Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 21

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 21 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
UK School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

A lower R, but still > 1.0, would fit with the less sharp rise in cases we are seeing

The official R for the UK and regions is normally updated Fridays on

www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

The North East had a bad rise in hospital admissions today. Stockton seemed to have rising cases, the rest improving a bit. Lets hope the decline in new cases is genuine, not just a test shortage.

Where do you find the daily hospital admissions by area

Interesting about the Cornwall factory outbreak (I live in the staff catchment area, so I'm getting updates from the horse's mouth as it were - or at least from our Chief Officer who sits on the local health board)
If you look at the PHE map, the big flashing blue light is bang on the factory, shading to a lighter blue radially outwards.
And I wonder if the outbreaks now that we're getting local data can actually be tracked back that minutely to a point of origin.

I'm rather grimly minded of the Victorian cholera epidemics and how they were eventually traced back to the area served of one specific water-pump. You know lots, John Snow!

@Dementedswan

Where do you find the daily hospital admissions by area

.... NHS England daily stats - link in OP:

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

No UK wide that I know - you have to download for each nation

@Cattermole

Interesting about the Cornwall factory outbreak (I live in the staff catchment area, so I'm getting updates from the horse's mouth as it were - or at least from our Chief Officer who sits on the local health board) If you look at the PHE map, the big flashing blue light is bang on the factory, shading to a lighter blue radially outwards. And I wonder if the outbreaks now that we're getting local data can actually be tracked back that minutely to a point of origin.

I'm rather grimly minded of the Victorian cholera epidemics and how they were eventually traced back to the area served of one specific water-pump. You know lots, John Snow!

.... That's what track & trace should be doing Tracing back all the local infections - and further afield too - to find which ones probably originated at the factory, infected by a factory worker etc

@Dementedswan - www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Thank you

This is quite interesting. It's from RP131's Twitter showing actual cases by specimen date against expected cases if cases were doubling every 14 days.

He also has a useful chart of Scotland's 7-day incidences:

Richard@RP131

Scotland
- but important to note this is by REPORT DATE as I've discovered the data from the dashboard API isn't what it says it is!

I didn't realise the Western Isles had cases now, that's very bad news if anyone gets very unwell, Inverness and Glasgow hospitals are a long way away even by helicopter and if the edge of hurricanes come over then flying can be dangerous. I hope they have sufficient contingency plans layered onto other contingency plans.

Across Europe: 7-day incidence / 100,000 for 20-26 September
from Jelmer Visser@DieTukkerfries

Apologies if this has already been linked to and I’ve missed it

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/29/science.abd7672

Relatively large scale study in India

That European map is fascinating, such a west /east divide, both within the continent and within countries.

This is interesting re Cornwall, I think: www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/four-new-coronavirus-cluster-areas-4563483

The numbers don't sound high, but there are new clusters popping up fairly regularly all over the west of the county. I think we are possibly only just scratching tip of the iceberg in terms of finding infections.

I've been told by people who need tests that the only option at the moment is driving to Plymouth- for me that would be a 90 minute drive there and back, and I don't have enough petrol in my car for it- so if I showed symptoms tomorrow, it would be very difficult for me to get tested!

As a teacher, I'm a bit concerned about the large number of kids absent with "bad colds"- really abnormal for this time of year. They are not showing classic coronavirus symptoms, so are not getting tested (and possibly some parents are lying to avoid self isolating). School is also being a bit laissez faire about sending kids with coughs only home.

We are doing mask wearing in the corridors/communal areas where social distancing is impossible (not that it's possible in classrooms either)- but increasingly students aren't bringing in masks, and it's not something we can truly enforce.

That Europe map looks like a weather front.

Are they doing something different in the east of Europe?

It depends which country. In general they're going with higher test positivity.

Does anyone know if there is a reliable gov website where the watchlist status is published and kept up to date. Typically its published in the PHE surveillance report published weekly on Friday. But given the announcement this evening of additional areas being added there must be another source? Anyone know where this might be?

I think it's just announced on a Thursday and put in the surveillance report on a Friday afternoon. I can't see any other official source for it.

@Fyzz

Are they doing something different in the east of Europe?

..... Central Europe is low too, Germany obviously

Re the NHS app track and trace - RP131 on Twitter has looked at the source code and worked out the parameters for being flagged as a contact of +ve person:
twitter.com/RP131/status/1311580249021444097
"I didn't realise quite how long you needed to spend near someone for the NHS app to trigger. This is not an official table, but pretty sure it's right. It's also dependent on the number of days since the person got symptoms. It can be a combination of both distances too."

That algorithm is really interesting, quite sophisticated

• it's the detection of those genuine events that is the problem

Much needed tool from HoC Library staff: 👏🏽

Jennifer Brown @jen_brown93

Me and my @commonslibrary colleagues @carlbaker , @olihawkins and @DanFergusonHoC have made an interactive map of coronavirus restrictions.

Find out what restrictions apply where you are by clicking the link

visual.parliament.uk/research/visualisations/coronavirus-restrictions-map/?long=-3.1&lat=54.8&zoom=9&showmore=1

Has anyone seen the thread on not giving correct contact details for track and trace? An alarmingly high number of respondents are admitting to giving false information. This non compliance must be part of our problem, is it the 30% that t&t are unable to contact? Are other countries more compliant? Does that match with the east/ west divide in the map above?