Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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The worry about being locked in can cause flight behaviour. Not dissimilar to scenes in Italy at the beginning when the lockdown happened.

In one of the Independent SAGE briefings, it was discussed that 87% of People who have been on ICU with covid still have problematic symptoms 2 months after they were supposed to have recovered (mind you, being on ICU is a major insult, so that figures)

It again illustrates why it's impractical to say the elderly and vulnerable should lock themselves away and let the young and vulnerable get on with life

They mix
A lot

Almost all students and a good chunk of young adults in their 20s are very dependent on parents, who are quite often in the 60+ age group
Often still living with them, or will be fetched home whenever they are affected by Covid - illness or isolation

@herecomesthsun

In one of the Independent SAGE briefings, it was discussed that 87% of People who have been on ICU with covid still have problematic symptoms 2 months after they were supposed to have recovered (mind you, being on ICU is a major insult, so that figures)

.... One issue with Covid is the unusually large %, compared to other more common viruses, who require O2 or ICU This hammers the patients, as well as health services

The other is that the more serious progression of the disease is vascular, which can cause serious organ damage, mostly not unique to Covid, but occurring at a much higher rate than for other viruses around in the West

We were debating sending kids to school or not with a friend in another country who sends her 3 kids to secondary/primary/nursery because "they'll catch it and be over with" and in her opinion I'm being to precious to not send mine in. My argument was not death, but the long time potential damage not even to me, but to my kid. And she asked for stats/data which I tried finding, but couldn't. So thanks everyone for the small bits of info :) All post if I find some more definitive studies. I think I found my rubber bone for the week.

The TImes has a front page report that a UK vaccine rollout might take only 3-6 months

Hopes grow for coronavirus vaccine by Easter

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hopes-grow-for-coronavirus-vaccine-by-easter-rdgkvxhgh

"Covid-19 immunisation programme could be quicker than experts predict, say government scientists
...
Scientists working on the Oxford vaccinee_ hope it could be approved by regulators before the start of next year"

@Quarantino

Bloody hell. I'd be scared shitless if I lived locally, to be quite honest. This whole thing does make me feel quite helpless sometimes.

I think most will be avoiding Jesmond Waitrose.

Actually I think there's had to be a huge local volunteer effort to deliver food to 300-400 students isolating.

(In private housing.)

Do we know what percentage of students at Northumbria live away from home? And now many remain at home?

And I guess they have already had face to face if staff are testing positive.

So possibly lots of families exposed even without the students taking flight

I stayed at home when I went to uni. We couldn't afford for me to live away. Most other students were local too.

Looks like 23% of students are international, from 136 countries, and far more students than last year at 33,500.
www.northumbria.ac.uk/international/northumbria-and-your-country/.

Looks like ~43% of students lived at home, though that was 2 years ago it's the best data I can find: www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/16047922.research-finds-43-per-cent-university-students-living-home/.

Apologies if this has been covered but presumably it was only those in halls tested and I can't find this number anywhere. I am guessing that is largely first years and guesstimating about 6000 ?

Do we know how many were tested?

Sounds like there are many other students at Northumbria with it than just those tested positive

Bbc just interview 2 students. 1 lived in a flat where her and one other got symptoms and tested positive. The 3 others in flat not tested but isolating in accordance with rules but now have symptoms, but have decided no need to have a test... it wasn't clear if that was uni policy or what they had just decided

@Piggywaspushed the 2 students interview by bbc one was a 3rd year, other 1st year.

Actually wasn't clear if 3rd year in halls. I assumed not from what she said

Anecdotally, yes a lot of the Northumbria students are more likely to be local. Newcastle uni is the more traditional uni where you'd be more likely to have students from elsewhere. Northumbria have very good courses for nursing and physio etc where you might find its local residents. I've considered a couple of courses at Northumbria before. For eg they run ma courses with the Sage and Baltic, and V popular midwifery, physio and OT courses where I know a few mature students have enrolled.

That's a bit generalising though. Both have good art and history and architecture depts, though Northumbria has a wider range of things like fashion or illustration etc. Newcastle has a big medical and dental school; more likely to have students from elsewhere.

Both are changing a lot though, it's a whole since I was there!

Again anecdotally there's a big student area / accommodation near shieldfield. That started going up care wise from the 15 th sept; by the 25th it was v high. (I've been screen shorting the Argis map.)

It's also near popular student / arty bars and close to the city centre.

It always used to be that students did the first year in halls and then went elsewhere to private flats; I think that extra accommodation may have encouraged more to remain in purpose built student flats? Possibly at Northumbria especially.

Does anyone know where those tests have been counted?^^ Have they been added to Newcastle cases over the last few days?

If they are over the last week or two, that means general community cases up here aren't quite as bad as it feels.

If not I feel we're fucked.

@NeurotrashWarrior have a look at the dailies.
It's something else I find fascinating from a communications perspective - because Cornwall is tiny and has had a tiny daily positive count, it's been really obvious on which days the factory outbreaks counted in. And my guess is that the statement is made to the press after it can be reasonably expected that the data set is complete, ie about 5 days later.

That's what I think anyway.

@BigChocFrenzy

The TImes has a front page report that a UK vaccine rollout might take only 3-6 months

Hopes grow for coronavirus vaccine by Easter

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hopes-grow-for-coronavirus-vaccine-by-easter-rdgkvxhgh

"Covid-19 immunisation programme could be quicker than experts predict, say government scientists
...
Scientists working on the Oxford vaccinee_ hope it could be approved by regulators before the start of next year"

And then the next page has an article detailing all the problems with testing, like the Newport Lighthouse lab supposed to be ready in August and still not ready.

There isn’t one item of strategic planning that has worked as far as I know, so I can’t see the vaccine being a magic solution.

• which doesn't address what I meant it to address, which is that they count them in over a period of time, not in one dollop. Our numbers have gone from 24-41 daily over a two week period, to 2 yesterday.

@BigChocFrenzy

It would be more ethical to request younger people have the vaccine - that at least is intended to protect them too - than to request they allow themselves to be infected with Covid

No one suggested they allow themselves to be infected

Morning all. Someone posted a link here that let you check the restrictions in your area and I can’t seem to find it. If anyone knows it I would be so grateful if you could post it again!

@littleowl1

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-54373904

Apologies to others in the thread who have heard this before!

@TheSunIsStillShining

We struggled with whether to send our daughter back to school. I wanted to know the number of cases in my area every day. So I ended up setting up a data service

I send an email summary every morning of the number of cases in your area - whether cases rising/falling etc - one for each council in England.

Loads of lovely mumsnetters have found it a handy way to keep on top of cases and risk locally. You are welcome to sign up for your council’s email if it helps at all.

www.covidmessenger.com

.

Newport Lighthouse lab supposed to be ready in August and still not ready

The labs are ready, there are just not enough staff to run them. At the end of the day, you can build facilities, equip them, and have them ready, but if you don't have the staff to run them, you are sunk.

NHS are desperately trying to recruit, perhaps we should widen the net to Europe..... oh wait...... .