Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

JK many schools don’t have the space.

We didn’t have enough room even to get yr1, yr6 in in June. As so many KW etc

It’s hard to enable some schools and not others.

I am sure this set up is harder in terms of work for teachers but I bet a lot would take that over the high risks they are currently exposed to - our resident teachers might want to comment. The teacher also then effectively has 3 people to delegate to rather than 1 (appreciate there is a lot a teacher can't delegate, but still).

www.exeter.ac.uk/coronavirus/rapid-response/#a12

Not what i was looking for but, does show they arent generally randomly testing currently anyway but they will test certain symptomless groups

One to quote to the "its just flu" people - more people have already died in America from Covid than in the last 5 flu seasons combined - and sadly the deaths keep rising.

edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-covid-19-updates-tuesday/h_5da59c431e62a1c19c0899cfcf73d3ba

It’s hard to enable some schools and not others.

I would argue that we need to reduce transmission however we can. And the fact that some workplaces are unsafe is not a good reason to not improve H&S in others.

Also, if you're going to argue that it's unfair that some schools have better buildings than others - that argument would equally apply against building any new schools ever.

It’s not about being unfair it’s about what would be accepted. We don’t fund a small amount of state schools or split out guidance.

www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/covid-19-cluster-area-exeter-4546363

Feel like i read somewhere they might be asked to stop testing.

Surely it might be useful to categorize as student/care home/hospital etc or community as the measures will be different.
I think i saw bristol rising aa bit too but havent seen much about any uni cases.

teachers I know the majority of their children seem to have kept up, a small number who took the opportunity to not do any work need some catch up
Sorry this is only anecdotal.
DS teaches maths to age 18 in a comp with a very low number of pupil premium (a subsidy based on poverty) so not a school with deprivation. He has found shocking numbers of students have fallen very badly behind over lockdown. There are now big discrepancies within a group among those who engaged in lockdown and those who didn't.

I have so many opinions on schools :) But back to more tangible data type question

Do any of you recall any country which implemented short term lockdown? I can't think of any.
They keep saying "circuit breaker" but I wonder if there is any evidence backing up this?

I don't know if any private schools have repeated their mass testing ?

Anecdote is Eton are still regularly testing and sending kids home.

Accepted by whom? I know all the parents at DD's school were thrilled with summer schooling.

Also, it was accepted in June/July, so why not now?

It benefits EVERYONE if transmission is reduced and cases kept lower.

@IloveJKRowling

Accepted by whom? I know all the parents at DD's school were thrilled with summer schooling.

Also, it was accepted in June/July, so why not now?

It benefits EVERYONE if transmission is reduced and cases kept lower.

Of course they were.

Anyway this is a data / science thread. Can we move personal school anecdotes to school threads?

Broad school stuff / data is ok but I come on this thread to avoid personal school stories as a break from the rest of mn doing them.

I agree ilove but if anything school measures seem to be heading the other way. Photographers in/school tours/parents evenings/ bubble sizes increasing/more talk of swimming lessons/trips.

@Keepdistance

www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/covid-19-cluster-area-exeter-4546363

Feel like i read somewhere they might be asked to stop testing.

Surely it might be useful to categorize as student/care home/hospital etc or community as the measures will be different.
I think i saw bristol rising aa bit too but havent seen much about any uni cases.

Term has only recently started at Uni of Bristol, although UWE started earlier. DD2 ( Final year) reports only a few friends of friends of friends with infection. They are probably a couple of weeks behind Exeter, Nottingham, Newcastle and Leeds.

@MarshaBradyo
as someone who frequently derails: sorry.

The problem is that this bunch of ppl here are intelligent, able to argue as adults as a group. School threads are littered with non-scientific mindset, tinfoil hat, but my child.... people. I personally enjoyed hearing valid arguments on these points.
(but I'll try to refrain, as you are right.)

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@MarshaBradyo
as someone who frequently derails: sorry.

The problem is that this bunch of ppl here are intelligent, able to argue as adults as a group. School threads are littered with non-scientific mindset, tinfoil hat, but my child.... people. I personally enjoyed hearing valid arguments on these points.
(but I'll try to refrain, as you are right.)[/quote]
Oh no go ahead schools in general are fine. But I find the my dc / my relative story is this therefore all should be or are, really wearing.

I like this thread as it orders my thoughts in a more rational manner. I think a lot of people appreciate it.

@Piggywaspushed

I can't find it now already but there were some results that showed there was a higher incidence of covid in children of healthcare staff. This was sued to suggest transmission went from adult to child, although someone (Ferguson I think ) took exception to that at the time. It was definitely the case that many of the children had no to very mild symptoms, and I think that is where the info about stomach upsets came from.

I put that in the small studies thread, where they also looked at what symptoms they were presenting with, very interesting.

@BigChocFrenzy

In Pillar 2, with the man in 90% of cases being the higher earner, many families might decide not to risk losing that income during isolation if positive, but could cope with an SAHM or much lower earning pt woman isolating.

The problem with that logic is that if the woman tested positive, the man would still have to self isolate so it would be an argument against women getting tested as well as men.

Another case in DH's schools. Same year group, so now an outbreak. The head said PHE have now conceded (perhaps not in public messaging) that covid is endemic in schools.

Still no official child cases in my school, however.

Thanks, MRex, this makes more sense than the Scottish approach.

It’s not about being unfair it’s about what would be accepted.

This is not how government works. If we only built incinerators, landfill sites or composting facilities where the local community accepted them, we wouldn't have any.

Many people were against masks in shops, but they were imposed. Speed limits, mobile phone bans when driving etc.

Where you want people to change their behaviour some degree of buy in is necessary but giving extra money to schools for SD? They could just do this.

@IloveJKRowling and @TheSunIsStillShining @Piggywaspushed I do feel a sense of immense fustration about schools. And the schools threads do seem to be only person and very ‘it’s all great and fine’ or ‘it is all awful’ without the evidence and data driven discussions that THANKFULLY (thank you so much everyone esp @BigChocFrenzy) that exists on this thread.

My fustration is that the data and evidence about schools is being squashed and we are continually told ‘there is nothing to see here’. My two children are in school + university. A third of French clusters are in school and university. Plenty of evidence of aerosol transmission now however schools are not even simply opening windows regularly (and opening them plus doors during break times) and teachers not wearing masks. These two things - based on the evidence - would help massively.

JK you are asking for extra funding for your school for TAs to fill extra space. It’s not going to happen.

numbers down slightly to 14162. Not exactly good but i suppose better than a jump to 16k+ which is what I was expecting .