Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Chap on Beeb just now was anticipating 13000.

One of my friends is a surgeon in an area of high risk and deals with very vulnerable patients, he has been tested weekly since the summer. So it’s not consistent across all hospitals

@Piggywaspushed

Chap on Beeb just now was anticipating 13000.

We've been prepared for a few days (at least) of higher figures but I'd really like to know exactly how this happened. Is this why the extra restrictions were brought in & what the last press conference was about? Because the government had these figures available to them but hadn't yet released them (for some reason...) to the public?

@ceeveebee

I think this means the map is wrong? When I add up all the cases for my borough for the past week (to 29 September) from the map, it comes to 299 cases but the total for the same period on the dashboard is 334. So think the cases have not been allocated by MSOA which makes the map a bit useless... (There are more than 3 cases in every MSOA in my borough so it’s not because of the 0-2 cases thing)

They have updated the MSOA map and backing spreadsheet and this now seems to reflect the new restated figures for the last 7 days (total on the spreadsheet for the most recent 7 days tallies pretty much exactly with the reported figures by specimen date now) so that’s helpful at least. Seems the data analysts have had a busy weekend!

Big choc

The fresh air and sun makes so much sense. I was incensed with our idiotic view to stop people in cities from the sunbathing, alone with no one around them having to, endure a patronising chat with police, which of course put them at more risk of catching corona than sunbathing.

Merkel has issued something recently to say keep windows open, reduce viral load, its free to do, air rooms.

*FLU JAB I had mine today as pre booked by boots. Quick and easy.
By contrast my elderly friend cannot get one through his doctors!

@AnyFucker

DH works as a hospital consultant. His trust have just announced that if anyone tests positive they are not allowed to give track and trace the details of any members of staff they’ve been in close contact with as they can’t risk having any more staff off isolating. So they are willingly putting staff and patients at risk! I’m so angry that this is how they’re reacting to the increased pressures in the NW

The hospital trusts get around this by saying that all staff should be wearing PPE so it shouldn't be possible to pass the virus on to each other. Make of that what you will.

Similar argument at my university - we should wear (basic) masks indoors and never come within 2 metres of students or staff for more than 15 minutes, therefore we won't need to self isolate if one of the students we teach in poorly ventilated semi social distanced rooms for 1-2 hours at a stretch come down with symptoms.

@Piggywaspushed my GP surgery has finished their flu vaccinations. They have done all those eligible (except the 50-65) with the stock they had.

I had mine friday alongside my baby. The nurse told me they order them in February based on what demand they had the year before. So the dramatic increase in demand and the 50-65 was not foreseen.

They will now wait for additional to be allocated out through the CCG but they have no control as to how much they will be given.

The message is, don't wait for your GP. If you can find some in your chemist/supermarket. Get it there! Currently they are taking nhs appointments from what I've seen but not private.

I’d love to know how many other trusts are doing the same (re non-isolation) as I can’t imagine they’re the only one. I’m all up for forwarding the email to the Guardian, but DH doesn’t want it getting back to him as he already has a reputation as a trouble-maker over covid. He refused to work on the covid ward without a proper mask (he’s ECV due to severe asthma and should never have even been in a covid ward but that’s another story) right at the start of it all and the management have been a nightmare ever since.

Hospital admissions for England are out. The numbers are flattish (371 on 2/10 vs 368 on 1/10) which is reasonably good news.

The London number is back to a more reasonable level - 37 (vs 50 reported yesterday).

The MSOA file covered 23-29th yesterday as the latest 7 day period, and the one downloaded from the dashboard a few minutes ago 24th-30th. The latest seven day total is up by 4106, but the preceding four complete weeks all the same totals.

Presumably we'd need to add to that cases reported today with dates 1st Oct onward - so 8,000 - 10,000 total regrettably seems feasible;

FLU JAB I had mine today as pre booked by boots. Quick and easy.
By contrast my elderly friend cannot get one through his doctors!

Boots may have run out; the woman who did mine said if you weren't booked last week they didn't have any left for new customers. I'd try other pharmacies and supermarkets. 🤞 you get some!

interesting, although I'd love to read the actual study not just the reporting of it

coronalongplein.nl/informatie/longfonds-worrying-picture-long-term-consequences-covid-19?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=LF-worrying-picture-long-term-consequences-covid

Yes, I tried to book one via boots today, and the website said they were suspending bookings, due to high demand.

Which is good, I guess? As long as all the people who really need it can get via the GP.

Shocking troodon

I had a snatched conversation with a very cross friend who is a social worker earlier. She seemed to be saying they weren't to wear masks on home visits. She'd rung me to clarify that we weren't wearing them either and why (Sen primarily teacher; no idea why not.)

