Is it really worth all this?

[Dustballs]

What are we shutting down for? What are we trying to save?

I don't understand what the purpose of this is anymore.

@Dustballs

I actually want my family to get it now - so we can build immunity/T cells to fight Covid now, next year or whenever. It's endemic now. They'll need immunity. And surely it's better to get sick, now, when they're young - rather than later on.

I don't believe a vaccine will be as effective as actually having had the virus itself.

You’re off your rocker to want your children to catch a virus that we have no idea what the long term effects of are.

I hope you haven’t got boys, lots of ACE receptors in the testicles and there have been a few reports of testicular damage.

I don’t like scaremongering but fgs accept you don’t know everything and listen to the people clever enough to realise they don’t know but have the skills to find out.

@MakeOfThatWhatYouWill

I hear you OP, but you won't get much sympathy for holding this particular opinion on mumsnet, in fact it will be hinted you are somewhat of a monster. But, you aren't, and many people are thinking the same as you.

Me included I am thinking the same x

i think it's only when the effects of mass job losses really kicks in that many people will change their mind

In all likelihood this is just the start of many more viruses that will spread and in our lifetimes will be living with many more outbreaks. We cant react like this every time. 2 million Cancer patients haven't received treatment because of it. Suicides are massively increasing. Millions are loosing jobs/business/homes. Hundreds of thousands of kids are already seriously behind in their education. To protect a tiny proportion of the nation, a massive percentage of whom would have got seriously ill/died in the next year or 2 anyway.

Can I ask the people who don’t want lockdowns etc how many deaths they would be happy with? 100,000, 200,000? When the undertakers can’t cope with the dead anymore and we have mass graves?

I don’t want to live in a society like that. Every life is valuable whether you are a baby or a pensioner.

This virus is here for good. Everyone will get it at some point. What they’re trying to stop is everyone getting at the same time. That’s what all the lockdowns are for. So we’re not all off work or in hospital at once

@Cornettoninja - I don't pretend to know everything. I listen to a variety of views from scientists and none of them agree - do they?

There are many experts of all sorts that also feel this lockdown strategy is doing more harm than good. I haven't plucked my opinion on this from nowhere.

Could you post the information about testicular damage please. How many reports have their been?

blahblah Can I ask how many people you’ll accept being unemployed.

@Blahblahblahallthetime

Can I ask the people who don’t want lockdowns etc how many deaths they would be happy with? 100,000, 200,000? When the undertakers can’t cope with the dead anymore and we have mass graves?

I don’t want to live in a society like that. Every life is valuable whether you are a baby or a pensioner.

I totally agree. I also think that every lost life is a tragedy whether it is lost due to covid, or due to the poverty and despair caused by lockdown.

The 'disruption' from a huge number of preventable deaths in the UK would outweigh what we are currently seeing in my opinion.

I'm pretty sure you know the answer to this. It's been repeated over and over for 6 months.

If cases go up, deaths will go up. Roughly 1% of people die from the virus. That means its not a massive risk for most individuals. And because of the way averages work, for the majority of people it is much, much less than 1% risk. Behaviorally that makes it hard for people, because its a relatively hard jump for humans to make from personal risk to societal risk.

But if we get to a point where we have 100,000 cases per day, as has been analysed was the case at the end of March, and we do nothing, then roughly 1-2 weeks after that we will have about 10,000 people every day needing hospitalization, and about 1-3 weeks after that we will have 1,000 people dying per day. Most of them will be dying in hospital. Hospitals don't have the capacity, particularly the critical care staff, to deal with that many people needing that level of care. That's why we built the nightingale hospitals. You know this.

Now putting it in perspective at that point, roughly 1,600 people die each day in the UK anyway, so it would be about a 60% increase in daily deaths.

But then a few other things come into play.

Although 1,600 people die in the UK each day, not all of them die in hospital.

And remember there is exponentiation growth, and in this scenario we are doing nothing to stop the spread, so if cases double each week then after another week you have 2,000 deaths per day, then 4,000, then 8,000, then 16,000. So we are up to 16,000 deaths every single day, after just another 4 weeks, if we do nothing. Now that is 10 times the number of people who normally die in a day, of all other causes, ongoing and increasing every single day.

Obviously at some point this becomes self limiting, because presumably at some point people start to think that going out at all is a bad idea even if there are no restrictions in place.

Of course all of this affects the availability of things like supply chains, water, electricity etc.

But, as I said, I think you already know this because it has been talked about a lot. So which bit is it that doesn't resonate with you?

@AlecTrevelyan006

i think it's only when the effects of mass job losses really kicks in that many people will change their mind

This.

When the person has lost their own job... when their relative is having a mental health crisis the penny will drop

So if everything opens back up, entertainment venues, sporting events, nightclubs etc what does everyone think will actually happen?

heffa the entertainment industry is non-viable forever?
Filming has only just re-started (underwritten by government) - it’s teetering right now.
So are we not going to ever watch a new film? A play? A match?

