Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

That's surprising, piggy
I contacted my GP mid-September, flu jab last Thursday
There were no stocks available in my area before then, but no shortages afaik now it is being rolled out

Two separate things from me

1. I like your threshold system bigchoc and tbh I think that’s what the public here need. A clear, “when rates are x then it is safe to do y” but the goalposts seem to be endlessly shifting. We’re at high 200s per 100k here now (actual figure tbc once they’ve sorted out the data I’m sure) but my children’s swimming lessons are going ahead. Swimming is really important to both of them and I’m really passionate about water safety so I want them to go. I also begrudge being charged for the lessons if we don’t go. But do I feel safe in the changing rooms at the moment, absolutely not. It’s the myriad of those decisions that becomes exhausting.

2. DH works as a hospital consultant. His trust have just announced that if anyone tests positive they are not allowed to give track and trace the details of any members of staff they’ve been in close contact with as they can’t risk having any more staff off isolating. So they are willingly putting staff and patients at risk! I’m so angry that this is how they’re reacting to the increased pressures in the NW

@Augustbreeze
I agree.

Would others like to add their personal measures?

DH has been told to wait 'until October'

In other news, my local walk in test centre has just been moved form 7 days a week to 4. the (LibDem) mayor is fuming!

Rates are rising here and we have been on the watchlist.

I've also heard of doctors not being tested - testing regularly is an exception, not the rule and is not where you'd expect either (i.e. regular tests for a doctor who has less clinical contact than others not being tested).

" I hear of suicides, late diagnosed illnesses, cancer treatments paused until it's too late, untreated people struggling with agonising pain." It's precisely BECAUSE I want these people to get treatment that I am trying to avoid infection. Every person who occupies a bed because they have covid, or spreads it to someone who occupies a bed, deprives someone else of their health care.

I can support the economy by ordering takeaways, having items delivered, donating more to charities that are really struggling. I've been on holiday (aribnb) within the uk and will probably go again soon. Last time we ate out, this time it'll be either self catering or takeaways.

If low risk people are happy to expose themselves to greater risk to support the hospitality trade it's their choice - but it is potentially depriving others of health care and it's annoying when people not only ignore that but claim they are helping.

@TheSunIsStillShining - so you mean keep your London based job but work from Germany?

I’m sure you already have but just to note there are tax implications for this ( I know at my work there is a limit on 4 weeks working out of the U.K. without having Nd to change contract and permanently relocate - which some offices are unwilling to do if they don’t have a presence in that country as it then starts attracting local employment law etc).

Apologies this may not be relevant to you at all!

@TheSunIsStillShining - as long as you have a GP, I don't see why there would be an issue, public health needs usually dictate vaccinating as many as possible because vaccines aren't 100% effective for everyone (I find the EU proposal confusing for that reason). I can see people needing to register with a GP, because they will invite by age group, but I guess there would be walk-in centres too.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Two separate things from me

1. I like your threshold system bigchoc and tbh I think that’s what the public here need. A clear, “when rates are x then it is safe to do y” but the goalposts seem to be endlessly shifting. We’re at high 200s per 100k here now (actual figure tbc once they’ve sorted out the data I’m sure) but my children’s swimming lessons are going ahead. Swimming is really important to both of them and I’m really passionate about water safety so I want them to go. I also begrudge being charged for the lessons if we don’t go. But do I feel safe in the changing rooms at the moment, absolutely not. It’s the myriad of those decisions that becomes exhausting.

2. DH works as a hospital consultant. His trust have just announced that if anyone tests positive they are not allowed to give track and trace the details of any members of staff they’ve been in close contact with as they can’t risk having any more staff off isolating. So they are willingly putting staff and patients at risk! I’m so angry that this is how they’re reacting to the increased pressures in the NW

This is the same thinking that delays testing to day 8 because they have a backlog. It helps the situation in a very superficial way and it hinders the fight against covid.

I think this may be partly due to the very poor level of scientific education we have in the UK. You would hope for better from NHS managers and people organising test and trace.

