Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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We're waiting for PHE - nothing dramatic in figures for the 3 smaller UK nations,
for which Richard@RP131 has put cases in a handy table:

Scotland ~ same
NI 🔽
Wales 🔼

also saying it's NHS tests and linked to a mobile testing unit:

Yup, I was told by a union rep that this would happen if there was a big outbreak at a school.

It's the total lack of media response that makes me think there's some poor sod in the server room surrounded by eletric spaghetti....

The front page is just hosted on azure, and azure is fine, so it would have to be some other sort of system failure to stop them updating - but then it's not actually mission critical information so a day outage is perfectly reasonable, it just depends a bit on how the data gets there. So there's probably not any poor bod in a server room, it'll be someone trying to recover lost credentials or get new ones issued etc. That sort of thing.

This message just appeared - so there are even more cases than reported...

Due to a technical issue, which has now been resolved, there has been a delay in publishing a number of COVID-19 cases to the dashboard in England. This means the total reported over the coming days will include some additional cases from the period between 24 September and 1 October, increasing the number of cases reported.

Otherwise known as "you're going to get a shock".

Blimey over 12k😱

Looks like 12,872

Interesting, although worrying.

I was just thinking, when testing capacity actually catches up with demand, which should be sometime in the next few weeks (presuming the promised increased capacity by month end is sufficient for now), I think there'll be a big jump in case numbers. I presume this is not the technical issue cited today.

(Didn't see those figures when au posted that)

So that seems like an average of 1000 more per day for the last week than was actually reported.

I wonder if they’ll ever split it out for us?

I suppose in the end it doesn’t make such a difference to the rolling 7 day average, which is going to be up now.

This makes me feel sick. All the media coverage about “Oh it’s not rising exponentially” and “lockdown is working!”

They’ve been fudging the figures. Utter fuckers.

So does that mean we're going to have several more days of similar figures and then it'll decrease again? Hmmm

So nearly 13k, but including an unknown number of cases from the last 9 days.

I've noticed that whenever there's a day that's high, they put out that there's lots from previous days. They don't say when there's a low day that it may not be as low as it seems because more will be added.

Where have you got those figures from

They report cases by date of test which they restate every day, and that’s what they base the rates per 100,000 on. Here’s the total UK (ignore 1 October as it won’t be finalised yet)

Holy crap

Very convenient for the Witty/Valance graph slide earlier on in the week.

Explains that sudden dip in cases which didn't match the curve last weekend

I don't look at the date reported data. Doesn't mean a lot. I look at specimen date data

It's Wales' highest rate recorded since the start of lockdown (different rates of testing notwithstanding!).

And actually by specimen dates the rates are fairly flat

@ceeveebee

And actually by specimen dates the rates are fairly flat

That’s more reassuring than the jump

It would actually help make some more sense of the university outbreaks and PHE data, the announcements from universities never quite tallied to me with what the headline numbers were - so if some tests and positives went unrecorded there, it would help.

The England stats have specimen date, looks like dates back to the 23rd is when it started going very wrong, with 700 extra per day since then. The pattern doesn't seem to have changed either, the 24th is still looking like a peak as Mrex said before. With the biggest addition to the suspiciously low 27th, so whilst the number is high, I think it actually brings it more into line with the ONS etc. estimates

Would be good to get an explanation, but it looks like a simple group missing - and I suspect the student pop-up tests, but that would be guesswork!

The specimen data doesn’t make sense though. There seems to be around 6-7k per day, fine, but that roughly correlates to what the daily reported figures have been. I don’t see where the 13k new ones have “gone”. Similarly if you look at north west numbers there are 3500 ish new ones today but really not clear where they have “gone” because the numbers per day are still very similar.

Some clusterfuck somewhere I think.

When I look at the one for my LA (local lockdown area which looked like it was going down a bit) loads have been added to the 24th-26th...