Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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I just knew that there was going to be a huge jump in the figures and/or numbers to be added from days ago: the reporting from my local press had more cases of individuals testing positive in schools (either staff or children - and I do mean confirmed cases, not self-isolators/symptoms) than on the corresponding day we had TOTAL cases in the same postcode.

I'm not surprised by the massive jump but it's still scary to see.

Foookin ell.

So what was the seven day rolling average seven days ago?

And what is it now??

Handy graph from RP131 on twitter to show where the new cases have come from

This is from @RP131's Twitter feed. Be interesting to see if there is more "catching up" to come.

@MarcelineMissouri great minds!

Newcastle numbers have all re jigged for that week.

It sounds like there's been a lot of focused testing at unis. I know of many, many asymptomatic student who have been tested. I hope the figures relate to that. Only time will tell though.

''Over the coming days'' tells me that whilst todays number is high, they haven't put all the cases on. Which makes them even more worrying.

It explains the additional 850 in Newcastle.

And is bad news as if those were part of the numbers for the last 2 weeks, it meant community rates weren't as bad as they seemed. But a lot have been added on now.

@MarcelineMissouri

Handy graph from RP131 on twitter to show where the new cases have come from

Marceline what are the red bars in the background? Is that Whitty’s projected cases?

Cases added by specimen dates

1 Oct. 3654
30 sep. 1313
29 sep. 558
28 sep. 618
27 sep. 1263
26 sep. 794
25 sep. 550
24 sep. 724
23 sep. 721
22 sep. 153
21 sep. 257
20 sep. 257
19 sep. 27
18 sep. 13

Drinks and drabs thereafter 27 for rest of month, 24 for august

& if there is more to be added on, then doesn't that mean the figures are very close to Whitty's projected - if that's what the red is?

@MarshaBradyo yes the background is the Whitty/valance 50,000 cases chart

sunshinegirl82 and MarcelluneMissouri

Thank you, that is really helpful.

So it looks like it’s gone from ~5000 per day to ~7000 (based on the latest data they have) .

But as you say, there could be more “catching up” yet....

Where the bloody hell have these cases been stuck??

Is there a graph anywhere that shows all the daily figures overlaid against each other? I.e it shows cases, hospital admissions and deaths?

@Frazzled2207

The specimen data doesn’t make sense though. There seems to be around 6-7k per day, fine, but that roughly correlates to what the daily reported figures have been. I don’t see where the 13k new ones have “gone”. Similarly if you look at north west numbers there are 3500 ish new ones today but really not clear where they have “gone” because the numbers per day are still very similar.

Some clusterfuck somewhere I think.

The overall numbers just about add up -if you add up the "cases reported per day" from Sept 2-Oct 3, and then compared that to "cases by specimen date" from Aug 30-Oct 3, you get 142,855 vs 141,122. So pretty much close enough.

That doesn't necessarily mean all the local level data is correct though!

7 day average on specimen date up to Sept 29 is 5,441, up from 4,390 a week before; we are roughly on a doubling in 14 days at the moment on specimen date.

It would be interesting to know if they were a mobile testing unit tests that has gone astray, a lab with backlog, a technical issue, overseas tests with reporting delayed etc. The cases had been looking too good to be true for restrictions only just coming in, oh well.

[quote MarcelineMissouri]@MarshaBradyo yes the background is the Whitty/valance 50,000 cases chart[/quote]
Ok thanks. I can handle it if we’re tracking under that.

we are roughly on a doubling in 14 days at the moment on specimen date

Which is well within the range of the ONS numbers right, rather than the previous which had the cases right at the low end I think?

The labs are hugely behind.

Maybe they eventually found all the test results they lost...

@Pertella

Is there a graph anywhere that shows all the daily figures overlaid against each other? I.e it shows cases, hospital admissions and deaths?

David Paton (@cricketwyvern on Twitter) does this every day - (not updated for today yet)

numbers of deaths remains relatively low - 49