Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

SImilar idea to Mrex !

TravellingTabby has a “buy me a coffee” link on his www.
I bought him a few.

@littleowl1 I’m definitely happy to contribute - either by bank transfer / PayPal / whatever works for you

"If Not Us, Who? And If Not Now, When?
Perspective From a COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit Run by Otolaryngology Residents"

from the ICU frontline - NYC health services were almost overwhelmed in the 1st wave:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaotolaryngology/fullarticle/2771365?

Useful overlays from Richard@RP131 on "what happened vs what was reported":

• Cases by specimen date vs report date
• Deaths by DoD vs report date

They illustrate the problem of trying to give up to date info when there is a reporting lag going into data that public health authorities receive

The latest hiccup was a large chunk of cases that were mislaid, but there have always been minor updates quietly added to days that may be some time in the past, especially wrt deaths

@BigChocFrenzy
Inclined to agree re:incompetence. The point I was making is that this level of stupidity lends itself to alternative interpretations. When in a crisis (be it world/country/corporation) the first thing you want to do is establish clear lines of communication (both channel and msg).

@BigChocFrenzy
Could you help us out? We are debating with my husband that in feb when the rent period is up we should move to GErmany - small town/village- where there are low numbers for 6 months. Our assumptions are that:

• numbers are valid more than here
• ppl are more compliant/aware/less idiotic
• more granular data is available to help with individual risk management.

Are these actually true or are we romanticizing Germany in our minds?

One of the Facebook memes I liked said stay home ...unless you want to be intubated by a gynaecologist.

When I think of the republican superspreader event this comes to mind "When I was a kid there was only one born every minute but production has ramped up a bit."

Handy "C02-timer" Ventilation App - iphone & iPad, maybe others too - for home / school / office rooms:

Originally intended pre-Covid for health & safety at work.

Calculates how many often (in minutes) you need to fully ventilate a room, using:
number of people, duration of their stay, floor area (sqm), ceiling ht (m)

Then optionally sets a timer alarm

@littleowl1 agree with the buy me coffee option. Could you have a donations button where people put in however much they want? Maybe send an email to everyone on the mailing list, You never know, some people reading it may have contacts to get corporate sponsorship or be happy to donate. Just explain the situ like yiu did to us and I bet lots of people would be willing to donate and if not then they’d be prepared and understand if a fee was added for the service. I’m so grateful for all your work and the emails, thank you.

What @Reastie said, @littleowl1

Shockingly Hospital doctors are still not being regularly tested . At least not in a family members hospital. She’s a consultant geriatrician and hasn’t been tested since last April - antibody test for Covid earlier. She also has said that many care homes in their area are not regularly tested. Cases have gone up from 2-17 in 5 days in her hospital and elective surgery is still going on. Chaos was the word used for Friday. 3 potential Covid cases in the corridors waiting to be sorted out.
This is in an area of ‘medium risk ‘.
She also confirmed that it’s possible to pick it up again but the jury’s out on whether it’s more virulent the second time around.

"You are better tipo just assume anyone could have it."

To me that is the dangerous thing. I spent the first few months making just that assumption and, apart from a dash round Sainsbury's as rarely as possible, and walking in places where I would see very few people, I stayed in. But, over time, I saw those people who 'could have it' out and about, clearly well and of no threat to me when I met them 2 weeks previously. I only know a few people who have had it and they've all recovered, mostly quickly.

But what I do see is shops and businesses closing, livelihoods lost, lonely people crying when they meet me as they're so glad to see a familiar face. I hear of suicides, late diagnosed illnesses, cancer treatments paused until it's too late, untreated people struggling with agonising pain. People desperate to tell someone how they're hardly coping without actual face-to-face communication. How the phone and internet are such a poor substitute for them week after week.

So, in my life, the impetous is to get out and about and try to do what little I can to alleviate the actual suffering I see. As a human I can't just hide away to avoid some threat that seems to be pretty much absent locally. The evidence of my own experience is that I allow the most harm by avoiding people and not spending. Without useable figures I can't judge when the balance has swung and I'm likely to do more harm if I don't stay in.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@BigChocFrenzy
Could you help us out? We are debating with my husband that in feb when the rent period is up we should move to GErmany - small town/village- where there are low numbers for 6 months. Our assumptions are that:

• numbers are valid more than here
• ppl are more compliant/aware/less idiotic
• more granular data is available to help with individual risk management.

Are these actually true or are we romanticizing Germany in our minds?[/quote]
....
Well, Germany has done very well so far and the systems are genuinely efficient with competent leadership,
BUT
temporary emigration sounds an extreme step even if you have someone ECV
and by February anyway it will be nearly over the worst of winter, so you would probably only gain a few weeks benefit.

It costs a lot to move abroad, so it's expensive for 6 months and there are practical difficulties
e.g. hardly any German rentals are furnished; would you need schools - they'll be German language; do you speak any German for normal daily life etc
AND
unless you moved by 31 December AND registered at the town hall, Brexit would make a move of more than 90 days very difficult,
unless one of you had a particular skill and a job waiting

As a solution, it sounds disproportionate to the Covid risk, tbh
If you are worried, imo better to invest the money in prepping and holing up

@teta

Shockingly Hospital doctors are still not being regularly tested . At least not in a family members hospital. She’s a consultant geriatrician and hasn’t been tested since last April - antibody test for Covid earlier. She also has said that many care homes in their area are not regularly tested. Cases have gone up from 2-17 in 5 days in her hospital and elective surgery is still going on. Chaos was the word used for Friday. 3 potential Covid cases in the corridors waiting to be sorted out. This is in an area of ‘medium risk ‘. She also confirmed that it’s possible to pick it up again but the jury’s out on whether it’s more virulent the second time around.

