Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

East of England had very low (single digit) numbers during the previous week.

While the relative % week-on-week change looks high, the absolute numbers (e.g. 10 on 29/9 or 18 on 30/9) are still low.

78 with symptoms, 10 contacts on average needing to self isolate, it's plausible. I was wondering if they'd done their own tests rather than PHE tests, with errors potentially creeping in.

Sorry yes, I didn't mean it shouldn't be reported, but that it has to be very carefully reported and this rarely seems to happen at the moment.

But am aware that even that aim can lead to censorship.

No data yet? I’ve seen the other nations have released, really late and no announcement on Twitter.

I note that the MSOA map has updated. The student areas of Leeds are increasing still and the city is turning bluer. One of the MSOAs has something like 1800 per 100000 over the last week, assuming a pop of 7000 and 126 cases. Surely I've calculated that incorrectly!! The MSOA Fallowfield in Manchester has had 259 in the last week.

I've been told that the number of Covid cases in hospital in Leeds has decreased from 65 to around 50, with 4 on ITU.

@cathyandclare I don’t think your maths is far out. Fallowfield MSOA has a mid yr 2019 population estimate of 11948, so 259 cases in a week is 2268 !!!!! cases per 100,000.

Avg pop for a Manchester MSOA is 9699

I always get a bit nervous when the figures are so late - no idea why!

@Witchend

Request from my df whose area is rising quickly.

Is there any way of getting daily cases about his village and surrounding ones, preferably separately?
I've shown him the map of daily cases from the link above, but it's a few days behind and weekly, and he'd really like it daily.

I doubt there is anything in that detail, but I thought I'd ask the experts here before saying that.

From @littleowl1

*I send an email summary every morning of the number of cases in your area - whether cases rising/falling etc - one for each council in England.

Loads of lovely mumsnetters have found it a handy way to keep on top of cases and risk locally. You are welcome to sign up for your council’s email if it helps at all.

www.covidmessenger.com*

You can sign up to 5 different locations

I tend to associate it being late with a sudden jump in numbers, but I don't think I have any justification for that.

@Nquartz
Thanks, he's already on that (a minor miracle as he hates the internet having any details about himself), but he wants it even smaller, ideally just their (quite large) village and preferably yesterdays numbers.

Because it's semi-rural their little area is actually quite big, if that makes sense!

Actually I wonder whether we're being prepped for the dashboard being scaled back. This week's was the last COVID-19 surveillance report, as of 8 October 2020, the information in this report will be published in a combined Weekly flu and COVID-19 Surveillance Report on GOV.UK.

Obviously that might just be the natural suspicion of a civil servant but...

@Cattermole

Actually I wonder whether we're being prepped for the dashboard being scaled back. This week's was the last COVID-19 surveillance report, as of 8 October 2020, the information in this report will be published in a combined Weekly flu and COVID-19 Surveillance Report on GOV.UK.

Obviously that might just be the natural suspicion of a civil servant but...

That could just be to help raise the profile of flu to help with flu jab uptake?

"They (the university) are reporting more cases than the whole of the district of Newcastle.
We wonder if they are counting all isolating students - including contacts - rather than cases."

I keep looking at the figures and can't work out how 770 has been shared between the cases for the last couple of weeks.

Although, I look more carefully and cases roughly doubled from 30-50 a day up to 80-130 a day from the 18th of September, so around 2 weeks ago.

An extra 50 a day from that date gets you about 700.

They started teaching on the 21st, so freshers week was wk beginning 14th. Many may have come up on the 12th or before. So that's when there must have been some super spreading events.

@Witchend then I suspect his best source is probably the village shop!

Northumbria Uni - on Radio 4 PM a little while ago they said the university spokesperson said 770 tested positive, with 78 of these having symptoms.

So it is 770 actually with positive tests (presumably, given this, more cases will follow) of which only 78 have symptoms.

I wonder what they count as 'symptoms' though. They interviewed a student who said she had a sore throat and a headache and had tested positive - those symptoms might not be counted as not the same as the 3 PHE consider important.

The university spokesman said they knew about so many cases as were doing proactive testing of contacts (IIRC, listened a while back now). They felt that transparency and knowing the extent of the problem was important. Good for them, I say.

