Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Where folks aware of the magnitude of the spread amongst Trump's circle?? Its insane:

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/07/trump-white-house-aides-campaign-military-test-positive-coronavirus

Scientific reaction to "The Great Barrington Declaration" / herd immunity

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-barrington-declaration-an-open-letter-arguing-against-lockdown-policies-and-for-focused-protection/

There is no ‘scientific divide’ over herd immunity

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/great-barrington-declaration-herd-immunity-scientific-divide

there is little about the Great Barrington Declaration that feels convincingly scientific.
.....
There’s a lot of talk of scientists divided over Covid-19, but when you look at the evidence any so-called divide starts to evaporate
....
On Twitter, the economist and statistician Tim Harford noted the “scientists divided” theme featured prominently in the campaigns of tobacco firms keen to delay action on smoking-related disease
and climate change deniers.

[quote Piggywaspushed]Where folks aware of the magnitude of the spread amongst Trump's circle?? Its insane:

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/07/trump-white-house-aides-campaign-military-test-positive-coronavirus[/quote]
.....
The US Attorney-General Barr was at that super-spreader event for the SCOTUS nomination
He was filmed wiping snot from his nose onto his hand and then shaking hands with people
Basic hygiene to avoid infection spread has been known for well over a century, but apparently not in the Trump administration
Even without an epidemic 🤮

Top MSAOs:

1. Manchester Fallowfield
2. Nottingham Uni park etc

but going by Imperial's predictions, discussed yesterday, Nottingham is the place to watch this week & next

imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table

Richard@RP131

Updated table of top 30 MSOAs based on today's latest report.

UK COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats

England's regional COVID-19 positives reported today (Oct 7):

North West: 3555
Yorkshire and The Humber: 1655
London: 1310
North East: 1057
East Midlands: 931
West Midlands: 928
South East: 849
East of England: 618
South West: 520

but going by Imperial's predictions, discussed yesterday, Nottingham is the place to watch this week & next

Our council has advised us not to mix households. Awaiting confirmation of restrictions tomorrow.

Thanks, I hadn't looked in enough detail!

England hospital admissions appear to be accelerating
Chart from John Roberts @john_actuary

@TwentyViginti

but going by Imperial's predictions, discussed yesterday, Nottingham is the place to watch this week & next

Our council has advised us not to mix households. Awaiting confirmation of restrictions tomorrow.

... Have you been warned there will be legal restrictions shortly and do you know if these will apply to the whole of Nottingham ?

Oh, how bizarre, i ddn't realise John Roberts was John Actuary.

It's going to be the whole of the city and the county, Nottinghamshire.

Nottingham: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-54439706. It'll be announced tomorrow I'm sure, they can't leave it where it's at.

The COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group are doing excellent work

Some niche groups like this have responded superbly to the crisis and gone beyond their job descripion;
something to remember when we bewail certain organisations which have performed far below par

Update on report last night re shortage of reagents for Covid tests:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/07/nhs-coronavirus-tests-threatened-by-roche-supply-chain-glitch

In a statement, the company said it was doing all it could to keep the crucial Covid testing materials flowing to labs and test centres,
but warned that the problems might not be resolved for two to three weeks.

“We are prioritising the dispatch of Covid-19 PCR and antibody tests, and are doing everything we can to ensure there is no impact on the supply of these to the NHS."

We'll have to see if this reduces the number of PCR tests over the next 2-3 weeks, or if there are sufficient stocks in the UK

@BigChocFrenzy

Top MSAOs: 1) Manchester Fallowfield 2) Nottingham Uni park etc

but going by Imperial's predictions, discussed yesterday, Nottingham is the place to watch this week & next

imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table

Richard@RP131

Updated table of top 30 MSOAs based on today's latest report.

I don't know if someone has already mentioned it but Manchester Fallowfield is student central. The vast majority of houses there are student rentals plus there are a couple of big halls of residence.

Manchester Rusholme is more concerning as it's a mix of student digs and primarily Asian community so with possible increases susceptibility in BAME communities(?) and multigenerational homes mixing with student populations could lead to higher hospitalisations and deaths.

In fact looking at the other Manchester MSOAs it's clearly driven by student populations.

I was a student in Manchester so these are the MSOAs of many drunken memories for me.

London's figure's are higher than the North East on that list. Will it see further restrictions before it's too late this time round? Actually the NE too probably needs preventative measures. Better that than reactive?

With the test issues. Will it affect private testing (including universities, and separately footballers, etc) as well? If not, is there any way possible for the NHS to use the private suppliers?

@SheepandCow

London's figure's are higher than the North East on that list. Will it see further restrictions before it's too late this time round? Actually the NE too probably needs preventative measures. Better that than reactive?

With the test issues. Will it affect private testing (including universities, and separately footballers, etc) as well? If not, is there any way possible for the NHS to use the private suppliers?

London has more cases per day because the number of people living there is far greater.

If you look at per 100k of population then London's figures are significantly lower. Rising yes, but not at the stage yet where additional restrictions are required.

@Littlebelina

Thanks. I misread my own handwriting.

The Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group are doing excellent work

Thank you BigChoc, I think a lot of the work actuaries are doing on this has been under the radar, so it’s really good to see some recognition for this. I agree there has been excellent work done by the mortality specialists in particular.

"The COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group are doing excellent work" totally agree with this. ONS also doing an excellent job. They have managed to stay outside government control, no doubt cummings will try to change that.

London's growth is slowed by having a high proportion of young people who got this first time around and by the rest of the population having seen what that means. They also have a lot of people who can work from home. They also have better resourced hospitals, they dont need extra restrictions yet but should be on a watch list for the potential to go bad very quickly.

Anyone else reading the newspaper accounts based on the Edinburgh University study that lockdowns cause more deaths in the long term?
Is it based on this www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.18.20135004v1.full.pdf which has just been accepted by the BMJ?
Counterintuitively they found that shutting schools and universities increases total deaths in the long term. They were tasked to do the research by SAGE and use the Imperial model to forecast possible outcomes. They seem to believe that we have made the situation worse by locking down as we did. Increasing the spread among old and vulnerable instead of healthy people.
If they are correct it may well be that those university students are doing us all a big favour at the moment. Every infection makes it harder for the virus to find its next victim.

Discharging people untested from hospital into care homes increased the spread in the old and vulnerable. A big push on discharges was a key element of clearing beds for an expected wave hitting the NHS. It was not however an essential part of lockdown.

I note that a number of these "just let the virus spread" theoretical formulations are being put forward by people who aren't medical professionals. Prof Gupta is a zoologist. These Edinburgh study comes from a Department of Physics and Astronomy. There are some media doctors on this side as well, but there are a lot of senior medics suggesting that "just let the virus spread" is too simplistic a solution and that human situations are too complex to allow a neat division into vulnerable and non vulnerable . I would tend to agree about complexity.

I don't understand "every infection makes it harder for the virus to find its next victim."
Surely the more people infected, the wider the pool of potential next 'victims'?