Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy @MarshaBradyo @wintertravel1980 @MRex and everyone else who posts data, graphs and evidence.
Wales case data not great today as hospital transmission a key factor in Cwm Taf UHB
Meanwhile, various statements in recent days from Dr Frank Atherton, CMO, Kirsty Williams, Education Minister and Vaughan Gething, Health Minister, all consistent that 8/10 schools have had no cases

@Timeforanotherusername

ceevee i think that's just a delay in the results being processed.

I know my city is 0 for these dates, yet there will definitely be cases.

You’re probably right. But the COVID map seems to use the figures up to 3rd October, and from what I can tell, the rates per 100,000 are based on the tests up to 4th October so I had thought that they were assumed to be more or less complete...

@AlecTrevelyan006

twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1313883285274136577/photo/1

I’m astonished that BBC Radio 4 has all day carried stories of NHS hospitals ‘almost going under’ with the number of covid19 patients.
The figure below is a feed not available to the public, valid Monday, directly from NHS England’s computer.
You either believe BBC or NHS data.

Grey bars are ‘confirmed covid19 patients’.
We’ve the same proportion of the most intensive care beds occupied by very ill patients who are positive in a covid19 PCR year as has Sweden.

It's very localised though so both can be true at the same time.

The North West is in a real mess but nationally we are okay.

Surely you can see how both items can be true concurrently...

@NeurotrashWarrior -
Regional lookup: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=London.

Hospital daily admissions: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/.

Non-covid Hospital stats on operations and appointments: app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjRkMjNmNjctNWI0My00NmFkLTg1MDMtZTIxNGIyNTBmOWVlIiwidCI6IjUwZjYwNzFmLWJiZmUtNDAxYS04ODAzLTY3Mzc0OGU2MjllMiIsImMiOjh9.

111/999 triages (not always a reliable link IMO, but gives a regional flavour): digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/progression (warning, differently doesn't work on ipad) OR another version digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/nhs-pathways.

Thank you.

@Mybrowneyedgal

I have watched these threads from the start and used to find them really helpful. The fact base discussion and analysis of data stopped my anxiety spiralling out of control when media and forums were full of sensationalised versions of what was going on. Maybe it's just me, but now I'm finding this thread to be full of speculation, anecdotal and opinion based debate (particularly around education) rather than the focusing on data and facts. I didn't think that's what this thread was meant to be about, and it's not helping me in the same way it once did. That might not be the way anyone else is feeling, and perhaps I'm interpreting things incorrectly but I still thought I would post something in case anyone else agrees. I hope that hasn't offended anyone, I will go away and be quiet now.

I agree with you r

@Mybrowneyedgal

I have watched these threads from the start and used to find them really helpful. The fact base discussion and analysis of data stopped my anxiety spiralling out of control when media and forums were full of sensationalised versions of what was going on. Maybe it's just me, but now I'm finding this thread to be full of speculation, anecdotal and opinion based debate (particularly around education) rather than the focusing on data and facts. I didn't think that's what this thread was meant to be about, and it's not helping me in the same way it once did. That might not be the way anyone else is feeling, and perhaps I'm interpreting things incorrectly but I still thought I would post something in case anyone else agrees. I hope that hasn't offended anyone, I will go away and be quiet now.

I agree with you.

@Mybrowneyedgal

I have watched these threads from the start and used to find them really helpful. The fact base discussion and analysis of data stopped my anxiety spiralling out of control when media and forums were full of sensationalised versions of what was going on. Maybe it's just me, but now I'm finding this thread to be full of speculation, anecdotal and opinion based debate (particularly around education) rather than the focusing on data and facts. I didn't think that's what this thread was meant to be about, and it's not helping me in the same way it once did. That might not be the way anyone else is feeling, and perhaps I'm interpreting things incorrectly but I still thought I would post something in case anyone else agrees. I hope that hasn't offended anyone, I will go away and be quiet now.

I'll try again 🙈

I agree with you, especially when schools are discussed. I think the issue with schools is the lack of data to discuss so it ends up as opinion & anecdotes.

@Witchend
Interesting thing I've just noticed: The number of deaths released on the day for the last three weeks has been the same on Tuesday and Wednesday.
22nd/23rd: 37
29th/30th: 71
6th/7th: 76

One - yes, of course. Two - maybe. Three - definite error. That's my verdict.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54457377

BBC article saying that the traffic light announcement is being pushed back to Monday of next week. This is too soon to get actual evidence of whether the Scottish circuit break is working, but does allow them to do some polling on what people think of the restrictions (I suspect). It will be interesting to see if the Northern mayors get any influence or not - it would seem to me to be an easy win for the government, devolve the responsibilities to the regions and let them take the blame if it doesn’t work. If trust is a barrier to accepting rules then would hard to reach cohorts be more likely to accept a rule if it came from someone who looks and sounds like them?

