The average age of people who die of Covid is apparently older than British life expectancy. This can't be true can it?

[Treesofwood]

I've tried to find data rather than just a tweet and I can't. I did find something about the median age of deaths in France being 81. This can't be true either, surely? Median being the middle number if they were all lined up.
I knew it disproportionately impacted older people obviously, but surprised by this data.

I think you have totally had a number done on you with all the scare tactics

As opposed to what? Conspiracy theories?

@Flaxmeadow. Even places like Brazil and the USA that basically have done fuck all have not had a total breakdown of social order or people dying on the streets.

Because they had lockdowns

You just don’t sound rational when you come out with things like that. Did we need lockdown in March? Yes. Is there any justification for it now? No

It hasn't gone away. The numbers are climbing again

In March the deaths went from 33 total to 10,000 total, IN A TWO WEEKS !

What do you think would have happened to those numbers without lockdown?

@Flaxmeadow

It being in the air and on surfaces doesn’t mean there’s enough it to cause infection

So how do you think it's spread?

I said in my previous post. And it’s not me, it’s scientists

It being present somewhere does not mean that it’s in a sufficient volume to cause disease. I am off to bed but there will be plenty out there if you want to look it up. I have a feeling you don’t though, you seem to be convinced everything is the worst case scenario based on not much but nothing will change your mind, so I’ll leave you to it.

@Flaxmeadow

I think you have totally had a number done on you with all the scare tactics

As opposed to what? Conspiracy theories?

@Flaxmeadow. Even places like Brazil and the USA that basically have done fuck all have not had a total breakdown of social order or people dying on the streets.

Because they had lockdowns

You just don’t sound rational when you come out with things like that. Did we need lockdown in March? Yes. Is there any justification for it now? No

It hasn't gone away. The numbers are climbing again

In March the deaths went from 33 total to 10,000 total, IN A TWO WEEKS !

What do you think would have happened to those numbers without lockdown?

It is not climbing at anywhere near the rate it was in March.

As for what would have happened if we hadn’t locked down - given the peak was on 8 April, those will have likely come from infections pre lockdown. Numbers were already falling.

And even if there had been more deaths - what’s the answer long term? I keep asking who pays for the NHS when the economy is in the pan and no one is working and paying tax, no answer yet.

And of course it’s not gone away. It is never going to go away! Lockdowns are stupid because they are not sustainable.

The CDC puts it simply enough here:

"COVID-19 can sometimes be spread by airborne transmission

Some infections can be spread by exposure to virus in small droplets and particles that can linger in the air for minutes to hours. These viruses may be able to infect people who are further than 6 feet away from the person who is infected or after that person has left the space.

This kind of spread is referred to as airborne transmission and is an important way that infections like tuberculosis, measles, and chicken pox are spread."

www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html

"Airborne transmission is infection spread through exposure to those virus-containing respiratory droplets comprised of smaller droplets and particles that can remain suspended in the air over long distances (usually greater than 6 feet) and time (typically hours). "

www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/scientific-brief-sars-cov-2.html

It is not climbing at anywhere near the rate it was in March.

I agree but it easily could start climbing again, and this is the thing, It could happen very quickly. Within weeks

As for what would have happened if we hadn’t locked down - given the peak was on 8 April, those will have likely come from infections pre lockdown. Numbers were already falling.

So you agree that lockdown worked

And even if there had been more deaths - what’s the answer long term? I keep asking who pays for the NHS when the economy is in the pan and no one is working and paying tax, no answer yet.

It's a balance. Between flattening the curve and saving the economy. A very fine balance. Too much lockdown and the economy is fucked. Too little lockdown and the services collapse

@Pyewhacket

I worked in Critical Care during the worst of it. The average age on our unit were early - mid fifties. The oldest was mid sixties, the youngest was 17. There were patients on other wards, in side rooms. They were probably older.

Was this cases or deaths?

Was this cases or deaths
If the younger patients survived (the UK seens unable to provide hospital recovery data, unlike most other countries), it's because they had hospital treatment.
Which they won't access if Covid runs through the population unchecked - because hospital beds will be full and the staff off sick (some for months).

