital condition, or they might die in their 30s in a traffic accident, or they might die in their 50s from cancer, or they might die in their 90s from a heart attack. Life expectancy for a man of 77 is just all that averaged out.

But once someone’s reached 77, their individual life expectancy isn’t 77 any more because they’ve already not died when they were younger, so you’d expect them to keep going for a good few years yet. The average life expectancy for someone who is already aged 90 isn’t 77, it’s around 94.

We don’t write off the over-75s because old people are all at death’s door anyway, we’re not Harold bloody Shipman.

This is interesting

Even places like Brazil and the USA that basically have done fuck all have not had a total breakdown of social order or people dying on the streets

Most US states did lockdowns. A few sparsely populated states did not. It’s a lie to say the US had done ‘fuck all’

So 45 up is ehen the risk rises.

[quote Ecosse]@SheepandCow

‘Long covid’ doesn’t exist. A very small number of people do suffer post-viral syndrome.

But this is the same as any other virus- there is no evidence at all that these after effects are any more common or severe with COVID.[/quote]
Better get in touch with David Hunter, (Professor of Epidemiology and Medicine, University of Oxford) and tell him he doesn't know what he is talking about then.

And all the other infectious disease experts and doctors who have mentioned their growing concerns. And the large UK and global studies that have been set up, best get in touch quickly and tell them to stop wasting all that time and money on something which doesn't exist.

While most of the focus has been on deaths, small studies of COVID-19 survivors discharged from hospital suggest that many do not return to their baseline health status. We know little about “long COVID” among those who did not require hospital admission, despite many individual reports of recurrent bouts of fever, fatigue, and a wide range of other symptoms.

Follow-up of COVID-19 patients suggest evidence of damage to the heart, lungs and other organs that may cause problems in the future, and there is some evidence that this may be true even among those with mild symptoms. Many viral infections can cause undiagnosed pathology, but severe long-term effects are relatively uncommon. If these effects are more common for COVID-19, however, then an exclusive focus on deaths means that we will not be considering the full costs of failing to control the epidemic, nor the full benefits of doing so.

Studies have started among patients after discharge from hospital. We urgently need well-controlled studies among the majority of those infected who did not need hospitalisation in case we are only seeing the tip of the COVID iceberg.
David Hunter, (Professor of Epidemiology and Medicine, University of Oxford)
theconversation.com/amp/a-million-deaths-from-coronavirus-seven-experts-consider-key-questions-146085?

It is true. It's been true from the start.

You will have people telling you though that 82 is "no age".

Which is why we should've done what Australia and New Zealand did (and plenty of Asian countries) - took effective action to contain Covid

There is no one strategy to follow here. Why are you grouping a bunch of disparate countries that all took different strategies? From China with the insane lockdowns, Japan which did fuck all, and New Zealand which blocked any and all visitors and quarantined returnees in government facilities.

These are all very different approaches. I vote for the Japanese approach 😂

Btw, New Zealand’s approach cannot be replicated in most countries. It is an island country that is very remote without the kind of international links that most other countries have. They have like only 4 or 5 million people. Not at all comparable and they’ll need to keep those borders closed until an effective vaccine is available, which could be years!

One short but proper lockdown WITH closed borders (proper quarantine, where necessary, for essential travel like food imports). Borders stay restricted when lockdown eases

When lockdown eases, cases will go up. Simple as that.

@Northernsoulgirl45

So 45 up is ehen the risk rises.

Yes. SAGE noted this but it seems the UK government has failed to listen. Let's hope they revise their vaccination plans, to start from 45, not 50.

Re Long Covid. This is Scotland but it's happening with the NHS across the UK
www.nice.org.uk/news/article/nice-sign-announce-latest-rapid-covid-19-guideline-will-address-long-covid