Also - having lost friends and family at young ages - I can't get excited about saving an extra year or two of someone's life whose been lucky enough to get to their 80.

I feel lucky to be in my 40s. The mindset I can't get my head around is that we are all entitled to live into our 90s. I don't get this at all.

No government can control this thing. No one can.

I don’t want to live in a society like that. Every life is valuable whether you are a baby or a pensioner

Indeed.

Every person trying to provide for their family, every worker unable to return to work, everyone who is not vulnerable but forced to lockdown, every businessperson facing financial ruin, everyone struggling not seeing their family or friends with their mental health in decline, etc, etc

Everyone.

Everyone has to mean these people too, whether people like that or not.

It will be being passed around asymptomatically and some form of immunity will be building.

It's not going to be such a drama as time passes and the hope will be that a vaccine will be a step change towards that but getting to such an equilibrium point is the task at hand.

Who would want to be in charge right now - it's a no win / no quick and easy solution situation.

A testing system that could cope would stop it getting as out of control.

@Hearwego

It was said on GMB the other day, lockdowns just kick the can down the road, but don’t stop the virus. Locking down will not merely suppress it for a few weeks/ months but it just emerges again. Unless there’s a vaccine, then surely we should learn to live and manage it? No I don’t see why this economic pain is worth this.

Yep. Agree. We have to learn to live with it. Could be years, if ever, before a vaccine is found.

@TheLastStarfighter

I'm pretty sure you know the answer to this. It's been repeated over and over for 6 months.

If cases go up, deaths will go up. Roughly 1% of people die from the virus. That means its not a massive risk for most individuals. And because of the way averages work, for the majority of people it is much, much less than 1% risk. Behaviorally that makes it hard for people, because its a relatively hard jump for humans to make from personal risk to societal risk.

But if we get to a point where we have 100,000 cases per day, as has been analysed was the case at the end of March, and we do nothing, then roughly 1-2 weeks after that we will have about 10,000 people every day needing hospitalization, and about 1-3 weeks after that we will have 1,000 people dying per day. Most of them will be dying in hospital. Hospitals don't have the capacity, particularly the critical care staff, to deal with that many people needing that level of care. That's why we built the nightingale hospitals. You know this.

Now putting it in perspective at that point, roughly 1,600 people die each day in the UK anyway, so it would be about a 60% increase in daily deaths.

But then a few other things come into play.

Although 1,600 people die in the UK each day, not all of them die in hospital.

And remember there is exponentiation growth, and in this scenario we are doing nothing to stop the spread, so if cases double each week then after another week you have 2,000 deaths per day, then 4,000, then 8,000, then 16,000. So we are up to 16,000 deaths every single day, after just another 4 weeks, if we do nothing. Now that is 10 times the number of people who normally die in a day, of all other causes, ongoing and increasing every single day.

Obviously at some point this becomes self limiting, because presumably at some point people start to think that going out at all is a bad idea even if there are no restrictions in place.

Of course all of this affects the availability of things like supply chains, water, electricity etc.

But, as I said, I think you already know this because it has been talked about a lot. So which bit is it that doesn't resonate with you?

This scenario would never happen.

The Imperial Model, which I presume you're getting this from, was a guess, a complete shot in the dark. It as also not based on any realistic idea of human behaviour - it was based on a completely fictional, unrealistic situation in which ill people continue to spread the illness far and wide, even when they're so ill they're on a ventilator (which is obviously not physically possible). I wish someone would come out and explain that all the available evidence now indicates that the Imperial Model is entirely and utterly wrong. It's not surprising that it's wrong btw - it was based on zero data - but it's about time it was completely debunked as people obviously still believe it.

@Blahblahblahallthetime you say every life is valuable. Of course it is. Did you campaign to lockdown every flu season? Because no deaths are acceptable if they can prevented by social distancing. So are you going to social distance and avoid your families houses every winter? Are we never allowed celebrations ever again? After all there is risk of viruses being spread there.

@Dustballs

www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/04/30/what-do-testicles-have-to-do-with-covid-19-coronavirus/amp/

This article makes very clear that this is still an unknown but this is something that may not become apparent for a long time yet. It may never do but it’s a big risk to take with our children’s future fertility imho. The same with heart damage, lung damage, brain damage and the possibility reinfection may lead to a worse illness (ADE is pretty terrifying if you fancy reading up on that).

Not that I think this is a reason to shut down everything but I object to the notion anyone would purposefully want their child to catch covid. Particularly when there’s reports of waning immunity which would provide no future protection at all.

Surely it’s not overwhelming healthcare and getting through the winter

Whilst having some semblance of economic activity

@Cornettoninja- thank you.

Read TheLastStarfighter's post. It's in there. It's all about the exponential numbers. Sadly, I really think most - or maybe just many - people do not understand this.