Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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couple of weeks I guess. Terrifying that only 10% have symptoms!

Wow to Northumbria Uni!

And the vast majority do not have symptoms.

I've got to say i thought I has misheard when listening to LBC

i don't like to say I told you so re uni students but I did a couple of weeks ago.

Two universities that are very close together in terms of distance - takes 5 mins to walk between some of the main buildings, and accommodation also close together. Plus an FE college and one in Gateshead. Loads of new accommodation has been built in recent years, obviously all close blocks of rooms and flats in the centre of the city. Most if the dark areas in the pic.

Loads of student houses, Edwardian Tyneside flats, alongside bigger, older residential houses further out.

Both unis have a large population of teaching hospitals, hcp and teacher training courses; obviously students will be SI but it makes me nervous when there could be asymptomatic cases.

What worries me a bit is the rising cases to the west of the city which is where there's a mix of student houses, locals on low incomes and a high percentage of mixed ethnicities, particularly Asian families. It's a sharp spike to the left on the pic.

I'm in a very low case area on the map and we've had a primary bubble closed today at my sons school.

"So how can it be that the SAGE/GOS estimates of R and the growth rate point to a possible acceleration in the speed at which the epidemic is growing in England (and indeed in the UK as a whole), while REACT-1 and the ONS infection survey are both reporting some evidence, albeit not very clear evidence, that epidemic is growing more slowly now than in previous weeks? Well, there’s quite a lot of statistical uncertainty about all these estimates. And it’s important to point out that none of these reports are saying that numbers of infections are now shrinking – only that the numbers may be growing more slowly than they were a couple of weeks ago. (To be precise, the REACT-1 interim report’s estimates do include the possibility that the number of infections is falling, but that isn’t their main conclusion, and there is a great deal of uncertainty about their estimates. We’ll possibly know more next week when REACT-1 publish their report on the whole of their latest survey round, and not just on part of it.)

“But one potentially important point about the SAGE/GOS ranges for R and the growth rate is that the models behind these estimates use a range of data, including numbers of hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths. For those data sources, patterns of increase or decrease are delayed compared to changes in new infections, because it takes time after someone has been infected before they may need hospital treatment or, sadly, die from their infection. The current R and growth rate estimates cannot have fully taken changes in those figures into account, because some of the changes have not yet occurred. So it could be that the estimation process for the SAGE/GOS estimates hasn’t yet been able to catch up with very recent information from the two infection surveys on changes in case numbers. It could be that the number of new cases is increasing more slowly than it was a couple of weeks ago. But we absolutely can’t be certain of that yet, and we must remember that REACT-1 and ONS are still concluding that infections are increasing rather than decreasing. Measures to reduce the rate of increase continue to be vitally important.”

Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, The Open University.
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-latest-r-number-and-growth-rates-estimates-published-by-the-government/

i don't like to say I told you so re uni students but I did a couple of weeks ago.

That's so fucking pompous! Apologies.

But we all knew it would get out of hand; hence the measures that were swiftly brought in.

@NeurotrashWarrior

i don't like to say I told you so re uni students but I did a couple of weeks ago.

That's so fucking pompous! Apologies.

But we all knew it would get out of hand; hence the measures that were swiftly brought in.

To play devils advocate, given even if a vaccine was ready tomorrow, it would take months to roll out.

Is getting a substantial chunk of the population exposed, who are generally of low risk, and sequestered away from grandad generally, a bad thing? May it not help bring R down?

Neurotrash When you're right, you're right.

Shame the universities and government aren't listening.

I'm wondering whether for some universities what's happening now will cause a huge breakdown in relations between university and city / town in which it sits. Particularly if the infections in the student population spread into communities with high numbers of vulnerable groups which have student accommodation within them.

Where have those Northumbria uni cases been allocated? To Newcastle or their home addresses? Newcastle's numbers are nowhere near that....

That's so fucking pompous! 😂😂😂
Almost as pompous as suggesting drinking bleach or shoving a lit bulb up your bum would cure covid?

The Northumbria 770 cases were probably spread over a period of time.

Newcastle has reported several days with 100+ cases. The number jumped from 27 positives per day in mid-September. The university outbreak explains the sudden spike.

