Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@Baaaahhhhh
Yes, I did think that was worrying.

I think also worryingly people will see that and then think "oh heck, why am I giving correct details if no one else is" and then give false ones as well.

I received a sort of generic message from NHS app today but I couldn't access it because I needed to verify it was me, and I didn't know how to (it was apparent I needed a code but I didn't know I had one!!). I now cannot retrieve this notification and can't get to it via the app.

Who on earth designed this thing???

@SansaSnark Cornwall is being used as an example why Covid is over exaggerated; deniers are saying that the amount of tourists over the summer didn't have an impact on cases or deaths. And deaths were low generally (yes I can't see why that proves anything!) Technically they had more cases than the north east but mostly 20-30 age.

But Cornwall doesn't have the population density of other places.

And yet looking at figures, it does look like it's beginning to grow more than other parts of the south for some reason.

And they should take note of the Ne and other areas which sky rocketed very easily from similar numbers (denser population though.)

When are the ONS figures released? I know they are weekly on a Friday but wasn’t sure when they’ll be out.

@Baaaahhhhh

Has anyone seen the thread on not giving correct contact details for track and trace? An alarmingly high number of respondents are admitting to giving false information. This non compliance must be part of our problem, is it the 30% that t&t are unable to contact? Are other countries more compliant? Does that match with the east/ west divide in the map above?

..... Divide on the map is likely due to competent leadership, which tends to encourage more compliance and efficient test, track & trace systems, which help stop infections spreading, as well as again inceeasing trust in competence

@Goldistheanswer

When are the ONS figures released? I know they are weekly on a Friday but wasn’t sure when they’ll be out.

They were really late last week. I think after 4 or 5pm.

Liverpool positivity rate up again today but only to previous recent high. I think thats still not terrible.

Cases data from week 23rd-29th September 2020
Data extracted covering testing up to 29th September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 1433, an increase of 243 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 287.7 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 16.2%.

I read the false details thread and was disgusted

It's one thing if people can't pay bills if they isolate, hence just avoid giving details - AND also avoid going to piubs, restaurants etc to minimise their risk of infection

Very different to those who choose to go out for meals, drinks etc and not only don't give details, but actually give false info and waste the time of the track & trace people
They seem to just want to return to their pre-Covid WOL and fuck the vulnerable

Very selfish and antisocial;
they'd include the sociopaths & psychopaths, but also the denialists and conspiracy loons

Surveillance is out:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/923668/WeeklyyCOVID19SurveillanceeReportweekk_40.pdf

PHE Summary Report and Surveillance report out today

For period to 27 September

Cases from last 2 weeks:
Pillar 1 median age 44
Pillar 2 median age 32

"Several surveillance indicators suggest that COVID-19 activity at a national level has continued to increase during week 39.

• There are several indicators that combine to provide a picture of the number of COVID-19 cases and trends over time, of which cases reported is just one.

• Case detections, hospitalisations and deaths continue to increase.

• Some non-specific community indicators suggest that reports of respiratory symptoms are stabilising or
declining, however, this may not be related to COVID-19.

• Indicators used to make this assessment include, but are not limited to, the number of patients in hospital with coronavirus, seroprevalence, modelling data, ONS and React surveillance data, positivity rates and NHS indicators such as GP attendance, calls to the NHS 111 service and hospital admissions."

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/923668/WeeklyyCOVID19SurveillanceeReportweekk_40.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/923665/COVID199WeeklyReportt30Septemberr_2020.pdf

ONS Infection Survey pilot: Enland, Wales & NI

18-24 September

England: 1 in 500 people
Wales: 1 in 500
NI: 1 in 400

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland2october2020

" The estimate shows the number of infections has increased in recent weeks.

•	In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19, with the current rates highest in teenagers and young adults.

•	There is evidence of higher infection rates in the North West and North East, as well as Yorkshire and The Humber and London.

.....
• There is uncertainty around the incidence rate for England in the most recent period;
there is some limited evidence that the incidence rate may be levelling off following steep increases during August and September, however the wide credible intervals mean it is too early to say."

ONS charts showing infection increases in NW , NE and among young people:

@Piggywaspushed

I received a sort of generic message from NHS app today but I couldn't access it because I needed to verify it was me, and I didn't know how to (it was apparent I needed a code but I didn't know I had one!!). I now cannot retrieve this notification and can't get to it via the app.

Who on earth designed this thing???

I got this too. The code I had to enter was my own phone's pin to unlock it, nothing to do with the app. And all it said was that the app was working and gave some stats for what it had done over the past week. I thought it might be a weekly update?

