Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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continues to look like the 30th, 1st and 2nd were something of a peak, though of course that could be a peak of peaks. Numbers since then don't look to be as high although of course there is some lag. not usually that much after 5 days though.

@Frazzled2207

numbers down slightly to 14162. Not exactly good but i suppose better than a jump to 16k+ which is what I was expecting .

Let's just hope they don't "find" the cases you (and me and many) were expecting over the weekend at 2 am.

Just to note from Ireland -

NPHET (equivalent of ‘SAGE’) called for Level 5 - which is full lockdown from this week for a period of 4 weeks. Government rejected and instead instigated Level 3 (similar to Scotland I guess, cafes limited indoors, less gatherings, gyms close)

Positive rate in Ireland 4% (it is rising steeply). 14 day incidence rate of 116 per 100,000 however in parts of Dublin this is double. Health system lacks capacity and there are 31 outbreaks in care homes. It looks grim.

@TheSunIsStillShining
was just thinking that!
tbh if they do I don't think the government will admit to finding any more lost numbers on their rogue excel spreadsheet. It will probably be shushed up.

[quote Frazzled2207]@TheSunIsStillShining
was just thinking that!
tbh if they do I don't think the government will admit to finding any more lost numbers on their rogue excel spreadsheet. It will probably be shushed up.[/quote]
My feelings too. I have my own spreadsheet (started for totally diff reason, so I will have any kind of dataset to do the R practices)
So I'm thinking of actually checking back in a week or bit more on worldometer pas data to see if gov has added backdated data.
I don't like the fact that I'm paranoid, but even less the fact that it is not totally unfounded. :(

Thanks KeepDistance that is interesting. I need to go to a city and was thinking of Exeter but then Plymouth seemed safer. I'm about half way between so can go to either. Can't decide what to do. Maybe I'll stay at home!

I heard the Vice Chancellor on the local news and they have sent some students home due to rule breaking, they have to apply through the disciplinary process to be allowed to return. Perhaps that will encourage a bit more rule following.

Torbay has risen as well but apparently that is also linked to an outbreak in a big care home.

It is hard to assess it all. Generally we have been very lucky so far so I suppose a rise was inevitable.

I'd heard Bristol was on the increase as well I must have a look at the figures. Just had a look and it does look like Bristol is increasing.

[quote MRex]@whatsnext2 - you're quite right to challenge for some sources related to virus mutations. Here is an interesting article about strains: www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6. We know some people have been infected more than once by different strains. We have no information to say that someone who is effectively fighting the disease would be safe if they caught another strain at the same time, it's a big risk to take.[/quote]
It may be scientifically remotely possible but as it hasn’t happened in the slums of India or Brazil or at a Trump rally the chances of it happening at a student party are probably meteor strike odds.

Do we know the average lag from date of test to date reported? The positive case numbers do look better today but there might be masses of positives in the pipeline.

@HoldingTight
anecdotally as is just from me staring at them for ages but I think after 4 days the vast majority of numbers are there. Someone will be along with a more scientific answer I'm sure .

I ask this as I recall a post yesterday (?) mentioning that a significant number of the day's reported cases were allocated to 28th Sept.

(if tests are taking longer to be processed though, as I think is the case at the moment, then of course that has a direct impact on the lag, you would assume)

Thanks frazzled - my brain is pretty frazzled these days!

Interesting thing I've just noticed: The number of deaths released on the day for the last three weeks has been the same on Tuesday and Wednesday.
22nd/23rd: 37
29th/30th: 71
6th/7th: 76

Hmm looking through the different regions it would look like data up until the 2nd or so is accurate, everything since then is suspiciously low sadly.

One last derail (I promise), but it is funny and slightly scientific.
My son lost 4 points on a biology test.
Q: "1.2 shows yeast as seen using a microscope.
Calculate the actual length of the yeast cell using the line PQ."
The img does say x5000
But: he is on a computer, where you can zoom in as much as you want :)
(yes, it would have been doable, but he didn't think it through to ask his dad to print it and measure it irl)

Education related (sorry) but relevant!

Breaking news :

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54423265

I looked up the Bristol study commins.org.uk/

They must have data by now if they started in September, but no news. Which I find a little concerning. Are they going to wait until 6 months are up to report? That's going to be too late to inform public health decisions.

They could at least tell us if their study mirrors the Northumbria University asymptomatic / symptomatic ratio.

No way to contact the team unfortunately to ask what is going on.

Are we the only country struggling with test capacity?

www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

The map does not look good is it maybe 50%+ blue. It's confusing due to the missing data but it seems like mines gone 0 to 7 now. So was contact tracing making quite a difference and these odd cases have now multipled? It still doesnt seem right round r here as the ones blue before have gone white. There are no reports for our 7 being school related.

@SheepandCow

Are we the only country struggling with test capacity?

Figures suggest that we test more than most other countries (per capita), however measures of testing vary so it's hard to say. The problem seems to be that we are using a scattergun approach to testing - presumably because our tracing is so poor.

York featuring on the argis map in dark blue for the first time. Centred in Heslington and Fulford which are the university areas.

@Fyzz

York featuring on the argis map in dark blue for the first time. Centred in Heslington and Fulford which are the university areas.

A new test site has opened up near the uni, so they're either being proactive or responding to a cluster.

For the person who mentioned London universities - not large numbers of cases being reported yet www.mylondon.news/news/west-london-news/london-covid-full-list-universities-19063121

Does anyone know what is so specific to Lowdon, Bleasby and Gunthorpe in the East Mids? Is that a factory outbreak?

[quote Piggywaspushed]Education related (sorry) but relevant!

Breaking news :

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54423265[/quote]
Is that equivalent to gcse or a level?