@sirfredfredgeorge

At my age, loss of peak fitness takes too long to regain

This is my real fear, all the more vulnerable but not extremely vulnerable losing fitness that they will not get the chance to get back. How much encouragement to exercise were these groups given in Germany? Sadly there was way too little here, shielders were scared to be inside all the time.

... Exercise for individuals was encouraged here right from the start of lockdown in March

Message to vulnerable and elderly in particular was that regular exercise was helpful to strengthen heart, CV system, lungs in case we caught the virus
Hence why no limit mentioned on outdoor exercise, so long as SD maintained

Gym opening on 16 May was at the same time as smaller non-essential shops and outdoor restaurants
so after schools restarted pt ( 4 May) but prioriitised before the larger non-essential shops or infoor restaurants

Also, sunshine and fresh air said to important from the start - although that is standard German health advice in normal times too !
So individuals / family here could sit in the sun, on grass or benches - unlike most opinion on MN

The police car rolled by my Rhine bank area twice daily during lockdown, but ignored the row of elderly, one per bench, all along the Rhine
They only warned cyclists to go more slowly on the shared path; later put up some bike speed bumps

It's interesting what ppl value and are willing to take risks for. We live in a gated community, about 300 flats, half empty, so about 3-400 residents. We have a pool and a gym. Both by booking only and max 4 in the pool, 2 in the tiny gym.
We have not had any covid instance as far as we know.
I feel totally safe with both, especially as I we are totally alone with my son in the gym and mostly the same for the pool.

We have had pre-made meal first time since jan. But even before that it was months between takeaways.

I had a much lighter workload so I was the one getting stocks/supplies. Mask + gloves + wash/quarantine everything that comes in the flat. It turns out to not be that much of a bother, so okay with keeping to it.

Instead of thresholds I put measures at the forefront.
IF school made masks mandatory + halved the classes somehow I'd send my son in

IF fencing club allowed masks + own equipment my son would be there already.

IF I could see ppl being careful (mask, distancing, cleaning) I'd go on holiday/away from the house.

At around 100/100k cases I wouldn't do these even if the measures were in place.

[quote littlestpogo]@TheSunIsStillShining - so you mean keep your London based job but work from Germany?

I’m sure you already have but just to note there are tax implications for this ( I know at my work there is a limit on 4 weeks working out of the U.K. without having Nd to change contract and permanently relocate - which some offices are unwilling to do if they don’t have a presence in that country as it then starts attracting local employment law etc).

Apologies this may not be relevant to you at all![/quote]
No. We'll find another when we want to come back. Paying for a london flat is out of the question if we don't live in it :)
Yes, I know the tax implications, but we have our own company, so that is relatively easy to manage.

I’m a hospital consultant treating cancer patients and am tested every week - have had 21 swabs so far So it is as ever a postcode lottery!

Less potentially health threatening troodon but the same pressures are being applied to teachers. We aren't necessarily included in track and trace either : they want us in work at all costs.

"2) DH works as a hospital consultant. His trust have just announced that if anyone tests positive they are not allowed to give track and trace the details of any members of staff they’ve been in close contact with as they can’t risk having any more staff off isolating. So they are willingly putting staff and patients at risk! I’m so angry that this is how they’re reacting to the increased pressures in the NW "

That is shocking and sounds terrible public health practice

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Two separate things from me

1. I like your threshold system bigchoc and tbh I think that’s what the public here need. A clear, “when rates are x then it is safe to do y” but the goalposts seem to be endlessly shifting. We’re at high 200s per 100k here now (actual figure tbc once they’ve sorted out the data I’m sure) but my children’s swimming lessons are going ahead. Swimming is really important to both of them and I’m really passionate about water safety so I want them to go. I also begrudge being charged for the lessons if we don’t go. But do I feel safe in the changing rooms at the moment, absolutely not. It’s the myriad of those decisions that becomes exhausting.

2. DH works as a hospital consultant. His trust have just announced that if anyone tests positive they are not allowed to give track and trace the details of any members of staff they’ve been in close contact with as they can’t risk having any more staff off isolating. So they are willingly putting staff and patients at risk! I’m so angry that this is how they’re reacting to the increased pressures in the NW

Number 2 of these is outrageous and surely deserves whistleblowing? This means asymptomatic staff could well be spreading it to even more staff and also vulnerable patients!

