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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

996 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 30/09/2020 01:15

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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OP posts:
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65
littleowl1 · 05/10/2020 05:48

Oh thank you @Frazzled2207. I missed that. I will go back and find it.

Timeforanotherusername · 05/10/2020 06:47

Its not necessarily a statement failure.

If there is a bug in the code that means that certain data that should be included is not picked up, then it wouldn't necessarily be fail.

That said, i would have expected some checks, even manual to ensure data is correct.

It also depends on where in the process it went wrong. That could mean 'checks' are done bit don't identify a problem.

On the other hand, it is easy to blame an IT system............

Timeforanotherusername · 05/10/2020 06:47

*system

LivinLaVidaLoki · 05/10/2020 06:58

I do lurk on these threads quite a bit, so just wanted to say thank you all.
This reporting error has got me feeling a bit despondent now.
So govt have missed the opportunity to track and trace 15k cases.....
How can they still not have this right 8 months in???? We are never getting out of this as long as they continue to guff it up, yet they have the absolute nerve to tell us we are in this mess because we aren't behaving.
They're a bloody disgrace.

NeurotrashWarrior · 05/10/2020 07:03

A huge fuck up is that there are and were existing nhs systems designed to connect gps and testing and results and communication of epidemiology.

A friend's father was very high up in setting and looking at all this. He helped with setting up lab systems for the nightingales, though technically retired. He's furious with the government and current system.

PrayingandHoping · 05/10/2020 07:33

Gov minister on bbc just confirmed that while everyone knows if they tested positive, no the contacts would not have been traced and that will be done straight away

🤦🏼‍♀️

I hope whoever was in charge of this mess gets the sack.... oh no... unlikely. That SNP MP hasn't even been sacked!!! 😡

everythingthelighttouches · 05/10/2020 07:40

Just popping on to say thank you to TheSunIsStillShining for your expertise and explanation.

We are very fortunate to have you on this thread.

Another one to add to my list of people on here who should be in charge!

And it really does add to the point that what the government are doing is just not good enough.

Yes it’s hard but those in the know understand how badly the government have dealt with so many aspects of the pandemic.

SistemaAddict · 05/10/2020 07:42

Holly crap. Stockport has doubled in less than a week and look at Manchester! What the hell is going on? Stockport rates cant be explained by students as the colleges here are attended by locals as FE.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21
Timeforanotherusername · 05/10/2020 07:42

praying they don't have the power to sack the SNP.

The SNP have went as far as they can and withdrawn the whip. Sturgeon has been clear she should resign.

The only thing we can hope for is that her constituents can do a recall petition.

But its a completely different situation.

GetAMoveOnTroodon · 05/10/2020 07:42

The SNP have done all they can do to that MP, there is no mechanism for sacking an MP - they have to resign

Timeforanotherusername · 05/10/2020 07:43

Sack the MP - not the SNP party!

Really should preview!

GetAMoveOnTroodon · 05/10/2020 07:44

@SistemaAddict - that table also somewhat calls into question the line that the local decisions were made with all the case data (including the missing ones). Clearly not!

Littlebelina · 05/10/2020 07:44

@PrayingandHoping

Gov minister on bbc just confirmed that while everyone knows if they tested positive, no the contacts would not have been traced and that will be done straight away

🤦🏼‍♀️

I hope whoever was in charge of this mess gets the sack.... oh no... unlikely. That SNP MP hasn't even been sacked!!! 😡

She has had the whip withdrawn, a full sacking of an mp is not easy (otherwise I think Nicola would have doneit) If it she gets prosecuted her constituency can start the recall procedure.

However given the situation and her comments over Cummings you'd hope she'd have the integrity to resign.

Hmmph · 05/10/2020 08:07

My educated guess is that they cut corners at the beginning because of speed and then never went back to fixing them. Patches on patches.. you know how it works

This sounds entirely plausible.

PrayingandHoping · 05/10/2020 08:09

I know they have taken measures, they don't go far enough.... the fact an MP can break the law and put the public's health at risk and NOT be sacked shows the system is lacking!!!

And there is an underlying reason NS is reluctant to do more.... her majority.

GetAMoveOnTroodon · 05/10/2020 08:09

Liverpool and Knowsley now have rates at over 400 per 100k. I can’t help but feel that those leaked local lockdown plans are heading our way

PrayingandHoping · 05/10/2020 08:09

IMO she shouldn't have the opportunity to gracefully resign. It's lacking.

Timeforanotherusername · 05/10/2020 08:15

Praying Sturgeon can't do more. She really can't.

And would it be right if a party could sack a MP elected by constituents.

