Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

I've just come across a way to see cases by local area in Scotland:

public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

Under Cases By Neighbourhood, then select the council in the drop down.

Maybe its been available for a while, but it's the first time I've ever seen it at a lower level than council.

Reassuring to see that there have been no cases in my local area or surrounding areas in the past 7 days.

@littleowl1 I know, I get them daily :)

Possibly for another thread but I have been “pre-selected” for the novavax vaccine trial. Quite excited but it takes place over 13 months so presume they’re not expecting this one to have wide roll-out anytime soon. Anyone else?

@CaptainMerica actually I noticed this this week too. Scotland council data is buried in the gov.uk data service too. And wales and Northern Ireland. Which is brilliant as I’m going to be able to add them to covid messenger really soon. Which I’m thrilled about. So many ppl been asking me for it.

One thing I have been trying to work out though is whether there is a watchlist for any of these nations? Does anyone know? They aren’t included in the surveillance reports - I presume because it’s done by PHE. But is there anything similar in any of the other nations?

@TheSunIsStillShining

Frazzled2207 I'm on the list of trials volunteers and got an email last week saying they would be starting the phase 3 novavax trial in November. I suspect I won't get asked because I don't live near a big hospital. There was a request from the hospital in the city nearest me for volunteers in vulnerable category for the oxford trial but you to live in that city.
I am ECV so don't know now whether I would take part. This is for the very selfish reason that if I was in a trial (and potentially on a placebo) and another vaccine became available I imagine I wouldn't be allowed to have it.

That's great news @Frazzled2207, I'd love to get the Imperial one as it looks the best technically, still hoping to be picked!

Wow @CaptainMerica thanks for sharing this, I've been looking for ages to find a way to get more granular data. I live in Fife but in a very small place so it's difficult to gauge the reality really.

@fyzz
Yes that’s my concern that I might not be allowed to have any quicker vaccines that become available. Will be my first question though.

I happen to live about a mile away from one of the hospitals involved in a trial which probably helps. I don’t think a particularly large number of hospitals are involved.

@MRex
How do you get on the imperial list? I presume you need to live in London which would count me out.

Can’t remember what it was but I just added myself to the general call to arms.

I’m working age, white and healthy so not in any kind of special category which probably means I won’t get picked but I filled in an online questionnaire and it said a particular doc from the hospital (1 mile away) was going to get in touch so crossing fingers.

Request from my df whose area is rising quickly.

Is there any way of getting daily cases about his village and surrounding ones, preferably separately?
I've shown him the map of daily cases from the link above, but it's a few days behind and weekly, and he'd really like it daily.

I doubt there is anything in that detail, but I thought I'd ask the experts here before saying that.

@Fyzz
Just read the faq again and it states that if another vaccine became available in the meantime the trial might be stopped so that participants can take that instead. And even if it isn’t officially stopped participants always have the option to come out of the trial. I suspect an awful lot of clinical trials don’t run until the end for many reasons.

CaptainMerica thanks for that link.

Does anyone know of a source where it is possible to see graphs/tables for London boroughs over time? I’m aware of continuing expectation of a London lockdown soon and I know most boroughs’ rates are rising but I can’t get a handle on how fast. I also understand the rationale of locking down everywhere rather than specific boroughs because of population density. There is also the theory about interconnectivity between boroughs but as far as I can tell, this may not be a big issue - I think most Londoners are actually sticking quite closely to their ‘village’ with WFH and reduced socialising, theatre, restaurants etc. I’m in Camden so prettt central, but rates here remain pretty low. .I’m interested to see the trends but can only see current figures and up/down indicators from last week.

@littleowl1

Morning all. Someone posted a link here that let you check the restrictions in your area and I can’t seem to find it. If anyone knows it I would be so grateful if you could post it again!

..... I posted a tool earlier, created by the HoC library staff:

Jennifer Brown @jen_brown93

Me and my @commonslibrary colleagues @carlbaker , @olihawkins and @DanFergusonHoC have made an interactive map of coronavirus restrictions.

Find out what restrictions apply where you are by clicking the link

https://visual.parliament.uk/research/visualisations/coronavirus-restrictions-map/?long=-3.1&lat=54.8&zoom=9&showmore=1

@littleowl1 can I send an email back to the email address i get the msgs from? I have a few suggestions

I was also wondering if the Newcastle Uni 770 figure had been verified to normal public health reporting standards, now this comment:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-major-outbreak-at-northumbria-university-as-770-students-test-positive-12088042

A public health source has suggested the figures may need to be reconsidered, however.

They told Sky News:

"They (the university) are reporting more cases than the whole of the district of Newcastle.
We wonder if they are counting all isolating students - including contacts - rather than cases."

Does anyone know of a source where it is possible to see graphs/tables for London boroughs over time?

London is now in the government watchlist so the best source of information might be the weekly LSOA report:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923831/Watchlist_LSOA_Maps_for_publication_Part_1.pdf
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923836/Watchlist_LSOA_Maps_for_publication_Part_2.pdf

Unfortunately, you will have to scroll through the document to find the info for each borough. There is no single report for London.

Re: probability of a further lockdown - London is one of a few regions with falling hospital admissions (bases on 7 day averages now vs a week ago) so unless the trend reverses, I would be very surprised to see any additional measures. For now the numbers on their own do not support the case for further restrictions.

Here is one of the websites that compares week on week NHS triage data, positive cases and hospital admissions across English regions:

russss.github.io/covidtracker/index.html

@Baaaahhhhh

Newport Lighthouse lab supposed to be ready in August and still not ready

The labs are ready, there are just not enough staff to run them. At the end of the day, you can build facilities, equip them, and have them ready, but if you don't have the staff to run them, you are sunk.

NHS are desperately trying to recruit, perhaps we should widen the net to Europe..... oh wait...... .

Same as ventilators - loads of them now but no good without trained staff

Thanks Winter

@sleepwhenidie - as well as the LSOA report above, the mayor of London site might be useful, it gathers up relevant data and you can run your own reports: data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases.

Oh crikey @BigChocFrenzy. I hate it when anything like that is reported, simply because it feeds into the conspiracy theorists' narrative.

Responsible journalism would be good.

@Augustbreeze

Oh crikey *@BigChocFrenzy*. I hate it when anything like that is reported, simply because it feeds into the conspiracy theorists' narrative.

Responsible journalism would be good.

.. What shouldn't be reported ?

If a public health specialist is dubious about the stats, they should say so
Then either the stats are confirmed, or corrected
Same thing on these threads - we don't censor info

Journos shouldn't keep quiet about possible data errors just in case if stirs up conspiracy theorists

• who btw would be get a lot more people stirred up too if there is genuine censorship

imo journos are passively accepting too much and not doing their job of questioning & scrutinising the politicians especially

Why are hospital admissions up so much in the east of England according to that data? I wasn’t aware they had any big issues

I agree if the numbers are incorrect it’s very important press report it.

Especially one as emotive as the 770 figure if what is said about contacts is correct.

I don’t think conspiracy theorists should get that much sway or recognition in the decision

The age of those newly positive in Scotland continues to rise. Out of 764 today, 324 were over 45.