Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

"==> Question: Is this a problem with interfacing private test suppliers with the PHE / NHS system ?"

This is where I blow up. What the non-technical people don't understand is that when we are talking about databases--> they have specified fields. It is not a case of getting the wrong book down from the shelf by mistake.
If the API is calling for field, the accompanying system interfaced will return that. Not some other random field. You cannot lose data if databases (that have not been changed) communicate. It will mindlessly get that one field that it is supposed to. But if you are fucking around with json, xml or xls files because you were too lazy to do the apis this can easily happen.
Or if you input the data into some other field, obv it won't be picked up.
On the adding the numbers together algorithm: again: it is stupid as shit and will add up field1 + field2 if that is written in it. And it will fail if it doesn't get data. It won't fail in terms of not adding up numbers when yesterday it did.... So someone is not feeding it data.

Another scenario is that they did a release and it went sideways. With these type of systems there are certain industry standards that have been proven to work (parallel systems for example) and can be followed. It's not rocket science and they don't have to invent it!

@Hmmph
As a software designer/architect I have worked on a gov related (other country) financial data supersystem. And multiple medical systems as well. One of the things to cross off my list was to make sure to have a redundancy in case of a redundancy fallback plan. AND that there are multiple data validation points and error handling. NO, this should not have happened. At this level there is no room for error. These systems have to be designed and implemented and tested in a way that this can not happen. Medical systems I designed had to be 100% (not joking) data proofed and 99.9% availability. Both non-negotiable. And it is doable. There are protocols on how to do these. But let's be fair, these fuckers can't even appoint a proper software dev company to do their shit.

@littleowl1 I meant it!

Also meant to say earlier, I'd be happy to pay for your service, it's clear and I have confidence in it (about the only thing I do have confidence in at the moment).

Why is the BBC not talking about the implications of such a catastrophic data error for contact tracing? Surely this means at least in some areas we have nothing like an accurate picture and the virus is really getting out of control.

And still no compulsory masks in schools. In the Indie Sage report on schools www.independentsage.org/consultation_schools_aug2020/

p.4 they say schools 10-50 cases per 100k should have class sizes no more than 15, masks in secondary all the time. Over 50 per 100k, in addition, masks in primary schools. A lot of the UK is now at that over 50 per 100k mark and the rest at the 10-50 mark (is there anywhere lower than 10 now?).

Schools going back as they currently are with no social distancing, large class sizes indoors in small spaces, really relies on low levels in the community and good test and trace and we have neither.

No thanks!

Sorry - what are the figures for today?

Why are 3rd October figures still on the Guardian?

And why is the Worldometer still blank for the UK?

@jessstan1

No thanks!

To what?

@everythingthelighttouches

From the full daily cases data file in the about the data section of the dashboard. Simply compared yesterday’s pivot with one run on the data finally published for today.

Manchester 1054
Leeds 968
Liverpool 899
Nottingham 652
Sheffield 639
Newcastle 625
Brum 528
Bradford 515
County Durham 446
Sunderland 347
Sefton 319
Knowsley 302
Salford 267
Kirklees. 264
Wigan 258
Wirral 246
Bolton 230
Rochdale 221
Stockport 221
Northumberland 207
Trafford 199
Bury 196
Cheshire East 192
North Tyneside 190
Oldham 190
Tameside 183
Leicester 181

Which together account for 50%

@Hmmph

There’s not much point in T&T the older cases now surely? If someone got a positive result on 25 Sept, giving the time spent getting a test and getting results - say 3 days- the 14 days have pretty much passed now.

.... it's tracing contacts to check for spreading outbreaks

Are we really to believe this didn't affect recent decisions on local lockdowns?

the data is bad, track and trace failures are even worse than we realised - but once over the shock remember hospital admissions are not yet racing up so hopefully these are, at the moment, largely cases in young people who are not being seriously affected.

It does mean harsher restrictions may be needed because we dont have an adequate track and trace system.

This government and their incompetent pals are an economic disaster.

Do I understand correctly?

We don't know when a lot of newly-reported cases actually tested positive. So we don't know how quickly the rate of positive tests is increasing.

We don't know the percentage of false negatives. Beyond 'so-and-so think it's about ...'

We don't know the percentage of false positives.

We don't know how many true positives are actually picking up infective Covid RNA rather than RNA that the testee's immune system has de-activated (recently, or some time ago).

Do we know what this 'world beating' testing system is costing?

@littleowl1
I posted a graphic yesterday after cockup part 1 which suggested a couple of hundred of these extra cases actually come from ages ago, stretching back as far as March

Is anyone else feeling cold fury about all of this? I can't even begin to imagine my response if I hear any of my friends doing the "Ah well, it's unprecedented and Boris and his chums is doing his best and no technology is perfect" apologist routine. World beating indeed.

TheSun I wondered if some private labs at some stage might have lost access to the PHE / NHS databases (or even never had it)

Before retiring, I worked a lot with suppliers / subsidiaries / partners and we were all supposed to have seamless read & write access to certain common techy databases and platforms

At times, one or the other would be shut out and if we'd been careless it could have take a while to notice !

"why is the Worldometer still blank for the UK?"

They are probably still staring at their screens in bewilderment like the rest of us

@BigChocFrenzy
You have to 😂.....

I wonder how tempted they were to just leave them down the back of the sofa and put a cushion over it.

Agree it’s probably better to look at hospital admissions.

"And still no compulsory masks in schools"

That probably won't happen while deaths remain so low
More likely if deaths ever reach the 200 / day scenario that iirc Whitty mentioned - or of course if a large minority of staff and / or parents stay home, whether isolating or "isolating"

I look at this fuck up and wonder why the hell I am waving my children off to school tomorrow

I don't trust any of them, nor in particular jenny harries or Patrick valance. I don't think they are capable of looking at graphs, figures or understanding basics.

I honestly feel more informed from threads like this.

Well, that looks like a shit show and clearly we can't rely on the positive case numbers for risk assessment on a daily basis.

Does anyone know if hospitalisations by age are available anywhere?

I'd like to see what the rates are for children and for adults of working/parenting age, since schools have gone back.

Whether you trust the posters here or Whitty et al more seems irrelevant when they are all working with data that seems totally unreliable

Someone explain something to me as I’m confused did they announce over 20k today ( aware of over 12k yesterday ) and the screw up but surely even with screw up this weeks numbers have really gone up ??

Yes, even if you take away the 15,841 cases from the total over the two days of the weekend, it's looking like we've now had our fourth day of 10k+ positive cases.

Yes, the daily numbers have genuinely increased,

10,000 since 30 September, approaching 12,000 on 2 October;
with data for 3-4 October incomplete

The rise in cases did not level off, as we all thought was happening with the old - incomplete - figures

@MotherOfDragonite

Well, that looks like a shit show and clearly we can't rely on the positive case numbers for risk assessment on a daily basis.

Does anyone know if hospitalisations by age are available anywhere?

I'd like to see what the rates are for children and for adults of working/parenting age, since schools have gone back.

I don't know if things have changed, but a couple of weeks ago the media were reporting on an increase in women aged 20-40 being hospitalised for Covid.