@MadameBlobby

And of course it’s not gone away. It is never going to go away! Lockdowns are stupid because they are not sustainable.

Agree. Which is why we should've done what Australia and New Zealand did (and plenty of Asian countries) - took effective action to contain Covid.

One short but proper lockdown WITH closed borders (proper quarantine, where necessary, for essential travel like food imports). Borders stay restricted when lockdown eases. That's the way to do it.

We could do that now so that in three months time we'll be able to start a return to normality and kickstart economic recovery.

Unfortunately we're whingeing poms and instead we'll spend the next three months moaning and insisting that we can't, we can't, we can't. Despite other countries demonstrating that it can be done.
Fast forward three months and all still a shitshow.

We can deny it all we like but the facts are staring us in the face (even if foresight and common sense aren't).

The countries who have contained Covid all have healthier economies than us.

#SaveTheLongtermEconomyContainCovid

I keep asking who pays for the NHS when the economy is in the pan and no one is working and paying tax, no answer yet
A long term loan? A complete overhaul of free NHS care? Charge those who can afford it a few for the service.
I know you pay taxes for the NHS that isn't sustainable long term with out Covid.
The amount of people using gp appointments would half if there was a charge.

Which is why we should've done what Australia and New Zealand did (and plenty of Asian countries) - took effective action to contain Covid.

Much easier to do when you live on the other side of the world, have a lower population and lower population density, when you're not a major travel hub and didn't face the nightmare northern Italy did in March, or be close to it

Sheepandcow That's a really rubbish hashtag

@Flaxmeadow
Nowhere is helplessly a major travel hub.
It's entirely within our control.

New York City is usually a major travel hub.
They changed that because of Covid.

Japan is a large densely populated country. Singapore is densely populated. Other countries too.

Having seen what Italy went through, and China before them - because they didn't close down their economy and have people in hazmat suits spray disinfectant in the street for a bit of fun, we failed to take advantage of that warning.

But there you go. Exactly as I predicted. We won't do anything. We'll just keep up with the excuses and the yes, but, no buts, and the we can't, we can't, we can't.
What a shame.

@Treesofwood

Sheepandcow That's a really rubbish hashtag

It is a bit isn't it. I'll try to think of a better one overnight.

Was discussing this median death age on a local paper site earlier this evening coincidentally. The counter argument was ‘it swept through the care homes’ so let’s see what happens when most of the really vulnerable have bitten the dust then, as they cannot die twice.

On another note, I spotted a CDC report reckons 94% of Covid deaths have ‘underlying conditions’

www.jems.com/2020/08/31/cdc-report-underlying-conditions-94-percent-covid-19-deaths/

‘The CDC listed the following as just some of the top contributing conditions linked to coronavirus deaths: Influenza and pneumonia, respiratory failure, hypertensive disease, diabetes, cardiac arrest, and heart or renal failure, and vascular and unspecified dementia.’

I wonder how many were overweight or inactive? Or weren’t eating particularly healthily? I’d wager some of those heart/diabetes/lung associated deaths may have been prevented by good diet & frequent cardiovascular exercise.

So, I’d suggest instead of sitting on your backside waiting for a vaccine that may never come - if you are able to, no matter your age - go out for a walk, run or bike ride. Even BoJo has twigged it may be a good idea.

If the younger patients survived (the UK seens unable to provide hospital recovery data, unlike most other countries)

They do, it's in the ICNARC (Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre) reports (admission & outcomes data for patients in England, Wales and Northern Ireland admitted to ICU with confirmed COVID19).
mobile.twitter.com/NicolaMedical/status/1312397224530280449

www.icnarc.org/

@SheepandCow

I know you keep banging the NZ drum, but we’re really not NZ & we are posting 12,000 cases daily at the moment. Look at our adherence to TTI ffs:

Adherence to the test, trace and isolate system: results from a time series of 21 nationally representative surveys in the UK (the COVID-19 Rapid Survey of Adherence to Interventions and Responses [CORSAIR] study)

