Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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@PrayingandHoping I agree that exposing knowingly is wrong without agreement. I would be surprised at that sort of strategic planning given the omnishambles on all other fronts. Just can’t help wondering if the students have helped out the rest of us in general.

But exposing young people knowingly to something which ok is unlikely to kill them but could still effect the rest of their lives is totally irresponsible.

But is it not irresponsible to expect young people to put their lives on hold for the extended / indefinite period of time?

I know if I had been 18 again and had only had to think about myself, I would have taken COVID with all its potential consequences (including long COVID and everything else that follows) over long-term impact on education and short-term social isolation. I may make a different choice now but (i) I am in a very different and privileged position and (ii) I only got there because of my education.

From @FrancoisBalloux on twitter:

We are in the midst of a major crisis. Whatever we do, there will be deaths due to the virus, to poverty, hunger, various preventable causes, resurgence of childhood diseases, strife and resentment, lost opportunities and crushed dreams ...

There is no solution to #COVID19, only tradeoffs...

One of the problems with CFS and other post viral conditions, is that they possibly happen after vaccinations too (gulf war syndrome, being the obvious questionable one here, but obviously that was with many novel vaccines designed to counter biological weapons), we don't actually know enough to say, so for very low risk individuals, any option of getting the disease or vaccine may have similar risks.

The ethics of imposing or even rewarding/encouraging individuals to get infected to provide a buffer of immune people are almost certainly wrong, but that doesn't mean a lot of people won't choose to do it anyway - "better to get infected now, then I won't worry about taking it home to granny at Christmas"

Fyzz no Leeds isn't on the list...

I know if I had been 18 again and had only had to think about myself, I would have taken COVID with all its potential consequences (including long COVID and everything else that follows) over long-term impact on education and short-term social isolation.

"better to get infected now, then I won't worry about taking it home to granny at Christmas"

Well I would have gone, but that would have not been a considered decision on the basis of not getting it badly, not infecting granny at Christmas and the impact on my education.

I would have gone because I wanted to go and I wouldn't have thought about any possibility of getting it at all. I would have naively hd a vague thought that I probably wouldn't get it at all, but if I did I'd have assumed I would probably be mild. The education bit was definitely a side-line to enjoying myself with freedom, and the thought of bringing it home would not really have registered with me.
I don't think I was particularly selfish for an 18yo, simply wouldn't have looked too far into it.

This is a thread of local data for schools etc; there was a report of 65 or 62 students testing positive about a week ago.

I have wondered if nursing and medical students have been required to have tests? Not sure how that would work though.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/coronavirus-school-closures-live-covid-18920521

Has anyone seen data on how many of the infected actually have symptoms 1-3-6-8 months on?

You wont like this www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-09-29/nine-in-ten-recovered-covid-19-patients-experience-side-effects-study-shows

But it doesnt say, probably because no-one knows yet, how long the symptoms last.

The NHS cant test all its doctors, cant see them testing students.

Tim Spector (Zoe) estimates it is 10% in 3 weeks and 1 in 50 after 3 months:

its around 1 in 50 of symptomatic infections after three months- but does depnd on the exact definitions used- however you look at it- it is a large number of people affected that will increase w more cases -so not just about excess deaths.

While it is clearly a meaningful number at the population level, I do not think we can expect 18-22 year olds to worry about "long COVID".

and another- not going to do much for their studies if they are constantly tired www.medscape.com/viewarticle/938345?src=mkm_covid_update_201001_mscpedit_&uac=366415HX&impID=2597977&faf=1

When full studies get underway on Long Covid, important stats to collate asap are its incidence, duration and severity wrt age

It would be more ethical to request younger people have the vaccine - that at least is intended to protect them too -
than to request they allow themselves to be infected with Covid

"better to get infected now, then I won't worry about taking it home to granny at Christmas"
I'm sure some might think like this, but the student I know and all flatmates are being extremely cautious because of an outbreak in their block. Saying that they'll only hang out as a flat group for a while etc. That doesn't sound like kids who don't care if they catch it or not.

I don’t blame students for not wanting to get it, but I can see why so many went to university as usual. They’re in a difficult position, really is rotten for them.

Local paper says it's over 850 students.

I agree re worry of cfs at uni.

I developed hypothyroidism then and the way it destroyed normal ability to be a student and complete studies to the best of my ability was soul destroying. It's not a great way to start out in life.

No hint from them how they uncovered 700 symptomless cases, apart from testing flat mates.... they haven't got testing capacity at the uni so must have bought it in privately, I guess?

People will be pissed off as there were testing issues not so long ago!

*Around 300 student households in private accommodation are already self-isolating, with Newcastle and Northumbria universities having to provide food parcels, while figures show that 115 new Covid cases were recorded in the Shieldfield and Heaton Park area between September 21 and 27 – one of the highest neighbourhood figures in England.

Shieldfield area has been rising noticeably for a couple of weeks.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/newcastle-northumbria-university-coronavirus-cases-19041696

In addition, 11 members of staff at Northumbria Universityy and seven colleagues at Newcastle Universityy have also tested positive for Covid-19.*

Sorry this was my comment:

Shieldfield area has been rising noticeably for a couple of weeks.

RedToothBrush thanks for looking.

Just seen this on Fb, re the outbreak at Northumbria:

"My cousins son came home from Newcastle uni Monday as he said loads were going home as they were scared they were about to lock them all in. And then he tests positive for Covid Wednesday 🤦🏻‍♀️ so sounds like they’re taking it all over the country "

Oh dear. It must be awful, they must be so panicked.

300 private houses SI; that will be in local communities. And a lot in jesmond, the party area. That's where people have been seeing students out drinking a lot in recent weeks.

I also forgot about the student accommodation they built on top of a Tesco supermarket in central Gateshead.... (the NE thread just reminded me.)

Bloody hell. I'd be scared shitless if I lived locally, to be quite honest. This whole thing does make me feel quite helpless sometimes.