On a different note, as predicted my school is beginning to struggle. Staff with children are off as their bubbles have closed. Staff are SI due to contact and track and trace. Staff are continuing SI past 2 weeks after contracting it from who ever had it when the bubble closed. (Several staff in each class due to Sen, SD is v hard).

Everyone has so far not been badly affected at all, but the absences are going to start to impact. I'll be surprised if we don't have to close due to absences before Xmas.

Ordinarily we'd be able to fill gaps with various available ppa staff or other staff etc but that breaks bubbles.

Not being reported in news at all locally but I've heard via a friend of another full primary school closure.

I've got mine booked with boots for end of week but booked it early (as soon as they sent me the letter). They say they are honouring existing bookings (bloody well better since they charged me up front!)

Dparents had theirs done a few weeks ago. DH had his letter from the gp this week and they are running sessions throughout oct so he has booked in with no issue. Don't know if shortages are regional?

Which is good, I guess? As long as all the people who really need it can get via the GP.

My worry is some people may not. I can't fathom why I didn't get a text this year. I worry some may slip through the net.

I find that very small local chemists are perfectly well stocked for ppe, flu jabs, soap, toilet paper. People always go to big chains when local can be better.
In our local Village (Zone 2 of london :), but almost cut off from everywhere, no tube, 1 bus ...) - we didn't have any shortages in any of the mom&pop shops even when local tesco was half empty.

Last year I missed my flu jab because both the GP and Boots ran out of the over-60 version (far easier to make an appointment at Boots though, if you’re working it’s almost impossible to get one at a suitable time through the GP).
Re bubbles - apparently it’s safe where I work (FE college) because “bubbles”. Except of course it’s not. Luckily employers think the bubbles are bollocks and won’t send people in. I warned about this! Always nice to say “told you so”.

@IloveJKRowling
You might find this interesting
www.scielosp.org/article/sausoc/2010.v19n4/731-747/

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Two separate things from me

1. I like your threshold system bigchoc and tbh I think that’s what the public here need. A clear, “when rates are x then it is safe to do y” but the goalposts seem to be endlessly shifting. We’re at high 200s per 100k here now (actual figure tbc once they’ve sorted out the data I’m sure) but my children’s swimming lessons are going ahead. Swimming is really important to both of them and I’m really passionate about water safety so I want them to go. I also begrudge being charged for the lessons if we don’t go. But do I feel safe in the changing rooms at the moment, absolutely not. It’s the myriad of those decisions that becomes exhausting.

2. DH works as a hospital consultant. His trust have just announced that if anyone tests positive they are not allowed to give track and trace the details of any members of staff they’ve been in close contact with as they can’t risk having any more staff off isolating. So they are willingly putting staff and patients at risk! I’m so angry that this is how they’re reacting to the increased pressures in the NW

Re no.2, all NHS Trusts are required to have their own internal Test and Trace team who will manage the workplace 'close contacts'. One of the questions they ask is whether appropriate PPE was worn and if so, they will not be classed as a contact who is required to self isolate.

I cannot imagine any Trust would blatantly flout the government guidance and ask their employees to lie in these circumstances. I agree that this needs raising via the Whistleblowing process - this can be done anonymously.

GetAMoveOnTroodon

I do find it absolutely astounding that children's activities are exempt from rule of 6. If they genuinely wanted to keep schools open, allowing all the kids to mix with kids from other schools several times a week in enclosed spaces seems like such a bad idea.

I know what you mean about swimming, though. My DD has been swimming once since lockdown and she loves it and misses it so much. Unfortunately the pool she used to swim at hasn't opened and none of the ones that are open are safe enough for me (insisting on passing through changing rooms etc) - it does seem businesses vary so much in their risk assessments for this.

Thanks theSun - that looks very interesting

Worth looking for pharmacy /tesco flu jabs. My doc one wasn't until 28th Nov so I've had one done at Tesco, took my doc letter and it was free however I was more than willing to pay.

@UKCovid19stats has the hospital figures. Its showing 371 - yesterday was 368.

So is that an additional 371?

Also, what has caught my eye is the wording - total admissions and diagnosis whilst in hospital. To me this implies that there are people in hospital for other reasons who just happen to have covid included in the hospital admissions figures, it isn't just people who are ill enough from covid to require hospitalisation?

They are all pretty much gone round here. Our only pharmacy that does them is Boots...even though we live opposite one! His school is meant to be sorting them, too, but that's with Boots so I'm not holding my breath.