Everyone wants her to resign I'm sure and Sturgeon has been clearer that most party leaders would have been.

But the fact remains she can only be forced out if her constituents get the numbers on a petition to recall her and then it goes to a by election.

But they can only do that if Criminal conviction U believe.

GingerLemonTea · 05/10/2020 08:16

NS can’t sack her as she is an elected official.

PrayingandHoping · 05/10/2020 08:22

Is it right for an elected official who has broken the law (and yes that step has first to be proven but in this case it's black and white and she admits it) to be sacked from parliament? Absolutely IMO! There's a line.... and she crossed it.

Littlebelina · 05/10/2020 08:26

@Timeforanotherusername

Praying Sturgeon can't do more. She really can't.

And would it be right if a party could sack a MP elected by constituents.

Everyone wants her to resign I'm sure and Sturgeon has been clearer that most party leaders would have been.

But the fact remains she can only be forced out if her constituents get the numbers on a petition to recall her and then it goes to a by election.

But they can only do that if Criminal conviction U believe.

or a breach of parliamentary stds leading to suspension from the House or fiddling expenses.

NS has essentially sacked her from the party which is all she can do. If (when) MF is found guilty of a criminal offence her constituency (who elected/employed her) have the chance to remove her. Even in seemingly clear cut cases like this, the correct legal process must be follows. If a political party could sack an mp outright it would be open to abuse (removal of mps who are acting in best interests of their constituency against their party for example). I imagine it would have been used left right and centre during the Brexit vote.

I think MF should resign but also believe the current process for removing her is correct.

borntobequiet · 05/10/2020 08:33

@SistemaAddict

Holly crap. Stockport has doubled in less than a week and look at Manchester! What the hell is going on? Stockport rates cant be explained by students as the colleges here are attended by locals as FE.
FE is probably the riskiest educational setting, lacking the rigorous discipline and organisation that schools can provide and the autonomy that universities have (eg introducing their own testing regimes). FE pulls in learners from all sectors including risky ones such as care homes and construction. Bubbles are impossible to establish and monitor when you have day release and block release learners on irregular timetables. The sector is woefully underfunded so may struggle to provide adequate PPE. If local community transmission is high, it will be vastly amplified by FE.
TheSunIsStillShining · 05/10/2020 08:39

@everythingthelighttouches
Thank you Blush

RepeatSwan · 05/10/2020 08:42

@PrayingandHoping

Is it right for an elected official who has broken the law (and yes that step has first to be proven but in this case it's black and white and she admits it) to be sacked from parliament? Absolutely IMO! There's a line.... and she crossed it.
There are rules around this but people have to be found guilty first, and of an offence of a reasonable seriousness.

We all have to work to avoid the angry pitchfork mentality. She did something wrong. She will have consequences.

Let processes take place.

RedToothBrush · 05/10/2020 08:50

Dh has looked at the reported reason for the failure. Apparently the failure starts when a file size gets too big. He then worked out the file size per person and went 'what the fuck are they transferring?'

I asked what he meant and whether it they were keeping huge amounts of data on everyone. He said not necessarily. It was possibly just an indication of how badly programmed the whole thing is.

The basic issue here is how badly paid staff are and whether theyve got (non accountable) contract staff working on it.

His experience over the years has been that if you have a non technical person heading up important projects like this they tend to not have a fucking clue what they are doing and 'cut costs' all over the place (at greater cost further down the line when how bad the programming comes to light rears its head as it always does). Environments where you have good technical people at the top and you pay for quality staff then you get different results.

The basic problem is the sheer number of programmers who are better at bullshitting and company politics than they are programming. The overall quality is surprising low with key basic principles not drummed into people and instead the majority are lazy and deliberately avoid difficult shit.

He generally ends up being the person who comes in and clears up everyones shit.

My understanding is that this government (in particular more so than previous ones) have never understood the value of good hiring and paying well for IT projects.

Im not even slightly surprised at how catastrophically wrong track and trace has gone. Its why i kept DS off school when he could have gone back in June. I thought they might have sorted out problems with the system by September.

Clearly i was wrong.

The thing is the government has relied far too heavily on restrictions to slow transmission rates. And the public have got the blame for non compliance etc. But without a fully functioning AND fast track and trace then the restrictions are quite honestly, more or less little more than trying to mend a broken leg with sticky plasters.

I do wonder how fast the doubling rate will get too.

And i dont know how we will avoid either another full lockdown (which simply wont work after weeks or even months of local lockdown in the worst affected places) and/or a hospital melt down. Numbers now strike me as simply too high.

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