I don't think it is about someone who looks and sounds like them. We aren't an alien species up North!
It is about trusting someone to allocate resources and effort in the best places to get results and to do them in an effective way. ( eg 19:00pm pub curfews causing more problems and not reducing spread)
It is also about trusting someone to have real insight into the actual situation and fighting for the right resources ( eg Andy Burnham saying he will only accept pub and hospitality venue shutdowns if these businesses are also given financial support)

Your nose twitching too about those duplicates, Mrex ? 🐁
Mine would twitch hard at even one duplicate, after all the wardrobe mishaps PHE have been having
Some very smelly cheese out there
< excuse madly mixed metaphors >

Maybe we can pop an EMail query to someone, even to your MP who can ask the question of the right people ?

• I no longer have one

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/07/covid-pubs-in-north-of-england-face-new-restrictions-in-days
I think this article explains some of the issues quite well.

Tolerance of curfews, shutdowns etc would at a minimum require govt support to pay the ensuing bills for both businesses and employees

[quote MRex]@Witchend
Interesting thing I've just noticed: The number of deaths released on the day for the last three weeks has been the same on Tuesday and Wednesday.
22nd/23rd: 37
29th/30th: 71
6th/7th: 76

One - yes, of course. Two - maybe. Three - definite error. That's my verdict.[/quote]
I might be missing something but wasn't it 70 not 76 today? (Although previous 2 tues/wed have been same)

@BigChocFrenzy

Tolerance of curfews, shutdowns etc would at a minimum require govt support to pay the ensuing bills for both businesses and employees

Indeed! But also evidence that the restrictions are actually sensible and will work to achieve a reduction in cases.

I managed to track down the 'Contain framework' (it was quite hard!) which I think has been a bit buried. Shutting pubs does ft in here but other measures (workplaces, schools ) seem to be being avoided for now:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/containing-and-managing-local-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreaks/covid-19-contain-framework-a-guide-for-local-decision-makers#annex-3-tiers-of-national-restriction

There is something of a lack of clarity about when each 'tier' kicks in.

@AlecTrevelyan006

twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1313883285274136577/photo/1

I’m astonished that BBC Radio 4 has all day carried stories of NHS hospitals ‘almost going under’ with the number of covid19 patients.
The figure below is a feed not available to the public, valid Monday, directly from NHS England’s computer.
You either believe BBC or NHS data.

Grey bars are ‘confirmed covid19 patients’.
We’ve the same proportion of the most intensive care beds occupied by very ill patients who are positive in a covid19 PCR year as has Sweden.

If it's not available to the public where did he get it from?

The covid map shouldn’t be using data up to 4th. It’s understated. Even oct 3rd will currently have 10-20% positive cases not accounted for, depending on the area. Oct 4th will have even more missing - 30-40% would be typical for that lag.

So many websites are using understated data. And the bloody bbc! It’s so misleading. Gets on my wick!!! They quoted 485 per 100k in Manchester
up to Oct 1st a few days ago - which was about 2 days too early to call. Final figure was 525/100k. Totally careless use of data.

Indeed, Littleowl
Data must be complete (and reliable) for the day, or it shouldn't be used
That does mean accepting we are always looking back a few days

One - yes, of course. Two - maybe. Three - definite error. That's my verdict.

Yes, as Littlebelina has said, there are only two duplicates. The numbers for 6/10 and 7/10 are different.

FWIW, I believe the two other duplicates are indeed a coincidence. The government dashboard contains breakdowns by nation and they are very different for 22nd/23rd and 29th/30th. The 4 nations just happen to add up to the same number.

Thanks @littleowl1! Makes sense

In the interest of correcting a misleading claim that some of you may have read last week, or heard quoted,
about doubling time:

Kucharski picked up earlier on some extraordinary cherry-picking of data by Heneghan in that CEBM piece claiming
Particularly disappointing, considering that Heneghan is Prof of Evidence-Based Medicine at CEBM (Centre for Evidence Based Medicine)
I'd expected him to be scrupulous wrt data, whatever his personal views on Covid strategy

Adam Kucharski@AdamJKucharski

Still find it baffling that the below article was last week trying to claim that the doubling time for COVID-19 in UK was more than three weeks...

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1313542566420324352

@wintertravel1980

One - yes, of course. Two - maybe. Three - definite error. That's my verdict.

Yes, as Littlebelina has said, there are only two duplicates. The numbers for 6/10 and 7/10 are different.

FWIW, I believe the two other duplicates are indeed a coincidence. The government dashboard contains breakdowns by nation and they are very different for 22nd/23rd and 29th/30th. The 4 nations just happen to add up to the same number.

.... Ah, thanks for the clarification For some reason, I thought the duplicates were just England data !

^twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1313883285274136577/photo/1^

This is an evidence and data based thread, but the source for your graphic is a twitter user who gives no source for his data and includes a dubious claim about it "not being available to the public".

His Twitter feed shows that he has a clear agenda of downplaying Covid-19 and his bio says he is retired. So as a previous poster says, where did he get it from?
Without a source or further explanation it's meaningless, anyone can create or edit a graphic.