Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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934 cases from NI today compared to 273 last Friday!!! Has anyone heard of any reason for that huge jump?

Thanks tdm. Can't get the notification back now but will bear in mind...

So I've been looking through the percentage of positivity charts.

First up, Liverpool managed to break the graph by exceeding the positivity axis. However it does look like it now has peaked.

The same goes for Knowsley and Halton (Halton not pictured here).

Finally the pattern seems to be a little more advanced in Warrington with an apparent downward trend. Warrington has had 4 days of a decline in postive cases which has ended today with a slight increase again today.

Over in Greater Manchester and Lancashire its a much more mixed picture.

Manchester still seems to be firmly on an upward trend. So does Burnley which looks particularly bad.

However Bolton seems to have levelled off and the % of positive cases is much lower than in many other hotspots.

Finally the NE.

Newcastle and South Tyneside look to be following a similar pattern to the Merseyside graphs. It looks like there has been a peak.

But Hartlepool is particularly worrying. It has one of the highest levels of deprivation in the country and was one country which has been regarded most at risk in terms of its vulnerability. This looks to be playing out. There is no sign of let up here.

I suspect Hartlepool and Burnley, unless there is some change this week, could be looking at further restrictions if they are not careful.

@RedToothBrush I think Bolton was on tighter restrictions until this week when it was brought into line with GM? I think I saw a news report interviewing a club owner that could therefore reopen. May explain why they have (hopefully) turned the curve

It could be that.

It could also be getting on top of the testing shortages. (Which I strongly suspect to be most prevelant in places with very high percentage postivity rates).

Either way it does look a lot better compared to where it was.

@MRex That is an excellent point.

MRex that’s a very useful breakdown

from what I gather in GM things are levelling off but there is a very large uptick in Manchester borough which is largely to do with student outbreaks .

6898 today .Holding steady.

265k tests processed yesterday it says which is one of the highest days. 500k per day by the end of the month still looks unlikely to me but double that number of tests, assuming they are able to be turned around quite quickly, would be enormously helpful given where we are right now.

6968 it now says

So the numbers are dropping but the R number increasing. Does this mean that next week we will expect numbers to start climbing again.

RedToothBrush Was there a positivity graph for Leeds which is now under the same restrictions as NE?

There are different reports about the R - with Imperial suggesting it might be edging down. The case numbers to appear to be steadying despite a bit more testing. Hopefully that continues.

The case numbers look OK but hospital admissions have crept up again. The numbers for England have changed from 310 yesterday to 328 today. North East is, unfortunately, high again (although lower than it was yesterday).

I know 4 people local to me now whose tests have got lost in the system which is not great...

Useful thread/ summary of data from the "3 independent studies (the REACT-1 study from Imperial, the COVID Symptom Study (CSS) from Kings and the weekly ONS infection survey) published in the last 2 days"... "have shown broadly similar trends" by Dr Raghib Ali, Senior Clinical Research Associate, MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge.
mobile.twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1312050820947546114

Govt estimates of R have been updated today and are slightly higher than last Friday:

www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

Latest R number range for the UK
1.3-1.6

Latest growth rate range for the UK
+5% to +9%

In the English regions, NE, Yorshire and London figures slightly higher than the NW, but this is all within the margin of error - could easily be the other way round

East of England, SE, SW have the lowest figures, but stil R >1.0

So some differences between the different sources, with different datasets and maybe modelling

this is going to be a huge impact on numbers in newcastle surely

More than 750 students at Northumbria University have tested positive for Covid-19.

A spokesperson for the university said:

As of Friday October 2, we can confirm that we are aware of 770 Northumbria University students who have tested positive for Covid-19, of whom 78 are symptomatic.

26,675 students at Northumbria uni, so about 3% of the University population. That's pretty high. When did they go back?

Sorry if I’m being a bit dense! But why, if cases are lower than last week’s, is the R rate increasing? I can’t get my head around all the statistics.