Has todays data been added yet. I couldnt see it on Worldometer.

@Witchend

Request from my df whose area is rising quickly.

Is there any way of getting daily cases about his village and surrounding ones, preferably separately?
I've shown him the map of daily cases from the link above, but it's a few days behind and weekly, and he'd really like it daily.

I doubt there is anything in that detail, but I thought I'd ask the experts here before saying that.

There is a spreadsheet behind the map that shows last 7 days and each complete week, if you were to download that every day and then you could compare the last 7 days figure you work out whether it’s gone up or down? You get it from the gov dashboard by clicking on the arrow

@IloveJKRowling

Northumbria Uni - on Radio 4 PM a little while ago they said the university spokesperson said 770 tested positive, with 78 of these having symptoms.

So it is 770 actually with positive tests (presumably, given this, more cases will follow) of which only 78 have symptoms.

I wonder what they count as 'symptoms' though. They interviewed a student who said she had a sore throat and a headache and had tested positive - those symptoms might not be counted as not the same as the 3 PHE consider important.

The university spokesman said they knew about so many cases as were doing proactive testing of contacts (IIRC, listened a while back now). They felt that transparency and knowing the extent of the problem was important. Good for them, I say.

I agree - good for them, those cases would have normaly been missed if relying on the 3 symptoms.

I currently have a sore throat and a headache and none of the 3 main symptoms. I have been in contact with a lot of people (by proxy) over the last 2 weeks, mainly as my DD works in a nursery, my DS Fiance works in a hospital and the other person I have seen has worked in London so been on public transport, I myself haven't had contact with anyone except my DD who lives with me and my DS and his fiance and my other sons GF, as I helped out with their new puppy recently and slept over to look after her while their other dog had an operation. Indirectly though, everyone of those people have been in contact with others due to their work and so by proxy so have I. (in particular my DD who works in a nursery and lives with me so we are in close contact, no PPE etc)

However, I wouldn't assume my symptoms to be anything other than a cold or a non-covid virus, but to be honest they could quite easily be symptoms of it. Its a bit hit and miss who gets tested, who is asymptomatic or doesn't fit the category and so doesn't isolate etc, I cant see it being contained to be honest. The Uni has caught them all through thorough testing of all, which may mean they manage to stop it spreading.

@Augustbreeze
🤣🤣🤣

Actually his village might be reasonably accurate, but the next one along will probably swear to a pile of body bags in the local pub. It's a bit like a cross between the Archers and Eastenders.

Jen this is the place to look - but it hasn't been updated yet today. Very late!

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

@IloveJKRowling

Northumbria Uni - on Radio 4 PM a little while ago they said the university spokesperson said 770 tested positive, with 78 of these having symptoms.

So it is 770 actually with positive tests (presumably, given this, more cases will follow) of which only 78 have symptoms.

I wonder what they count as 'symptoms' though. They interviewed a student who said she had a sore throat and a headache and had tested positive - those symptoms might not be counted as not the same as the 3 PHE consider important.

The university spokesman said they knew about so many cases as were doing proactive testing of contacts (IIRC, listened a while back now). They felt that transparency and knowing the extent of the problem was important. Good for them, I say.

That’s interesting

Does that mean they were private tests?

Did they say how many were tested overall? Or was it just the 770

Thanks for that Jk.

And the maps show it must be positive cases as it's dark blue in all the student areas.

It's basically been a sizeable chunk of the daily numbers in Newcastle for the last couple of weeks.

I believe from looking at fb updates from the council and local news that Newcastle and Northumbria uni are working closely with the city council. I expect they've set up emergency test centres.

Mobile testing units are supposed to be being deployed to high case outbreaks such as schools and obviously universities.

I know they had one they'd tried to put one in Gateshead centre a few weeks ago when there were issues that turned up a day late.( It was on world at one!)

It's on Radio 4 PM today so please do listen again if you want to hear the detail - was cooking dinner (and now have children pestering me for pudding!) so probably wasn't paying full attention. The student interviewed IIRC said only 2 out of her flat tested positive which she thought was weird because they weren't distancing beforehand, which implied they were tested and tested negative.

Ha story of my life JK (R4 and dc)