@BigChocFrenzy Im absolutely loving all these charts and the link you posted late yesterday. Fab! Thank you!

Also, am I going potty or what?? I have gone over with a fine tooth comb the latest watchlist published alongside the surveillance report last night - fourth link down here. www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

It's mentioned all over media that Sheffield has been upgraded from Area of Concern to Area of Enhanced Support. But for the life of me, I cannot see Sheffield on that list and it looks to me like Sheffield has been removed. Either the watchlist published has a mistake in it or Sky News is wrong.

Not quite sure how to handle this conumdrum for my Covid Messenger emails. Phhhh...

[quote littleowl1]@BigChocFrenzy Im absolutely loving all these charts and the link you posted late yesterday. Fab! Thank you!

Also, am I going potty or what?? I have gone over with a fine tooth comb the latest watchlist published alongside the surveillance report last night - fourth link down here. www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

It's mentioned all over media that Sheffield has been upgraded from Area of Concern to Area of Enhanced Support. But for the life of me, I cannot see Sheffield on that list and it looks to me like Sheffield has been removed. Either the watchlist published has a mistake in it or Sky News is wrong.

Not quite sure how to handle this conumdrum for my Covid Messenger emails. Phhhh...[/quote]
....
I can't see much about Sheffield

LG cases tracker has it in the top ten councils for daily cases:
lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker

In the Imperial table:
imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table

The App smeared those 2 links !

imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table

lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker

@Baaaahhhhh

Has anyone seen the thread on not giving correct contact details for track and trace? An alarmingly high number of respondents are admitting to giving false information. This non compliance must be part of our problem, is it the 30% that t&t are unable to contact? Are other countries more compliant? Does that match with the east/ west divide in the map above?

I would have doubted that so many people do that, but I've seen it myself and we haven't even been out that much.

We went to a farm shop cafe a couple of weeks ago. It's always busy, so we had to leave our details and they would ring us when our table was ready. A bit later on the person who was taking bookings was wandering around looking for the people in front of us in the queue and said that she thought they had given a false number. She said it in a way that made me think that this wasn't the first time.

It's so irresponsible that I have no words.

Returning to the PHE surveillance report which goes up to 27 September

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/923668/WeeklyyCOVID19SurveillanceeReportweekk_40.pdf

Hospitalisations in England:

"In week 39, the weekly admission rate for hospital and ICU/HDU admissions have continued to increase.

The hospitalisation rate was at 2.99 per 100,000 in week 39
compared to 2.13 per 100,000 in the previous week.

The ICU/HDU rate was at 0.39 per 100,000 in week 39
compared to 0.25 per 100,000 in the previous week (Figure 32)

By NHS regions, the highest hospitalisation rate continued to be observed in the North West
however the ICU/HDU rate was highest in the Midlands (Figure 33).

By age group, the highest hospitalisation rate was observed in the 85+ year olds
and the highest ICU/HDU rate was observed in the 75-84 year olds (Figure 34)"

I'm delighted to see Imperial have recognised the need to lag the council level data to 26th.

I saw yet another online tool yesterday on one of the main stream news sites showing cases up to 28th Sept for which only about 75% of cases are reported at council level so majorly understating the cases at local authority level....

Really frustrates me when i see this. So misleading for the reader.

PHE also examine infections via track & trace of origin

"Educational settings" is one of the significant sources of infections outside the home

and the report also splits this into type of setting, which is dominated by both primary & secondary schools, with primary playing proportionately more of a role than one might expect

It's just because of the size of primary schools; Jan 2019 data: the average state-funded primary school has 282 pupils on its roll, the average state-funded secondary school now has 965 pupils on its roll. Then you have just 165 higher education institutions for 2.4m older students or average 14.5k per institution. Even with the much lower infected numbers, we should of course expect more primary school outbreaks, the outbreaks are just ever so much smaller.

www.besa.org.uk/key-uk-education-statistics/#:~:text=How%20many%20schools%20are%20there,pupil%20referral%20units%20(PRUs)
There are currently32,770schools in the UK. Of these,3,714are nurseries or early-learning centres,20,832are primary schools,19are middle schools and4,188are secondary schools. There are2,408independent schools,1,257special schools and352pupil referral units (PRUs).

I feel we are "living" that education chart today.

We got the dreaded email from school last night that there's a confirmed case in DD's year and entire year now self isolating at home.

Hope to goodness it's been contained and everyone safe. So worrying. Trying not to think about it too much.

Ive been following these threads for ages but havent joined in. Can someone knowledgable explain whether the time lag in testing could have an impact on the charts showing current infections? Ots just lots of us are waiting over a week for results.