Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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Cases are slowly rising, so I have roughly planned my own precautions in addition to official advice / laws that may come: If they rise > 20/100,000 locally I'll just have takeaway; > 35 / 100,000 or earlier - just online shopping; > 50 / 100,000 or earlier - stop gym

Thanks for sharing this BigChoc I find this very useful.

I still haven't decided at what level to take my younger child (who legally does not yet need to be in school - she's preschool age) out of school. I'm thinking maybe the 50/100k level. I don't want to jeopardise the older one's place so stuck sending her in for much longer I think, probably until her bubble closes. Several local schools have already had cases and closed bubbles so think it's a matter of time.

The problem is with trusting the figures. One area adjacent to us is over 50/100k but ours is still hovering around the 20 mark, though will have to see what the recently discovered cases does to it.

DCs school tend to get the spray in December. It's a neighbouring health authority who do it so wonder if that's why its so late.

Hope its earlier this year as a large part of the catchment area is pretty deprived so really portent the kids get it sooner rather than later.

We are still waiting for Reception screening. Not sure when that will happen (He's Y1 now). Not so worried about weight but would like eye test and hearing test, especially the latter as he is under SALT.

[quote Pertella]@UKCovid19stats has the hospital figures. Its showing 371 - yesterday was 368.

So is that an additional 371?

Also, what has caught my eye is the wording - total admissions and diagnosis whilst in hospital. To me this implies that there are people in hospital for other reasons who just happen to have covid included in the hospital admissions figures, it isn't just people who are ill enough from covid to require hospitalisation?[/quote]
....
That's new daily admissions

@Pertella - Generally ICU rates are rising proportionally, but if someone is in hospital for other reasons and also has covid, their recovery might be impaired. I can't see any obvious reason to exclude them. Continuing to include them after they've recovered from covid but remain in hospital for something else wouldn't make sense, but I believe Scotland has stopped doing that now.

Yes Pertella, anyone who is in hospital for another cause counts as an admission the day after they test positive for coronavirus

To me this implies that there are people in hospital for other reasons who just happen to have covid included in the hospital admissions figures, it isn't just people who are ill enough from covid to require hospitalisation?

Absolutely, remember the 18-24 year olds in some areas are more than 1% positive, so if any of those end up in hospital for a car accident or similar then they'll still be tested (to know if they're going to spread it to others)

It would be useful to have those admissions broken down between suspected covid and unrelated but tested positive but obviously most people who go into hospital do not want covid at the same time so it possibly doesn't matter too much that they're combined.

I booked my flu jab online yesterday with my GP - my MIL asked if I had had mine yet (I'm under 65 and asthmatic) so I checked my GP's Twitter and they had said U65s normally eligible could now book their jab.

I usually get a text to tell me to book one, or I get offered the jab during my asthma review but the latter haven't been taking place due to Covid and I haven't had a text or letter.

Anyone who normally gets one but hasn't had the letter- worth checking your surgery website/social media/patient access to see if appointments are available. My surgery has kept it very quiet!

@CaptainMerica

Yes, I tried to book one via boots today, and the website said they were suspending bookings, due to high demand.

Which is good, I guess? As long as all the people who really need it can get via the GP.

More people are presenting at gp who have always been entitled but not taken it up before

All those entitled won't be able to get from their gp... surgeries order their stock at start of year. So people deciding this year they DO want it when usually they decline has messed it all up

Even tbe wording for ICU cases is odd - patients in a bed capable of mechanical ventilators. Not patients requiring ventilation?

Does being in ICU always mean you are on a ventilator? Iirc boris was in icu but not ventilated?

Just seems a bit ambiguous to me.

Still no numbers. What gets me regarding the statement yesterday is that the numbers will apparently be “higher than normal” for several days. Surely if they found them down the metaphorical back of the sofa they would know how many not need days to find them all.
Robert peston has just tweeted that all these lost numbers will NOT have been through the T&T system which is deeply worrying if true. I wonder if they found tens of thousands and thought better to spread them out rather than publish them all on a certain day 😱. I would have thought best to get the bad news out of the way in one go personally.

Whatever the truth, confidence in test and trace must be waning dramatically.

Each of us needs to make our own risk assessment, remembering that for almost everyone the dominant risk factor is age

I'm not sure how useful my personal decisions are to most people on this thread,
as I am 64, retired, living alone, no close relatives,
so - despite normal BMI and being a fit gym rat - in a much higher risk category and different living situation to nearly all of you
==> my WOL may be over-cautious for most of you

btw, I'm not sure of the relative risk of a younger person who is ECV vs an older person
Obviously if a 30-year-old has 10 x the normal risk for their age, they need to take extra care,
but that would give them a " COVID age" of a 50-year old

Would they still be classed as ECV on review ?

I wonder if ECV is based on say 20% risk of death (~ someone of 85)
or on their "Covid age" reaching the vulnerable limit of say 60 or 65
or on the multiples of risk compared to someone of the same age, say 10 x

==> Anyone know the criteria for ECV, whether it includes age and whether it has been standardised across the NHS ?