• Only 18% of people self-isolate after developing symptoms

• Only 11% quarantine after being told by NHS Test and Trace that they’ve been in contact with a confirmed case

It’s not happening, the ship has sailed

The whole thing is heart breaking for us, I am a parent of a CEV child. She is off school again and we will self shield. Most of the cases of the “ Kawasaki “ like illness were between 5-9 luckily no healthy children died. However unfortunately for us a Kawasaki like disease would be fatal to my 7 year old.
That being said - what worries me more is yes death rates in under 65 with no
Health conditions might be lower - of course they would be any healthy fit person under 65 would have a better chance of recovering from anything. However what we don’t know is if we do allow it to spread how many of those age groups who don’t die will need hospital beds / icu beds even if they do survive. This is where most likely it becomes a very dangerous scenario for my 7 year old daughter.
In the original break out we lived in a high case area of London which is also again not doing well in terms of other places in London.
At this time they had nearly 70 icu patients in a hospital that had a capacity of 20 !
They had to shut our children’s theatres down to use as ICU beds etc
Our children’s A&E recuss etc
It is easy to say shield the vulnerable but with the virus rife it would be be possible these are the people who are also more likely to need hospital treatment.
My issue is and this is my greatest concern is there is many reasons why my child might need a vent or ICU this winter, sepsis being her biggest risk which is what nearly became dangerous in March when there was 0 ambulances or recuss rooms when we needed one. My greatest fear as well as covid it self is the impact in the nhs it will
Have and how this winter if things hit here like they did back in March that I believe the risk of losing my daughter this year is higher whether she catches Covid or not.
I also know she will be listed as one of those people that people continuously say “ well they had underlying health conditions “
She is a happy, smart well adjusted child. She has a change at surviving her condition with treatment that we have thankfully received the last 7 years via the NHS. She goes to school, does ballet and loves skate boarding. She also has a family who love her more than the world it self.
The reality is thought she won’t be priority for a icu bed if choices had to be made between her and a healthy under 65 year old.
This is why we are shielding and not returning to school I want to limit anything she catches this year because I think the odds are stacked much higher this year.

Sorry for the essay.

@NikeDeLaSwoosh

I think vital services need to be protected so they are available for all that need them. We can't have them swamped and unavailable but neither can we have them half shut down creating a less visible crisis.

I agree with this all day though and it's so refreshing to read:

*We perhaps need to accept the fact that this virus is going to do terrible things - kill the elderly and vulnerable and potentially leave some people with long term effects.

We don't have an automatic right to an easy/long/healthy life though. It's just naive to think that with enough pluck and determination we can overcome any challenge we face as a civilisation.

I've said this before, but its only in the last 100 years or so that we realistically expected all of our DCs to outlive us (and indeed to survive childbirth). Perhaps we need to accept that this is going to be a dark chapter of our history, and no amount of mask-wearing and hand gel is going to magically fix it*

Perhaps a focus on where the bottle necks are - there's no excuse for the NHS to be in such a poor position going into this winter except denial/apathy.

@Someonetakemebackto91

Sorry my comment right below yours seems very cruel. My position is all resources should be put towards having the NHS available for safe treatment exactly for people like your daughter, and anyone that needs that. We can't control the 'demand' of NHS forever by restrictions which are also denying some care, so we need to create the 'supply' all of our country needs from it's vital services (whatever age or vulnerability) and if you can pay that much furlough etc etc you can spend the summer building a nightingale hospital in every county if needs be and drumming up all the staff you can etc etc.

I'm sorry you have an extra burden of worry this winter x

What's the average age that people die of other illnesses like flu for example? Just feels like although it will obviously be with in the older age group it can't be 80 plus. Why not? Life expectancy, which is merely a mean of the age at death of the population, includes all those who died at a much younger age including in infancy. So if you have an illness that is biased towards and older age group then it's quite reasonable that the average age of death from the illness will be greater than the life expectancy of the population.

@Someonetakemebackto91 That is really worrying for you. Take care

As more students get the virus there will be more like this www.nytimes.com/2020/10/05/us/covid-college-death-chad-dorrill.html