Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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And what happened on 28th September. It was low and apparently is the only one that has none added to it. That doesn't add up to me.

Quite.

50% of the cases added in England from just 27 council areas.

100 council areas account for 80%

At the other end the lowest 100 council area account for less than 5%. Though that is still over 1000 cases.

Those may still be revised up (through the normal process) and, unfortunately, they appear much higher than most people personally anticipated

But they are closer to the surveys, showing reliability in those, and that a good proportion are being detected. Previously there was a bigger question about those reports, or that very few cases were picked up. 1 in 20ish cases being picked up seems pretty good, and a lot better than in 1 in 40 that it was before these updates?

Funny how this only came out when trump is dominating headlines.

boys3

And do you know which 27 councils these are?

Or can you point me to your source?

I’m going to look up my own area and see whether we have the slightest clue here....

I can't believe that there is STILL no mention on the BBC News website! There appears to be even more game-playing going on than originally thought - and the bar was already pretty high!

And thats all the BBC are really reporting on is Trump @DressingGownofDoom.
BBC do seem a lot more political then other news outlets.

This is a fucking shambles. How can anyone have any faith in this system anymore now?

First priority is sorting it out and then heads need to roll...

@Pebble21uk

I can't believe that there is STILL no mention on the BBC News website! There appears to be even more game-playing going on than originally thought - and the bar was already pretty high!

Its been mentioned on the BBC news

And its a Sunday. Its always slow to update on a Sunday. Other news pages too.

I can guess where they come from... south east northumberland, newcastle and surrounding areas

Given the north west has had over 3000 cases and the north east 900 and odd I would guess it’s the north west that has taken the brunt of them? (I didn’t drill down beyond regional level)

What this boils down to is that new cases have been > 10,000 for the last 5 days
Nearing 12,000 from 2 October

Are there more big surprises to come when PHE rummage again at the back of their sofa, or is this it ?

I was hoping it was just a software bug in collating numbers for the official daily totals
However, now we are told that track & trace did not receive data on these missing cases, some going back to mid-Sept
So this system bug transferring test data from labs to central reporting data would also have resulted in some people not knowing they had close contact with an infected person and hence infections being spread

==> Question: Is this a problem with interfacing private test suppliers with the PHE / NHS system ?

@Shitfuckoh
I had a bit of a struggle trying to work it out too, @Witchend figures were quite useful. If I’ve calculated correctly then we’re on a 7 day rolling average of 9364 cases.

I asked DH about the explanation as this is his area of expertise (he does this integration stuff as his job)

If there is a problem with the data format for any reason (ie wrong thing in wrong column), then they won’t load. He said this is a common error when transferring large amounts of data from different sources.

However, they should be running it in such a way that they get a report of data not transferred so they can check. This isn’t done if you are cutting corners.

He said it’s not a mistake the Government should be making. Definitely incompetence.

I thought there might be others who didn’t understand integration of data and what might have gone wrong.

Anyone got a pic of the Whitty/Vallance graph overlaid with this new data?

Sorry just realised we've already had it.

Manchester is worst hit I think.

@IloveJKRowling gosh your post put a right big smile on my face! What a lovely thing to say!

Tomorrow morning after I send out the morning emails I’m going to update that council allocation table I circulated midday today. It’s linked from the home page for anyone looking for it - www.covidmessenger.com - click any of the links saying “jump to the five data corrections”.

Im somewhat relieved that the correction now appears to be over at least. I felt such a sense of foreboding with this huge unknown volume of positive tests waiting to be released. At least it’s done now.

Oh and by the way sky news have a decent article up now about the data correction. And the wording is interesting - the corrections for 25 Sept - 2 Oct they refer to are by reporting date. They haven’t specified the date range for the corrections when considered by specimen date. Which presumably will pre-date the 25th.

I’m going to check tomorrow. But my guess is, that when viewed by specimen date, the date window for the corrections is a bit longer than 25th-2nd so the upward adjustment might (I hope) be a bit smoother than a sudden dump of 15k cases over 8 days.

Just popping on to add to the general 'what the actual fuck' feeling about these missing cases...

So much for the plateau

Richard@RP131 reports the 7 day rolling average is up by 2.3 to 51.7

Richard@RP131 reports the 7 day rolling average of UK deaths is up by 2.3 to 51.7

August

There’s not much point in T&T the older cases now surely? If someone got a positive result on 25 Sept, giving the time spent getting a test and getting results - say 3 days- the 14 days have pretty much passed now.

I didn't even think of that.
There's been contacts of those 15k confirmed positive cases just going about their lives, not knowing they should be isolating.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/04/leak-reveals-possible-harsher-three-tier-covid-plan-for-england

I thought it was interesting that this was "leaked" earlier......

And then the new numbers.

Incompetence on this scale plus this leak is making me feel somewhat hinky.