More people are presenting at gp who have always been entitled but not taken it up before

I got it always at work as it was just easier. I know a number of people entitled to the NHS jab but received it at work. With whf, I think a lot more will go to Gp than to end OH nurse

@Pertella

Even tbe wording for ICU cases is odd - patients in a bed capable of mechanical ventilators. Not patients requiring ventilation?

Does being in ICU always mean you are on a ventilator? Iirc boris was in icu but not ventilated?

Just seems a bit ambiguous to me.

... No, you can be in ICU for more intense treatment / observation and never go on a ventilator

Why are the daily figures so late?

@Frazzled2207

Still no numbers. What gets me regarding the statement yesterday is that the numbers will apparently be “higher than normal” for several days. Surely if they found them down the metaphorical back of the sofa they would know how many not need days to find them all. Robert peston has just tweeted that all these lost numbers will NOT have been through the T&T system which is deeply worrying if true. I wonder if they found tens of thousands and thought better to spread them out rather than publish them all on a certain day 😱. I would have thought best to get the bad news out of the way in one go personally.

Whatever the truth, confidence in test and trace must be waning dramatically.

It may be more to do with processing them to the correct areas etc. If they've been found unprocessed, then they may need entering onto the computer, or moving from one place to another, which can just take time.

I'd have thought they would have been better to say "oops forgot some, we've just updated the total and will backdate them, so you may notice they've changed-a bit like worldometre did."

My dad used to say "never attribute to malicious intention what you can attribute to incompetence".
I think from what I can see in this case incompetence is more likely.

Robert Pestonn@Peston*

Obviously this shows there was a gradual rise in Covid-19 infections in recent days rather than the levelling off we had been seeing.

But here is the mystery.

Test and Trace tell me there has NOT been a significant increase in the gap between individuals having...
a test and receiving their results.

But there has been a huge leap in the lag between the test and it showing on the http:///Gov.UKK dashboard.
And no one can explain why.
This is troubling

@Witchend
yes makes sense. But if it was a case of finding lots of numbers down the back of the sofa they should have come clean with the number IMO even if they weren't clear which area they should be attributed to

Goldistheanswer

"Why are the daily figures so late?"

So people miss them.

My elderly shielding ECV mother cannot get a flu jab because her doctors have decided all flu jabs are going to be done at a drive through site ten miles away and she lives alone and cannot drive. They have no plans for those who cannot get there. I could in theory drive her there, but that would involve her being in an enclosed car with me for well over half an hour and I have children at two schools and interact with a lot of the public as a job, so would be putting her at significant risk. I am very cross with the GP’s attitude.

=> Anyone know the criteria for ECV, whether it includes age and whether it has been standardised across the NHS ?
It doesn't include age, although age in itself can put someone into the vulnerable category.
I have multiple health issues and am 62. I was told to shield by letter but not told why. It could have been the cancer antibody treatment, it could have been the autoimmune drugs or it could have been the lung condition.
I've followed anything about ecv since March.
The ecv criteria were rushed out initially and based on condition/ diagnosis. It has been refined somewhat since then. Definition here.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19#definition

My understanding is that there was to be a review of all children classed as ecv as with more knowledge of the disease the vast majority were not actually at as much risk as first thought.
I want to know whether the same will be done for adults.

@Pertella

Even tbe wording for ICU cases is odd - patients in a bed capable of mechanical ventilators. Not patients requiring ventilation?

Does being in ICU always mean you are on a ventilator? Iirc boris was in icu but not ventilated?

Just seems a bit ambiguous to me.

It may depend on your hospital trust. When my daughter was in ICU last year ALL the patients were intubated. As soon as you were extubated you were moved into HDU.

@Hmmph Any local pharmacies? As she is entitled to an NHS jab they will vaccinate her if they can get stock.

@Hmmph

My elderly shielding ECV mother cannot get a flu jab because her doctors have decided all flu jabs are going to be done at a drive through site ten miles away and she lives alone and cannot drive. They have no plans for those who cannot get there. I could in theory drive her there, but that would involve her being in an enclosed car with me for well over half an hour and I have children at two schools and interact with a lot of the public as a job, so would be putting her at significant risk. I am very cross with the GP’s attitude.

Will a nurse not do it for her in practise?

My surgery were doing it In there car park but the decision was taken with the nurse it was better for my daughter and I to have our own regular appointment with the nurse (mainly I think because a baby has a special dose obv and it was prob easier for them!)

@Hmmph

My elderly shielding ECV mother cannot get a flu jab because her doctors have decided all flu jabs are going to be done at a drive through site ten miles away and she lives alone and cannot drive. They have no plans for those who cannot get there. I could in theory drive her there, but that would involve her being in an enclosed car with me for well over half an hour and I have children at two schools and interact with a lot of the public as a job, so would be putting her at significant risk. I am very cross with the GP’s attitude.

... Ridiculous That GP is putting their "system" ahead of the clear needs of at least one of their patients

I imagine a tidy % of those eligible for flu jab won't drive!