My husband has never had a test, he's a hospital consultant and has worked on the wards throughout.

@TheSunIsStillShining -

1. If infection rates are high in Feb then it wouldn't be a good idea to fly, there has certainly been some transmission on planes.
2. If infection rates are low in Feb with spring around the corner then it wouldn't make a difference.
3. With vaccines potentially coming up next year, unless you are all ECV then you might find you qualify in the UK but not in Germany, because UK has been planning full population vaccine and the EU was suggesting non-vulnerable/ healthcare would need to wait to ensure global vaccine equity: ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1103.

Germany is delightful, if you'd suggested moving there this August it would have been a good idea.

@BigChocFrenzy
As much as your points are very good, actually moving is fairly easy for us :)

• EU citizens, not brits
• wfh, so same london based income guaranteed
• online school for kid
• buy cheap ikea. (we would save enough on rent to afford it)

This would not be mainly because of covid. It's more covid presents an opportunity. I speak German on an everyday level, so that's not an issue. The main point why we always planned on moving there for the summer 3 months is so that our kid will learn german in a native setting and not in a school setting. This has changed a bit as the original plan was an extended language camp type of thing I found, but for obv reasons they didn't do it this summer and already said that next summer is highly unlikely. So now we're thinking more of a small town with a language center that offers intensive lessons.

[quote MRex]@TheSunIsStillShining -

1. If infection rates are high in Feb then it wouldn't be a good idea to fly, there has certainly been some transmission on planes.
2. If infection rates are low in Feb with spring around the corner then it wouldn't make a difference.
3. With vaccines potentially coming up next year, unless you are all ECV then you might find you qualify in the UK but not in Germany, because UK has been planning full population vaccine and the EU was suggesting non-vulnerable/ healthcare would need to wait to ensure global vaccine equity: ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1103.

Germany is delightful, if you'd suggested moving there this August it would have been a good idea.[/quote]
Good points, but we would only go by car anyway. Mostly because of the stuff we have, but also I am not willing to fly. I just can't fathom how it can be safe....
I am more afraid that I won't qualify in the UK as a EU citizen... :( Worst case scenario: It's a 20hr drive to my home country where I can get a vaccine if needed.

@MRex
In the UK legally I'm not in the the vulnerable category as all my medical papers are in Hungarian (with obvious latin names) and I would need to undergo full testing (scopes on both sides, MRI, 2 types of CT scans) and how I never planned to go on benefits never went through the 6+ months of this torture. So I'm screwed whatever happens :)

"You are better to just assume anyone could have it."

Well, you can assume it, but it depends what actions you want to take as a consequence

I follow 100% all govt / RKI advice for over-60s (in Germany), not merely the laws.
However, within this, I do the things I consider important for my enjoyment of life

In lockdown mid-March to 4 May:
the govt advised age 60+ were at higher risk and should stay home as much as poss
So I didn't go into any shops, just used my stock and online - slots were available anytime
But I walked / biked outdoors daily for 1-2 hours, as no time limit was recommended

16 May:
Gyms reopened and I've been going 5-6 days per week - longterm gym rat
Yes, there is a risk with no masks & panting, but offset by greater fitness than I can manage at home
At my age, loss of peak fitness takes too long to regain

I walk to the local farm shop and little grocery shop every 1-2 weeks
I have a daily Rhine walk, no mask.

22 May:
Hairdressers opened with masks and I've had 3 trims since ( a new very swish undercut for my grey locks !)

From 2 June
I've been eating in my 2 fav outdoor restaurants 2 x weekly and both have added takeaways, so 2 x weekly of those

From mid-Sept
Colder weather, so I've been eating indoors 1-2 x weekly and fav takeaways

Cases are slowly rising, so I have roughly planned my own precautions in addition to official advice / laws that may come:

If they rise > 20/100,000 locally I'll just have takeaway

35 / 100,000 or earlier - just online shopping
50 / 100,000 or earlier - stop gym
I've grocery stocks for 6 weeks and can resume online grocery shopping any time

I haven't been on public transport or on outings / events since March and won't until the Covid threat is down to flu level
i.e. post vaccination at least

Sorry for derailing the thread, but it is really good to hear opinions and practical issues being brought up by ppl with pragmatic mindsets :)

It is actually quite interesting to hear about informed individuals' personal thought processes and decisions!

I don't believe that EU citizens would have a problem accessing the vaccine in the UK, or vice versa
Or indeed citizens of any country anywhere

It would be total idiocy from a public health pov, a country massively shooting itself in the foot

However, if you were planning 6 months in Germany anyway, it now sounds feasible with your update
but you might not get the full enjoyment / experience with everyone still in masks indoors
and larger events etc cancelled, probably until vaccine rollout completed ~ next Autumn

This is a concern:

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/04/gp-surgeries-england-left-waiting-flu-vaccine-supplies-covid

Certainly DH has not had his invitation from his surgery yet.

At my age, loss of peak fitness takes too long to regain

This is my real fear, all the more vulnerable but not extremely vulnerable losing fitness that they will not get the chance to get back. How much encouragement to exercise were these groups given in Germany? Sadly there was way too little here, shielders were scared to be inside all the time.