@MRex
what I was thinking is more along the lines of them fucking this up as well and leaving a lot of ppl at the curb because they didn't have enough braincells to think of the 2nd step of a process. Not by design to exclude. And I'm sure our GP would help us out, he is a lovely chap :)

@teta

Shockingly Hospital doctors are still not being regularly tested . At least not in a family members hospital. She’s a consultant geriatrician and hasn’t been tested since last April - antibody test for Covid earlier. She also has said that many care homes in their area are not regularly tested. Cases have gone up from 2-17 in 5 days in her hospital and elective surgery is still going on. Chaos was the word used for Friday. 3 potential Covid cases in the corridors waiting to be sorted out. This is in an area of ‘medium risk ‘. She also confirmed that it’s possible to pick it up again but the jury’s out on whether it’s more virulent the second time around.

I'm an A&E doctor and have never had a test.

Ahh good I only mention as a few people at my work decided to just move aboard ( without checking with work) and came unstuck!

@TheSunIsStillShining

It's interesting what ppl value and are willing to take risks for. We live in a gated community, about 300 flats, half empty, so about 3-400 residents. We have a pool and a gym. Both by booking only and max 4 in the pool, 2 in the tiny gym. We have not had any covid instance as far as we know. I feel totally safe with both, especially as I we are totally alone with my son in the gym and mostly the same for the pool.

We have had pre-made meal first time since jan. But even before that it was months between takeaways.

I had a much lighter workload so I was the one getting stocks/supplies. Mask + gloves + wash/quarantine everything that comes in the flat. It turns out to not be that much of a bother, so okay with keeping to it.

Instead of thresholds I put measures at the forefront.
IF school made masks mandatory + halved the classes somehow I'd send my son in

IF fencing club allowed masks + own equipment my son would be there already.

IF I could see ppl being careful (mask, distancing, cleaning) I'd go on holiday/away from the house.

At around 100/100k cases I wouldn't do these even if the measures were in place.

And yet here, our rates are way above 100/100k and people are doing all sorts including being indoors in pubs and restaurants and sometimes even flouting the regulations in place.

Personally, I've never washed shopping,
as official advice here and online was always that there was near-zero risk from parcels, letters or shopping

However, I do leave parcels and letters to the side for a few hours - it was 48 hours during lockdown !

I don't have hand sanitiser when I'm out - but use what they have at gym or restaurant.
However, I wash hands thoroughly with soap when I return home

I grew up in Iraq where -as europeans- we really had to wash everything as our bodies were not really capable of handling the things circulating there. To me washing stuff is natural and have done all my life with fruit and veg. (apart when I went to my grandparent's weekend house where they grew all kinds of things and I ate it off the tree/shrub as it came :) All bio, all organic)

I was surprised how quarantining things for 72 hours actually helped shape our spending habits. When we are comfortably of we don't really care about small items costing x amount and buy quite freely what we want within a certain budget. That led to us having lot more stuff than we actually need (or will want to move if/when we leave this flat).
Having to wait for stuff and not impulse buying as it will be an extra 3 days before we can open it curbed our habits a bit. Hence us still doing it :)

DH works as a hospital consultant. His trust have just announced that if anyone tests positive they are not allowed to give track and trace the details of any members of staff they’ve been in close contact with as they can’t risk having any more staff off isolating. So they are willingly putting staff and patients at risk! I’m so angry that this is how they’re reacting to the increased pressures in the NW

The hospital trusts get around this by saying that all staff should be wearing PPE so it shouldn't be possible to pass the virus on to each other. Make of that what you will.

Peston has just tweeted this:

I was expecting todays numbers to be higher due to the notice which said ''In the coming days'' or whatever it said.
Bit concerned to see they're late again tonight though, worries me in regards to just how high the numbers will be.
I'm thinking they'll be close on yesterdays figures but no reason to think so..