Students would tend to have very mild symptoms and may well have a much higher % asymptomatic than the general population
However, the % still sounds high

Studies the RKI have done in Germany towns e.g. Bad Feilbach and Kupferzell

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Gesundheitsmonitoring/Studien/cml-studie/cml-studie_node.html

found only 14.5% and 16.8% resp. genuinely had no symptoms

Some of the students may just be presymptomatic - it can take several days
Some may have had mild symptoms and didn't recognise them as Covid
Some may have had mild symptoms and didn't mention it to anyone befoe because they didn't want to isolate

Is getting a substantial chunk of the population exposed, who are generally of low risk, and sequestered away from grandad generally, a bad thing?

Whatsnext a good question

In theory it sounds good. However new studies are saying the young suffer more from long Covid so I wouldn't be too slap dash

As someone how got post viral fatigue from a sick bug and now/still has Chronic Fatigue Syndrome 20 years on its not something to be swept under the carpet that it doesn't matter if they don't get the standard serious Covid symptoms and illness. Other side effects could be life changing

I agree Praying. I had glandular fever as a student and still suffer from some after effects 25 years later.

Part of the problem I suspect was that I tried to keep going, which meant I didn't properly rest, but also because I was at uni and friends kept an eye on me, but I wasn't really telling people how bad I felt, no one suggested I saw a doctor or suggested it wasn't a good idea to keep going.
That meant I finished the term (6+ weeks later) and got home before dm exclaimed in horror and sent me to the doctor. I worry that, especially as it's being said to be milder in youngsters, that groups of inexperienced 18yo won't know when it actually is needing medical intervention, and if they do, how to put it across so it doesn't get heard on the phone as panicky youngster.
I have a friend who as a student walked into the GP and said "help, I think I've got meningitis" and was told by the receptionist to stop being dramatic and go away. She collapsed (thankfully not with meningitis) while walking away to a phone to call an ambulance. So I'm perhaps projecting there.

"Is getting a substantial chunk of the population exposed, who are generally of low risk, and sequestered away from grandad generally, a bad thing?"

Well, it's very hard on those young students, many of them just 18 and maybe their first time away from home

It would be different if they volunteered to take the risk and "take one for the team", but they didn't
and now they are locked up and many will be nervous, some frightened

The risk of serious harm from Covid at their age is v low, but we shouldn't be blase about that

• a few students in the USA have died and a larger number have suffered longterm symptoms

So if we also get many thousands of students infected, that is to be expected in the UK too

btw, from a current thread, sounds like many parents will be collecting their kid, whatever the rules, so it will spread

@PrayingandHoping I’m sure it’s not zero risk, but I’m equally not sure if there is a better path. The best would have been elimination but that ship has sailed, so surely the alternative is a slow exposure so hospitals don’t get overwhelmed and the economy doesn’t completely tank.

I’m finding it really odd the Northumbria uni know about 690 asymptomatic cases. They’re directing students with symptoms to book an NHS Test, they don’t appear to have their own testing facility.

I think all of us, all ages, who are going out anywhere do so knowing we are taking this risk and accepting it.

I wouldn't support a policy of deliberately setting up students or anyone to be infected, unless they volunteer for this

That is a possibility ..... invite healthy 18-35 year-olds living alone and prepared to isolate for 14 days, on full pay ?

A controversial suggestion ....

@Witchend ditto. I ploughed on too early, made myself v v ill and had to take months out of uni

Easy to do when you're young. You think you're invincible and stubborn and just naive as to how it will effect the rest of your life

@Fyzz

RedToothBrush Was there a positivity graph for Leeds which is now under the same restrictions as NE?

I will have a look shortly. I suspect so.

Instead of one pdf area by area breakdown this week there were two which is the first time they've done it...

@whatsnext2 I agree hospitals must not be overwhelmed. Absolutely

But exposing young people knowingly to something which ok is unlikely to kill them but could still effect the rest of their lives is totally irresponsible.

Luton has been listed as an "area of concern".... again....

Yep. Bedford on the way back up too .

Lincoln's rate has risen sharply, I noticed.