Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

With worldometer. At one point I think we were the only country with no published recovery figures (relating to hospitalised patients). Is that still the case?

Is anyone else feeling cold fury about all of this?

I'm feeling fury that none of this has been picked up by the press - or has it ...?

The first I've read about it has been here.

... It's not just the reading of data, it's also the commentary.

@SheepandCow the rise in female cases was a bit too soon to be due to schools though, iirc.

Yes I think it's still the case that we don't publish recovery rates.

We've not even hit badges weather yet. We are literally about plunge into it.

@AutumnleavesturntoGold

I don't trust any of them, nor in particular jenny harries or Patrick valance. I don't think they are capable of looking at graphs, figures or understanding basics.

I honestly feel more informed from threads like this.

.... However expert they are, if they are receiving the same incomplete data we are, then any graphs they look at would be wrong

We're going "Oh fuck"
but we don't have to make recommendations to the government that affect the whole country

Poor buggers have probably gone through a gallon of Gaviscol yesterday & today

BBC's reporting it now:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54412581

Big choc, I don't care, I have not got over p v assuring us that huge outdoor meets were ok then about 10 days later police were out harassing poor souls sunbathing alone in a park.
Jenny harries said school children didn't need masks because of the evidence that measures in place work. Ie all sat at forward facing desks, teachers standing away.

It's a crock of utter rubbish.
It's like they ate following the sat nav into a cup de sac even though they know its wrong but they have to follow the sat nav.

Ie common bloody sense had gone out the window.

@AutumnleavesturntoGold
I don't know about driving into a cul de sac, more like driving off a cliff.

@Augustbreeze
Sorry didn't read your post properly.
Yes I think you're right. I don't think it was related to school return.

So are today's 28 deaths correct?
It seems the Zoe figures are closer tobthe truth and the Zoe team, using their data, think cases are flattening.

That probably won't happen while deaths remain so low
More likely if deaths ever reach the 200 / day scenario that iirc Whitty mentioned

I agree, but that's going to result in a lot of poorly parents and teachers, and some children too. We know hospital admissions and deaths lag infections by many weeks.

This 'wait until deaths become intolerable' approach is exactly the same as what they did in March. You'd have hoped they might have learned a lesson or two this time around about being proactive in a public health crisis.

@OhTheRoses

So are today's 28 deaths correct? It seems the Zoe figures are closer tobthe truth and the Zoe team, using their data, think cases are flattening.

.... UK deaths 33

Deaths this week total 362, up from last week's 211

Graph from UK COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats:

is it possible (any reason possible?) that the powers that be wanted the numbers to appear to be lower so they didn't include some of the figures? & somebody accidently (on purpose) entered the all the figures.?
Honestly, you can almost believe this as the fact that the numbers are so mucked up seems so unlikely!

No, it's just software bugs
Cockup, not conspiracy

IT systems too hurriedly put together, not properly debugged - I wonder if this was inhouse or given out on another crony contract

the trouble is deaths don't come that "reliably" in a set time frame. It was obvious that university infections relate to the number & its more who the links are to the students & who the links links are (if you see what I mean).
Catering, tutors, cleaners admin etc coming in to contact to the students initially most of them are probably healthy youngish people but its who they have linked to et al or ad infinitum

@BigChocFrenzy thanks for info - & explanation
it doesn't give one any confidence on anything that they say though but its in line with the track & trace app not working (again)

Yes, but politically it would take
either a significant number of deaths to overcome the strong objections of most parents who don't want masks.
or staff absence to close a significant number of schools

.

@IloveJKRowling

*That probably won't happen while deaths remain so low More likely if deaths ever reach the 200 / day scenario that iirc Whitty mentioned*

I agree, but that's going to result in a lot of poorly parents and teachers, and some children too. We know hospital admissions and deaths lag infections by many weeks.

This 'wait until deaths become intolerable' approach is exactly the same as what they did in March. You'd have hoped they might have learned a lesson or two this time around about being proactive in a public health crisis.

Does anyone know how to work out how many weeks/months are we from, say, 200 deaths per day, at the current rate of increase?

I’m shocked. How quickly we are back into 10k per day cases territory.

Deaths this week total 362, up from last week's 211

That's up 70% in a week. If that growth rate continues next week will be 615 and then 1,045 the week after...

What I don't understand is how come there's been less resistance to masks in other countries, including European ones where, like us, there's never previously been a culture of mask wearing?

It could've been so different. A narrative of how fun masks could be. Encouraging kids (and adults) to customise theirs. Not to mention how useful for an ugly day (we all have them, don't we?).

I like this one.
www.zazzle.co.uk/funny_shark_mouth_cloth_face_mask-256768339377850862

Paris is closing bars and raising the alert to maximum. A friend who lives there says she knows so many people who have been infected in the last few weeks. She's awaiting results of a test herself after having lunch with a colleague who tested positive the next day.

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54413563