Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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The Guardian has this breakdown:

Public Health England provided a breakdown of how many cases were not included in each day’s figures, which are as follows:

957 cases were not included on September 25, when the original figure given was 6,874
744 on September 26, when the original figure given was 6,042
757 on September 27, when the original figure given was 5,693
none on September 28, when the original figure given was 4,044
1,415 on September 29, when the original figure given was 7,143
3,049 on September 30, when the original figure given was 7,108
4,133 on October 1, when the original figure given was 6,914
4,786 on October 2, when the original figure given was 6,968

So we can see that, at its worst, it meant that nearly 5,000 cases were missing from daily totals.

Sorry, I meant the thread is good & the people who organise it are excellent . The numbers are not so good...

Its not actually definite that local PH didn't have correct numbers.

It could quite simply be a bug in the script that is used to compile numbers centrally.

Obviously it may not be that, but most applications will have bugs in them.

😭

@everythingthelighttouches

This is a breakdown by date from RP131 on twitter

Does anyone else look at that and just think it's slow processing of test results? There's barely any results for specimens taken yesterday and the rest could just be backlogged processing over the last 7 days.

That break down looks even worse as it looks like we are now into the 10,000 + positive daily tests

That’s a shambles

It was reaching the point of more missing than there!

I bet this still doesnt include unis.

How was vallances prediction now?
Also them saying we arecso many weeks behind other countries seems wrong. (Although we may have more immunity)

11,000 + even

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/04/coronavirus-live-news-donald-trump-us-election-covid-19-europe?page=with:block-5f7a376a8f080b5d569e4f1b#block-5f7a376a8f080b5d569e4f1b

They're just transferring these results to Track and trace now..... In another article it says that some of the cases being passed over date back to mid September.

@LarkDescending

The Guardian has this breakdown:

Public Health England provided a breakdown of how many cases were not included in each day’s figures, which are as follows:

957 cases were not included on September 25, when the original figure given was 6,874
744 on September 26, when the original figure given was 6,042
757 on September 27, when the original figure given was 5,693
none on September 28, when the original figure given was 4,044
1,415 on September 29, when the original figure given was 7,143
3,049 on September 30, when the original figure given was 7,108
4,133 on October 1, when the original figure given was 6,914
4,786 on October 2, when the original figure given was 6,968

So we can see that, at its worst, it meant that nearly 5,000 cases were missing from daily totals.

So 25th Sept total 7831 and 2nd Oct is now at total of 11754? So 3923 'increase' in a week.

Personally I think they are talking shit, just dont want to admit cases are rising that fast to avoid a second lockdown 🤷‍♀️ otherwise they will be forced to admit they cocked up with re opening things. I'd live to be proven wrong.

And why isn't this hitting headlines? Like last night, it seems to be being ignored?

Cynically I wonder if there is some time cut off for newspapers / tv / radio news reporting and this is why they've published so late. But surely it should still be news tomorrow?

It's difficult not to get cynical with numbers like this. Either they're doing it deliberately, which isn't good, or they're utterly incompetent, also not good.

And yes, where are all the decent journalists, they should be all over this.

Not feeling too happy about sending my kids to school tomorrow until I know how this feeds through to local numbers - even then my confidence in the numbers recedes daily. Can we put @littleowl1 in charge of it all instead and give her Dido Harding's salary?

*passed over the T&T I mean

I think it is wrong to focus on the 22,000 number. It is clear it does not reflect the number of positive tests identified on a single day. We can complain about the reporting but mistakes do happen.

What is concerning is the magnitude of the actual positive tests by specimen date reported for Sep 28 - Oct 1 for England. Those may still be revised up (through the normal process) and, unfortunately, they appear much higher than most people personally anticipated. I am hoping there is some further context associated with those numbers (e.g. student testing) but for now it is definitely an area of concern.

@WhyNotMe40

Wtf. Surely they can't be this incompetent? It has to be a strategy of some sort surely?

.... Bad news; they really are this incompetent

@IloveJKRowling
I'm feeling the same way regarding school tomorrow - Mine are attending 2 different schools & a nursery.

I agree @Dementedswan

It's being discussed on News at 10 now...

FatGirlShrinking
Slow processing, yes that’s what it looks like to me.

Although someone else here said it was a bug in the system integrating the data centrally (I think? This is not my area of expertise)

Now the question is are they done?

Or is there more of this to come??

For example, tomorrow, will another 3000 be added to Friday’s figures???

September 25, original figure 6,874 now 7831
September 26, original figure 6,042 now 6786
September 27, original figure 5,693 now 6450
September 28, original figure 4,044 now 4044
September 29, original figure 7,143 now 8558
September 30, original figure 7,108 now 10 157
October 1, original figure 6,914 now 11 047
October 2, original figure 6,968 now 11 754

So a definite progression upwards. So much for the statements of over the peak on Friday.
And what happened on 28th September. It was low and apparently is the only one that has none added to it. That doesn't add up to me. If it was a computer error, surely it wouldn't have been fine on that one date.

And the main news about it seems to be that we're over 500k rather than the daily figures have almost doubled in the week, and we weren't aware due to an error.

Funny how they're always "artificially high" and never artificially low
I'm concerned. Am ECV, and in Lancashire

Radio 4 are covering it right now!

@everythingthelighttouches

FatGirlShrinking Slow processing, yes that’s what it looks like to me.

Although someone else here said it was a bug in the system integrating the data centrally (I think? This is not my area of expertise)

Now the question is are they done?

Or is there more of this to come??

For example, tomorrow, will another 3000 be added to Friday’s figures???

I hope not as 3000 added to Friday's figures means cases would doubled from the 7 days prior!

Feeling nervous about how high daily reported figures will be from here on, even without the added 'artificially high'.

Salford gone from 154/100k to 255/100k
In a week!

It isn’t slow processing - these are diagnosed cases which were lost in the system and thus not included in published figures or in contact tracing procedures.